would I like to see more research being done on the effects of open net-cages on wild stocks? Yes I would.A proper study would take Juvenile Coho salmon, treat half with Slice and leave the other half untreated. Tag them and release them. Record survival rates of returning adults and note if there were any differences in survival rates. Repeat for 10 years. That's how you tell if there is any Lice impact, not some farcical mathematic exercise reaching agenda driven conclusions.
Would I like to see more research being done on sea lice, specifically transfer to wild stocks and population-level effect? yes I would.
Do we have to wait 10 years to do something? NO we certainly do not.
We already have a number of lice studies done in BC, and the rest of the world. Certainly enough to invoke the precautionary principle.
Yes there are restrictions in the utilization of mathematical studies and the extrapolation onto non-lab based ocean food webs.
Yes there are assumptions inherent in ALL studies (INCLUDING the Irish one).
Yes, studies utilizing escapement data from DFO (w/o fish fences) are utilizing inaccurate data. Over a broader scale - some of that variable error can be dampened-out - which is what Kroksek did.
Without a fish fence - replicating the Irish study would also have to depend upon escapement data.
The cons to the Irish study would be cost and a long time commitment. Myself and others on this forum already stated that they wouldn't want to see this as a stalling tactic.
There are other equally-valid experimental designs for studies - such as a BACI (Before-After Control-Impact). If you have already pissed in your own soup and NOT done the "Before" part - that narrows your options.
If we had insisted on scientifically-defensible siting criteria - instead of making it convenient- we might not be in this untenable situation.
Instead you may have to do find a “untreated” part of the BC Coast that most closely resembles your situation, and assume that sea lice levels would have been similar to your own BEFORE the farms arrived. This is called a Extensive Post-Treatment Study – which is what Krkosek did. And yes - there are assumptions here, as well.
There is a real nice and brief primer on the setting-up of studies for watersheds at:
http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/wld/documents/wrp/wrpr_1.pdf
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