Data presented during this Inquiry did not show that salmon farms were having a significant negative impact on Fraser River sockeye. However,as noted above, the statistical power of the database(containing fish health data from 2004 to 2010) was too low to rule out significant negative impact. I accept the evidence of Dr. Korman and Dr. Dill that scientists need another 10 years of regulatory data (until at least mid-2020) before they can more confidently identify any relationships that may exist. As well, other than a few studies related to sea lice(mostly in species other than sockeye), DFO has not completed research into the effects of diseases and pathogens from salmon farms on wild Fraser River sockeye. Nor has DFO done any research into the cumulative effects on sockeye of having multiple salmon farms sited on their migration route. In sum, there are insufficient data (almost no data) to evaluate cause and effect relationships, and insufficient data (in terms of a time series of fish health data) to look for correlations between fish farm factors and measures of sockeye health such as productivity. As a result, significant scientific uncertainty remains around the effect of salmon farms on Fraser River sockeye salmon.
Continuing to collect fish health data from salmon farms into 2020 will eventually allow for a more statistically robust assessment of whether fish farms along the sockeye migration route are affecting Fraser River sockeye. However, mitigation measures should not be delayed in the absence of scientific certainty. Much research may be done around farm–sockeye interactions and cause and-effect relationships, which is not dependent on extending the time series of the fish health database. Additionally, in light of the uncertainty, and while DFO takes steps to better account for proximity to Fraser River sockeye in farm siting, it is appropriate to take measures to prevent any likelihood of harm from increasing. For that reason, I recommend no increase to salmon farm production in the Discovery Islands until such time as the impact of salmon farming on Fraser River sockeye can be determined, with some degree of certainty, to be minimal.
In summary, I have concluded that net-pen salmon farming in the Discovery Islands poses a risk of serious harm to Fraser River sockeye through the transfer of diseases and pathogens. The full extent and likelihood of that harm cannot be determined because of scientific unknowns. Precautionary measures should focus on filling the knowledge gaps and enabling DFO to adapt mitigation measures to new scientific information. I recognize that DFO may need some time to fulfill my research recommendations. However, as described above, I am also satisfied that British Columbians will not accept more than a minimal risk of serious harm to Fraser River sockeye from salmon farms. Therefore, it is appropriate to set deadlines to ensure that the uncertainty about the extent and likelihood of harm posed by salmon farms does not languish unaddressed.
In the recommendations that follow, based on the evidence I heard about the state of research and the strength of regulatory data, I have chosen September 30, 2020, as the date by which DFO should be able to assess, adequately, the likelihood of net-pen salmon farms causing serious harm to Fraser River sockeye. If, by that date, DFO cannot confidently say the risk of serious harm is minimal, it should prohibit all net-pen salmon farms from operating in the Discovery Islands. If, before that date, DFO finds farms to pose more than a minimal risk of serious harm to Fraser River sockeye, those farms should be promptly removed.
