N2013
Well-Known Member
Nice app and model.
What forecast model do you use in Windy and Why
- Thread starter Marley
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Nice app and model.
trophywife
Crew Member
windy, helps me to plan a couple days ahead to see if it rising (wind and wave) or settling and somewhat of what is trending.
I use Windy, but stopped paying the annual fee in favor of PredictWind.com ($30+- annual fee gets more benefits, but not required).
PredictWind seems to have more weather models, and I like their "Table" page, where it will average out all the models I chose to use (at least 6 of them, or only however many I include), so I get one "average" wind-speed forecast figure for each hour, at each exact spot I'll fish!
For a good chunk of change they have a tidal CURRENT map, too, and I'll check into that. But for only one quarter of the year, as it's expensive.
Also, on this forum I just learned about Buoyweather.com (not "bouyweather)", and it looks good to see wave heights, on a map, especially. Will explore that further. I get 2 day forecast for free, but would have to pay for forecasts beyond that.
One almanac said that alot of these weather forecasts were a bit optimistic (i.e. too LOW of a wind forecast), so be careful.
South east forecasts are not as accurate as other forecasts, apparently, so be careful.
Windy.com also seems to have a topographical map, which is great.
PredictWind seems to have more weather models, and I like their "Table" page, where it will average out all the models I chose to use (at least 6 of them, or only however many I include), so I get one "average" wind-speed forecast figure for each hour, at each exact spot I'll fish!
For a good chunk of change they have a tidal CURRENT map, too, and I'll check into that. But for only one quarter of the year, as it's expensive.
Also, on this forum I just learned about Buoyweather.com (not "bouyweather)", and it looks good to see wave heights, on a map, especially. Will explore that further. I get 2 day forecast for free, but would have to pay for forecasts beyond that.
One almanac said that alot of these weather forecasts were a bit optimistic (i.e. too LOW of a wind forecast), so be careful.
South east forecasts are not as accurate as other forecasts, apparently, so be careful.
Windy.com also seems to have a topographical map, which is great.
ECMWF
Because it is closer to the truth than the others in our area (comox-qualicum). I was checking all models all summer, and settled on ECMWF.
Its not perfect, that's for sure. I've been caught in the wind when it was off by a couple hours. My lesson learned was that ECMWF can give a rough idea of the DAY'S weather, but hour to hour its not going to be right on.
Now I want to try oceanconnect.ca !
Because it is closer to the truth than the others in our area (comox-qualicum). I was checking all models all summer, and settled on ECMWF.
Its not perfect, that's for sure. I've been caught in the wind when it was off by a couple hours. My lesson learned was that ECMWF can give a rough idea of the DAY'S weather, but hour to hour its not going to be right on.
Now I want to try oceanconnect.ca !
trophywife
Crew Member
doesnt anyone fall asleep to the wx ladies voice anymore?
Alex_c
Well-Known Member
Oceanconnect has tide and current maps for free.
Good info - thanks.
A tidal current STATION is good.
A tidal current MAP is a game-changer:
Actually, now that's I've played with it a bit, I did find a way to show a "current map", actually, and not just a STATION here and there like I was thinking.
Some day I hope they expand the current map beyond the Southeast half of Vancouver Island - but still pretty helpful, and free.
Their WAVE map is also good, and covers more areas.
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BC Coast Pilot
Well-Known Member
Don't get Windy.com (19.99 year red logo) confused with Windy app or windy (free and blue logo) I run Windy pro app which does all the stuff being discussed and more, real time winds, fronts and isobars and tides and currents and swell etc....etc.
It was a deal with a LIFETIME subscription for 70 bucks on sale.
I always question using a European model (ECMWF) opposed to NOAA (GFS27+) which I would assume has more local historical database. Using the MFWAM model allows for swell height prediction
It was a deal with a LIFETIME subscription for 70 bucks on sale.
I always question using a European model (ECMWF) opposed to NOAA (GFS27+) which I would assume has more local historical database. Using the MFWAM model allows for swell height prediction
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The models vary a lot, and I think the best way to determine which models are the most accurate is to look at actual Data Validation (aka "Forecast Accuracy"), for a specific location. This is what I look at.
I pick the models that are the most accurate, usually the best 5. The app can then AVERAGE those best 5 forecasts for me, automatically, into one wind speed figure. Five is way more accurate than just one. It has 8 models to choose from.
The GFS model appears to be the least accurate, on this one analysis/time period, at this one location. But is good other times/places, though.
Some models are better at predicting certain weather phenomena, such as summer thermal-induced winds, etc.
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Like I wrote in my last post, I like to use about 5 of the most accurate/validated models, at the same time - the app averages them out (or I can see all 5) for me.
But looking at up to 8 models (if you want), you can see the patterns, but you can also see the real OUTLIERS that, when correct, indicate real danger....such as the 29 mph forecast below....you'd want to be careful here, even though the other models only show a calm/safe 7 knots and 5 knots each. So be wary of the "average" reading that I tend to look at. Better safe than sorry.
Keep in mind that the definition of chaos is "10 weathermen, in the same room, at the same time!" - yeah, it's an art, and not purely a science.
Good post.
Yes, certain models, such as PWG and PWE (in my post above) don't show very long-term forecasts - bummer.
trophywife
Crew Member
sometimes ya just gotta go stick your nose out and feel it. go from there.
BC Coast Pilot
Well-Known Member
There was a day when we wrote out every synopsis and forecast and every local and did our own interpretation. Your way seems harderLike I wrote in my last post, I like to use about 5 of the most accurate/validated models, at the same time - the app averages them out (or I can see all 5) for me.
But looking at up to 8 models (if you want), you can see the patterns, but you can also see the real OUTLIERS that, when correct, indicate real danger....such as the 29 mph forecast below....you'd want to be careful here, even though the other models only show a calm/safe 7 knots and 5 knots each. So be wary of the "average" reading that I tend to look at. Better safe than sorry.
Keep in mind that the definition of chaos is "10 weathermen, in the same room, at the same time!" - yeah, it's an art, and not purely a science.
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BC Coast Pilot
Well-Known Member
Interesting that GFS gets no credit as I find it most accurate. The ECMWF has incorrect wind direction when compared to the real time locals. The GFS is spot on as I observe it on location and compared to real time locals
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SpringVelocity
Crew Member
Over the years I have been using a variety of wind forecast models.
Although they are good they are still just an estimate and may or may not be accurate.
So I usually use them but pay attention to pressure changes, weather fronts. Probably the most important is what tides and currents are doing.
Currents have to be the number one thing most boaters don't understand. You can a 5 knot wind with an opposing current and it can be ugly. Colder the day worse it will be.
In South island the most accurate thing for Victoria and Sooke area is the pressure gradient graph on BWD. Larger the pressure swing stronger the wind.
Although they are good they are still just an estimate and may or may not be accurate.
So I usually use them but pay attention to pressure changes, weather fronts. Probably the most important is what tides and currents are doing.
Currents have to be the number one thing most boaters don't understand. You can a 5 knot wind with an opposing current and it can be ugly. Colder the day worse it will be.
In South island the most accurate thing for Victoria and Sooke area is the pressure gradient graph on BWD. Larger the pressure swing stronger the wind.
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