What forecast model do you use in Windy and Why

[Marley]

Hi Guys

I got caught out the other day with much stronger winds than I expected in the forecast on Windy, had to cut the trip short due to the waves.

Looking closer at the app there are a bunch of different forecast models that seem to give different results. As an example I am looking at the weather tomorrow and the ECMWF model is showing snow while the NAM model is showing rain here in Vancouver. Curious as to what everyone uses as their forecast model and why.

Thanks

 

[N2013]

Combo of windy & environment Canada marine weather while Also taking into consideration tides and what the past day had been like out on the water. They’re not always right either.

 

[Eden Island]

Environment Canada seems to be a worst case forecast, which I file under "good to know". I'm new to Windy, but the forecasts I've looked at are usually much closer to reality. Only in a big blow last September did Environment Canada line up with several of the Windy models.

Next step for me is to start looking more closely at the different models in Windy. I'll be following this thread.

 

[islandboy]

Combo of windy & environment Canada marine weather while Also taking into consideration tides and what the past day had been like out on the water. They’re not always right either.

Agreed. As I row off Esquimalt, the wave/wind variation can be concerning.
Now I tend to view the weather/wind/tides for the day prior and the coming day and apply up to a four hour "error" window. The assorted webcams and forecasts at https://windisgood.com are also benificial.
WNW winds down JDF can shift easily and any SW wind is not to be trusted. I always zoom out on windy to get a better idea of the variables.

 

[seachicken]

I've used Windy for 7 or 8 years but haven't looked at different models. On the inside of the Gulf Islands off Nanaimo I don't know Windy enough to know localized water conditions however I do check the and cross reference as Windy seems to give fairly accurate estimates on time of events. I've spent lots of time at our cabin watching the weather change fairly accurately based on the forecast from Windy. Environment Canada Marine Forecast seems fairly accurate to tell me how it's going to be generally, 15 SE isn't going to be pleasant and up to 25-30 NW will be getting there too. I do feel if a change is forecast mid day that Windy is pretty accurate down to the hour and this goes up into the central coast in my experience. Environment Canada doesn't give time estimates as close as Windy.

 

[Alex_c]

I have been using https://oceanconnect.ca/

It uses the highest resolution and latest models for Canadian waters (HRDPS). Windy does not use these models, and so far oceanconnect has been the most accurate. Really like the currents layer too.

Data sources - OceanConnect

oceanconnect.ca

The operationnal High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System or HRDPS is a set of nested limited-area model (LAM) forecast grids from the non-hydrostatic version of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model with a 2.5 km horizontal grid spacing over one main Pan-Canadian region. The pilot model of the HRDPS is the Regional Deterministic Prediction System or RDPS (GEM Regional model). The fields in the HRDPS high resolution GRIB2 dataset are made available four times a day for the Pan-Canadian domain for a 48 hour forecast period.

Users who will benefit most from using these data are those for whom a detailed forecast of surface temperatures and winds is important. Especially during the change of seasons and in wintertime when rapid changes in temperature and winds cause phase transitions of precipitation (freezing rain to snow to rain for example), 2.5 km forecasts could add much value. Also in the case of short-term forecasts in the presence of complex terrain or along shores, the influence of changes in altitude, topography and nature of the terrain will be better described for phenomena at this scale (lake or sea breezes, local valley flows, phase changes, etc.). Even over less rugged terrain, or over water away from shore, these more precise forecasts could be useful, repeatedly over a long period. As well, for hydrological forecasts on smaller basins, the HRDPS should be considered.

Windy is good though, I find the HRRR model is the the most accurate compared to GFS, ECMWF, NAM, and ICON.

Ultimately your favourite weather app is just window dressing for a model’s data. So whatever app has the highest resolution and most accurate models for your locale will be the best bet

 

[Douglas01]

Hi Guys

I got caught out the other day with much stronger winds than I expected in the forecast on Windy, had to cut the trip short due to the waves.

Looking closer at the app there are a bunch of different forecast models that seem to give different results. As an example I am looking at the weather tomorrow and the ECMWF model is showing snow while the NAM model is showing rain here in Vancouver. Curious as to what everyone uses as their forecast model and why.

Thanks

I use windy ECMWF and HRDPS (Canada specific model) along with weather Can marine weather for both winter in Haida Gwaii and summer in Queen Charlotte Strait, the HRDPS model is really accurate but only gives 48 hour forecast.

 

[cpony]

I use Windy but set the layer to wind gusts. It give you the potential winds when they are inconsistent predictions, especially this time of year.

 

[Gong Show]

I have been using https://oceanconnect.ca/

It uses the highest resolution and latest models for Canadian waters (HRDPS). Windy does not use these models, and so far oceanconnect has been the most accurate. Really like the currents layer too.

Data sources - OceanConnect

oceanconnect.ca

Windy is good though, I find the HRRR model is the the most accurate compared to GFS, ECMWF, NAM, and ICON.

Ultimately your favourite weather app is just window dressing for a model’s data. So whatever app has the highest resolution and most accurate models for your locale will be the best bet

Very cool, thank you.

 

[scott craven]

I have been using https://oceanconnect.ca/

It uses the highest resolution and latest models for Canadian waters (HRDPS). Windy does not use these models, and so far oceanconnect has been the most accurate. Really like the currents layer too.

Data sources - OceanConnect

oceanconnect.ca

Windy is good though, I find the HRRR model is the the most accurate compared to GFS, ECMWF, NAM, and ICON.

Ultimately your favourite weather app is just window dressing for a model’s data. So whatever app has the highest resolution and most accurate models for your locale will be the best bet

The only drawback I see is that the wind forecasts are only 48 hours on https://oceanconnect.ca/

 

[Alex_c]

The only drawback I see is that the wind forecasts are only 48 hours on https://oceanconnect.ca/

True - Lots of other models for longer term forecasts. I suppose there is a trade-off between accuracy and longer term forecasts. I always make my final decision to go fishing based on 72-48 hour forecasts, since weather changes so much. Most other models other than Environment Canada’s forecasts don’t account for outflow from places like Howe Sound, so those models will almost always show light winds when in reality it’s howling 20 knots. Ultimately it’s just another tool in the box.

 

[Marley]

Looking closer at Windy I see you can actually compare all the forecast models. It will be interesting to see which one is correct today as not all of them are calling for snow. I am hoping that it’s just rain and I can avoid the traffic disaster on the way home.

 

[Coyote Spooner]

I have been using https://oceanconnect.ca/

It uses the highest resolution and latest models for Canadian waters (HRDPS). Windy does not use these models, and so far oceanconnect has been the most accurate. Really like the currents layer too.

Data sources - OceanConnect

oceanconnect.ca

Windy is good though, I find the HRRR model is the the most accurate compared to GFS, ECMWF, NAM, and ICON.

Ultimately your favourite weather app is just window dressing for a model’s data. So whatever app has the highest resolution and most accurate models for your locale will be the best bet

When using the Windy App, where do you find these different models? Do you have to get Premium?

 

[Alex_c]

When using the Windy App, where do you find these different models? Do you have to get Premium?

Click on the menu icon and scroll down. I am on the free version.

 

[Douglas01]

I have been using https://oceanconnect.ca/

It uses the highest resolution and latest models for Canadian waters (HRDPS). Windy does not use these models, and so far oceanconnect has been the most accurate. Really like the currents layer too.

Data sources - OceanConnect

oceanconnect.ca

Windy is good though, I find the HRRR model is the the most accurate compared to GFS, ECMWF, NAM, and ICON.

Ultimately your favourite weather app is just window dressing for a model’s data. So whatever app has the highest resolution and most accurate models for your locale will be the best bet

 

[Whole in the Water]

I use Windy and BigWaveDave

 

[Duffy]

I use Windy and BigWaveDave

I also use Windy Bigwavedave and also look at the weather network

 

[Damn Ugly]

-ECMWF is (usually) the most accurate long-term forecast (3+ days out) - https://www.windy.com/articles/what-is-forecast-model-3397?49.219,-122.901,5

-NAM5K is the most detailed (and accurate) for near-term localized weather and winds.

-How to get the most out of the Windy.com Compare feature - https://community.windy.com/topic/26304/understanding-the-compare-forecast-feature-in-windy-com

-A little bit of background & detail on all the different weather models - https://community.windy.com/topic/12/what-source-of-weather-data-windy-use

 

[Marley]

-ECMWF is (usually) the most accurate long-term forecast (3+ days out) - https://www.windy.com/articles/what-is-forecast-model-3397?49.219,-122.901,5

-NAM5K is the most detailed (and accurate) for near-term localized weather and winds.

-How to get the most out of the Windy.com Compare feature - https://community.windy.com/topic/26304/understanding-the-compare-forecast-feature-in-windy-com

-A little bit of background & detail on all the different weather models - https://community.windy.com/topic/12/what-source-of-weather-data-windy-use

Thanks. Will check out the links.

 

[searun]

I was a big fan of Windy until I came across Predict Wind. I like it far better, and for WCVI it seems to perform better - as in more reliable. Aside from that, my next go to is to pull up the NOAA ocean buoy reports and look at a few farther up the hill from where we fish to get a feel for potential weather heading our way. Tides also make a big difference pushing up the seas, so good to consider wind/wave direction along with tide movements. https://www.predictwind.com/