Slabby20
Active Member
Let's hope their right 
http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20091217/SPORTS/712179970/1008/SPORTS02#Huge.spring.chinook.run.predicted.for.Columbia.River
Huge spring chinook run predicted for Columbia River
By Wayne Kruse
Special to The Herald
One of the best things about winter around here is that spring comes along right behind it.
That's a particularly joyful arrangement this winter, with the awesome announcement last week by Washington/Oregon fisheries biologists that they're predicting a Columbia River spring chinook run of 470,000 fish in 2010. If that many of the big, sleek, hard-charging salmon do show up, it would be the largest return to the Columbia since 1938.
Last year's fishery, short but oh so sweet, was on a run of 169,300 springers.
Granted, biologists have had a spotty record recently with their run predictions, leading to confusion about regulations, emergency closures, overfishing by some user groups and underfishing by others. But the members of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC), which advises the two states on Columbia fisheries science, say they've developed new computer models that hopefully will result in predictions closer to the mark.
According to Stuart Ellis, current chair of the TAC and a member of the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission, the advisory group was suspicious of the record number of spring chinook jacks counted at Bonneville in 2009. Recent forecasts relying heavily on jack counts have overstated the actual return of adult fish by an average of 45 percent, Ellis said, so models that take into account other factors, such as ocean conditions, have been developed.
“The number of spring chinook jacks returning in 2009 was four times greater than anything we've seen before, which made the number a statistical anomaly,” he said. “We're still projecting a strong return for upriver springers next year, but we've tempered the jack return with other indicators.”
Run predictions of the seven models chosen by TAC range from 366,000 to 528,000 fish, and the committee agreed on the average, 470,000.
If that even comes close, you're going to see a line of boat trailers heading down I-5 like ants heading to a picnic, with me right in the middle. I was fortunate enough to fish the run for the first time last year, in the company of my two sons and T.J. Nelson of Lake Stevens, and I recommend the fishery highly. They're prime, fat, active salmon, easily accessible to small boats, and the standard gear setup and fishing techniques don't require rocket science.
It's not particularly pristine fishing, right in downtown Vancouver with 18-wheelers thundering overhead on the I-5 bridge, but hey, it's close and easy and civilized.
http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20091217/SPORTS/712179970/1008/SPORTS02#Huge.spring.chinook.run.predicted.for.Columbia.River
Huge spring chinook run predicted for Columbia River
By Wayne Kruse
Special to The Herald
One of the best things about winter around here is that spring comes along right behind it.
That's a particularly joyful arrangement this winter, with the awesome announcement last week by Washington/Oregon fisheries biologists that they're predicting a Columbia River spring chinook run of 470,000 fish in 2010. If that many of the big, sleek, hard-charging salmon do show up, it would be the largest return to the Columbia since 1938.
Last year's fishery, short but oh so sweet, was on a run of 169,300 springers.
Granted, biologists have had a spotty record recently with their run predictions, leading to confusion about regulations, emergency closures, overfishing by some user groups and underfishing by others. But the members of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC), which advises the two states on Columbia fisheries science, say they've developed new computer models that hopefully will result in predictions closer to the mark.
According to Stuart Ellis, current chair of the TAC and a member of the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission, the advisory group was suspicious of the record number of spring chinook jacks counted at Bonneville in 2009. Recent forecasts relying heavily on jack counts have overstated the actual return of adult fish by an average of 45 percent, Ellis said, so models that take into account other factors, such as ocean conditions, have been developed.
“The number of spring chinook jacks returning in 2009 was four times greater than anything we've seen before, which made the number a statistical anomaly,” he said. “We're still projecting a strong return for upriver springers next year, but we've tempered the jack return with other indicators.”
Run predictions of the seven models chosen by TAC range from 366,000 to 528,000 fish, and the committee agreed on the average, 470,000.
If that even comes close, you're going to see a line of boat trailers heading down I-5 like ants heading to a picnic, with me right in the middle. I was fortunate enough to fish the run for the first time last year, in the company of my two sons and T.J. Nelson of Lake Stevens, and I recommend the fishery highly. They're prime, fat, active salmon, easily accessible to small boats, and the standard gear setup and fishing techniques don't require rocket science.
It's not particularly pristine fishing, right in downtown Vancouver with 18-wheelers thundering overhead on the I-5 bridge, but hey, it's close and easy and civilized.
