Lumber Prices

All these factors are going to cause a major decline in the amount of new homes being built. Also, don’t forget BC Housing is making a step 4 energy code mandatory for all new houses later in 2023. That means more expensive windows, likely more spray foam insulation etc causing higher build costs. Step 3 isn’t easy to reach although we do get there on each of our houses.

The govt. wants x millions of houses over the next y years and I don’t see that happening. The free money for the past few years has royally effed us in the b.
I'm working on a Step Code small grocery store in South Surrey. They want the doors to have some crazy U-value that isn't achievable with any product. Not to mention it's a grocery store with automatic sliding doors that will open every 4 seconds when someone enters the building, so who cares how good thermal performance the doors have, if they are always open....

Or triple glazed fibreglass windows for low income housing, and putting an operable vent in every room. Insulate the crap out of the walls but then the tenants just keep the windows open all year long.
 
I'm working on a Step Code small grocery store in South Surrey. They want the doors to have some crazy U-value that isn't achievable with any product. Not to mention it's a grocery store with automatic sliding doors that will open every 4 seconds when someone enters the building, so who cares how good thermal performance the doors have, if they are always open....

Or triple glazed fibreglass windows for low income housing, and putting an operable vent in every room. Insulate the crap out of the walls but then the tenants just keep the windows open all year long.

Sounds like the non-sensical hoops I was jumping through to get a permit I can't use....
 
All these factors are going to cause a major decline in the amount of new homes being built. Also, don’t forget BC Housing is making a step 4 energy code mandatory for all new houses later in 2023. That means more expensive windows, likely more spray foam insulation etc causing higher build costs. Step 3 isn’t easy to reach although we do get there on each of our houses.

The govt. wants x millions of houses over the next y years and I don’t see that happening. The free money for the past few years has royally effed us in the b.
Is there a deadline set that I should be trying to dodge for these new codes?
I'm sitting on a property on the island I hope to build on in 2023 or 2024. Was leaning towards 2024 as I survive on tourism and the uncertainty of rates/ market correction/ potential income dip had me thinking letting it sit a year wasn't the worst idea. I hadn't heard of the step 4 code kicking in for late 2023.... Anyone have a rough idea of what kind of construction cost increases on a fairly standard 2500' house we will see due the code changes?
 
Is there a deadline set that I should be trying to dodge for these new codes?
I'm sitting on a property on the island I hope to build on in 2023 or 2024. Was leaning towards 2024 as I survive on tourism and the uncertainty of rates/ market correction/ potential income dip had me thinking letting it sit a year wasn't the worst idea. I hadn't heard of the step 4 code kicking in for late 2023.... Anyone have a rough idea of what kind of construction cost increases on a fairly standard 2500' house we will see due the code changes?
January I believe.
I recommend enertech solutions for doing your energy audit/pressure test. Jeff is a good dude!
 
Is there a deadline set that I should be trying to dodge for these new codes?
I'm sitting on a property on the island I hope to build on in 2023 or 2024. Was leaning towards 2024 as I survive on tourism and the uncertainty of rates/ market correction/ potential income dip had me thinking letting it sit a year wasn't the worst idea. I hadn't heard of the step 4 code kicking in for late 2023.... Anyone have a rough idea of what kind of construction cost increases on a fairly standard 2500' house we will see due the code changes?

Check with your local municipality. As every jurisdiction has the choice to implement it. For Nanaimo it’s January 2 that step 3 comes into play.
 
I'm working on a Step Code small grocery store in South Surrey. They want the doors to have some crazy U-value that isn't achievable with any product. Not to mention it's a grocery store with automatic sliding doors that will open every 4 seconds when someone enters the building, so who cares how good thermal performance the doors have, if they are always open....

Or triple glazed fibreglass windows for low income housing, and putting an operable vent in every room. Insulate the crap out of the walls but then the tenants just keep the windows open all year long.
Always how the owners operate the home that counts, as the above describes. I'm sure auto makers note exactly the same thing, they engineer in the best fuel efficiency they are capable of with that year's technology, and then people floor it at every stop light, carry a bunch of tools and crap around all the time, add inefficient roof racks, and so on. Then of course they complain that no one can achieve the mythical EPA L/100 km rates on the windshield sticker.
 
This is really what has changed the most in the custom world that I've seen. We're in the middle of a two year project and my clients have asked me to set up meetings with all of my trades to ask for further discounts. As the client representative I have to facilitate this. It's putting me in a difficult spot as some of these trades I've worked with for the past 15 years. The days of "preferred trades" are gone. I'm now instructed to find the cheapest price and then babysit them to make sure mistakes aren't made and the quality is still there. An impossible task. This alone is making me question staying in this line of work moving forward. What used to be a fun process is now full of resentment, stress and and unrealistic expectations. The Instagram world has also set a pretty high bar for what clients think is "normal construction" these days.
I did my last new home warranty build 6 years ago, sticking to full home reno and wineries now. I am absolutely adamant that we use my trades, they provide estimates for budgeting but no time wasted quoting when they could be on site making money. Hard no on the project if the clients want their own trades or the three quotes bulls**t, someone else can play that game. If you're trusting me with your build, then sooner or later you have to trust my trades anyway, so that trust starts right now by accepting that they will bill fairly and deliver quality and service. Why would I take on quality assurance and responsibility for a cheaper trade I don't normally work with? It's luxurious to be able to dictate terms like that, but the build book is full well into 2024 at present and I politely decline a couple of projects a week. I've spent years developing relationships with key trades, and unlike when a homeowner calls out of the blue, they take my calls and show up when required. In this crazy undersupplied skilled labour market, that's worth a lot. Therefore, I don't give out contact info to my trades, I control that and take a margin.

The custom world is not a price game, it's a service and quality game, and clients need to understand that right from the very beginning. Most of them don't realize I'm interviewing them when we meet for the first time, but I surely am. Perhaps some figure it out when I politely ask how they'll be funding the project, and what the budget is. If they're coy about disclosing budget, that tells me they're probably out of place in the custom market. "Have you considered a pre-engineered steel building?"
 
I did my last new home warranty build 6 years ago, sticking to full home reno and wineries now. I am absolutely adamant that we use my trades, they provide estimates for budgeting but no time wasted quoting when they could be on site making money. Hard no on the project if the clients want their own trades or the three quotes bulls**t, someone else can play that game. If you're trusting me with your build, then sooner or later you have to trust my trades anyway, so that trust starts right now by accepting that they will bill fairly and deliver quality and service. Why would I take on quality assurance and responsibility for a cheaper trade I don't normally work with? It's luxurious to be able to dictate terms like that, but the build book is full well into 2024 at present and I politely decline a couple of projects a week. I've spent years developing relationships with key trades, and unlike when a homeowner calls out of the blue, they take my calls and show up when required. In this crazy undersupplied skilled labour market, that's worth a lot. Therefore, I don't give out contact info to my trades, I control that and take a margin.

The custom world is not a price game, it's a service and quality game, and clients need to understand that right from the very beginning. Most of them don't realize I'm interviewing them when we meet for the first time, but I surely am. Perhaps some figure it out when I politely ask how they'll be funding the project, and what the budget is. If they're coy about disclosing budget, that tells me they're probably out of place in the custom market. "Have you considered a pre-engineered steel building?"
Yeup, I have similar talks with my clients as well. But when the sentiment changes half way through because interest rates have skyrocketed, it's all about risk management. Threats of non-payment are real right now. My first wife was really generous when we first met too. **** happens.

The new West Side standard is to hire outside consultants to double check all the contracts and billing. Nightmare.
 
Oh brother, I hear you there, I just placed a lien last week. Might not need it, but the spidey senses were tingling and the 45 days clock was running out. Takes a couple of weeks before they're served the papers anyway, hopefully by then I'll have their final cheque and can explain the lien ahead of time as a precaution rather than an attack.

I'm probably coming across as a real hardass, but experience is a tough teacher. My fully disclosed terms include 3% interest per month on invoices after 30 days. If they want me to finance their project, it's gonna cost them even more than Visa or Amex.

The other one I learnt was to take and save a picture of the first cheque received from any new client. All their banking information is right there in case things get ugly later on. Google 'pre judgement garnishing order bc' to see what I mean.
 
All these factors are going to cause a major decline in the amount of new homes being built. Also, don’t forget BC Housing is making a step 4 energy code mandatory for all new houses later in 2023. That means more expensive windows, likely more spray foam insulation etc causing higher build costs. Step 3 isn’t easy to reach although we do get there on each of our houses.

The govt. wants x millions of houses over the next y years and I don’t see that happening. The free money for the past few years has royally effed us in the b.
Those X Million of new houses are going to happen, they just won't be single family detached homes. It will be the typical four and five story wood frame. I had a meeting with a developer yesterday and we discussed any unique things in their buildings. They are already building Step 4 and have full solar arrays on all rooftops. They are getting there with building envelope and the windows of course.
 
I thought there is some talk of pre-approved/permitted multi-family designs approved by Province that can be built anywhere.
So many rumours though, the only worse place for rumours is the fish dock!!
 
I thought there is some talk of pre-approved/permitted multi-family designs approved by Province that can be built anywhere.
So many rumours though, the only worse place for rumours is the fish dock!!
I was at a Vancouver downtown core seminar this morning, the development community likes what Eby is proposing (the idea above), the Union of BC Municipalities does not agree with him and thinks they are doing fine with the permit wait times and delays.
 
The spec guys who decided to confront - rather than put off - the looming challenges presented by step code have done some impressive work. Costs are king for them, so they really drill down on meeting performance by methodology rather than materials. My Energy Advisor colleagues tell me the most common wall assembly for step 3 and step 4 homes is simple 2x6 studs on 16" centres, no exterior insulation. Simplifying building shape back in design phase and fastidious air barrier detailing is where they're getting it done. Even more interesting is step 5 homes achieving it merely by moving the 2x6 studs to 24" centres, switching from cripples to header brackets (when possible) and other efficient framing measures. One developer I know is also an EA, they built a 30-home subdivision in CR all at step 5 for 6% increase in overall build cost. Another developer/builder near me in Penticton has voluntarily engaged an EA for modeling and blower testing for an entire 400-home spec subdivision. They routinely achieve 1.0 ACH50 (really airtight) just detailing the heck out of regular poly moisture barrier.

I was at a Vancouver downtown core seminar this morning, the development community likes what Eby is proposing (the idea above), the Union of BC Municipalities does not agree with him and thinks they are doing fine with the permit wait times and delays.
Big p*ssing match coming between local govt and Minister/Premier Eby on this one. UBCM will of course defend its turf, they view the proposed blanket changes to zonings as an encroachment on local government, never mind that some of them make sense and would help alleviate their housing shortage. We asked about this point blank at all candidates meeting a week before the election, all of them waffled. Even the ones who claimed to be pro development still made noises about local communities deciding their own course. We already have legal secondary suites in Penticton anyway, moot point. Likewise the infill development zoning he's proposing to impose on all BC urban centres is already a going thing here. But still they feel their empire shrinking and fight to repel invaders.

Some of the better ones in the proposals package were overriding strata councils on their "no renters" and "no under 19s" rules. Those are unfair and discriminatory, and reversing them could open up suites really quickly.
 
Question, the resent municipal elections, and looks like the next provincial election will talk a lot about affordable/workforce housing. If building rules, code, and permitting have been raising the cost of building how do you make it affordable? Sounds like minimum $500 square foot just for the build. A small 1500 square foot house build is $750,000 plus land and site prep. Minimum $1,000,000 for an affordable house. I'm not a builder but that is what I've been told. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Not sure if this is going to derail the thread.
 
No affordable housing without affordable land! The market hasn't been able to build enough homes for years. We have the double whammy of almost zero rental housing built in the 40 years after the condo act in the late 70s, and 50,000 people a year internal immigration into BC.

Add in more recent factors like offshore investors hitting BC en masse starting with Hong Kong's return to China, and the rise of Air BnB and its like driving investors toward vacation rentals rather than longterm.

I'm convinced that market-only solutions cannot make up the gap in housing supply; they've had decades to prove otherwise. Some interventions on the demand side like interest rate increases, CMHC rule tweaks and the BC speculation tax have had some effect, but they're pretty much maxed out. From here it takes a comprehensive attack on removing supply side barriers plus financial input into housing from all levels of government. They don't have to build 60s type housing projects, the funding would be better leveraged by funding co op societies, subsidized employee housing, funded rent-to-own programs. There are lots of possibilities once it's understood that there is a wide middle ground between market-only and purely government-built housing. I've seen the miles of 60s 'council flats' in the UK. Ugh, no one wants that.
 
Wow, lots of interesting insights and knowledge on here.
But who can tell me if current cost of $350 for cedar for some raised beds will be more or less come spring?
Could be 5/4 x 6 x 8' decking (20 pieces) or 2 x10 (10 pieces). I have to spend $50 in gas to get the latter unless I time it to a Adams River viewing day or flyfishing day.
 
Wow, lots of interesting insights and knowledge on here.
But who can tell me if current cost of $350 for cedar for some raised beds will be more or less come spring?
Could be 5/4 x 6 x 8' decking (20 pieces) or 2 x10 (10 pieces). I have to spend $50 in gas to get the latter unless I time it to a Adams River viewing day or flyfishing day.
Cedar prices are dropping in the log market, not nearly as much as fir/hemlock. I would look at yellow cedar for my garden beds
 
I am building a sauna and watching the cedar prices closely.
Not dropping fast enough! And I need t&g, some clear. Ugh!
 
I’ve been in the forest industry for the last 38 years and I don’t see lumber prices dropping too much due to the constantly dropping Provincial annual allowable cut due to over harvesting, beetle kill, and forest fires over the last 80 years. Now we have the UK bidding on our wood to convert to pellets to run the Drax hydroelectric generating stations that once used coal. Too many people competing for a dwindling resource will most likely keep prices higher than normal or this will create a new normal unless there’s another global economic meltdown which I hope never happens again.
 
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