Low snowpack could be ‘disastrous’ for salmon, scientist says

[GLG]

Please get your facts right.


El Niño Conditions
El Niño conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and are expected to persist through at least the end of the calendar year. All 4 Niño indexing regions

have had warm weekly sea-surface temperature (SST) departures from normal exceeding 1 degree Celsius, with the anomalies in the far eastern equatorial Pacific exceeding 2 degrees Celsius. Average over the last month, SSTs are warmer than normal across the entire Pacific as well. The "El Niño Advisory" that was released on March 5 is still in effect. Model predictions are now showing very high chances that the El Niño will persist through the calendar year and into next winter. Chances that the El Niño will persist through spring and summer exceed 90% with chances exceeding 80% that it will last through the winter of 2015-16.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The CPC three-class July-August-September (JAS) temperature outlook has increased chances of above normal temperatures for the entire state, with chances of warmer than normal temperatures highest in the western half of the state. For JAS precipitation, there are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normalprecipitation for the entire state.
The outlook for August-September-October (ASO) is also calling for increased chances of above normal temperatures statewide. As we approach fall, the precipitation outlook is calling for drier than normal conditions for nearly the entire state. An area in eastern WA (including Pullman, Walla Walla, and Spokane) has equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation for ASO.
Last Updated: 6/18/2015

Let's not forget the Blob as well, but you do know when that started, right?

Guess that might have an effect on this years weather.

So show us a map of the historical weather of B.C. As that is what this discussion is about.

I think you have misunderstood what I meant.... I might not have been clear. I should have said in post #98
"This could have something to do with the river temps. And to think, no El Niño effect yet... that comes next year."

I'm fully aware that we a now in El Niño and have been for several months.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

I don't know where you got your info from (you gave us no link) but I prefer to get mine from this source, I think we can both agree that is a good place to start. As you can see from the picture above the El Niño is off of South America and will start to effect us in the fall. The weather we are seeing now is from the BLOB and yes I do know when that started.

This is a helpful picture of what is going on. The top one is surface temperature and the bottom on is the difference from normal.

As you can see El Niño is building on the equator and will effect us later in the year. That's why I say it's not good for next years sockeye run. The BLOB is effecting us now. Hope this clears up our misunderstanding.

 

[OldBlackDog]

Here is where the information came from.
El Nino was in effect in March .
http://www.climate.washington.edu/outlook.html
The blob was here first and we are still waiting for the results on it from the scientists.

 

[agentaqua]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...king-battle-drags-on-at-puntzi-lake-1.3145760
B.C. wildfires: Back-breaking battle drags on at Puntzi Lake

 

[agentaqua]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...-than-100-new-wildfires-in-24-hours-1.3161607
B.C. fires: More than 100 new wildfires in 24 hours

 

[agentaqua]

http://www.watershed-watch.org/medi...in-the-face-of-extreme-conditions-for-salmon/
Conservation groups call on DFO to modify their fisheries in the face of extreme conditions for salmon

 

[UkeeDreamin]

http://www.watershed-watch.org/medi...in-the-face-of-extreme-conditions-for-salmon/
Conservation groups call on DFO to modify their fisheries in the face of extreme conditions for salmon

Wondered when, or if, this might get called out.

The closure of the tidal portion of the Fraser to rec angling while all of the marine approach areas remain open is a glaring example of DFO's incompetence on this issue. Reasons stated for the closure are the low return of Stuart Sockeye and adverse migration/spawning conditions due to low flow and high temp. This rationale makes perfect sense for the non-tidal portion with all the "flossing" (i.e. snagging) bars and thus a high sockeye by catch but in the tidal section there are no such bars and it is a strictly plunking/bar-rig show which is about the most selective technique possible to avoid sockeye. In contrast the flasher/hoochie and flasher/bait trolling that occurs in the approach areas by catches a lot of sockeye. Tell me the logic behind closing the fishery that doesn't touch the sockeye requiring closure but keeping open the one that has known by catch?

We've also seen pics posted on this site of Somass sockeye suffering massive sea lice infestations of the magnitude that used to occur when the toxic mill discharges in Port Alberni caused the sockeye to delay for weeks and months without entering the river. I think it's pretty obvious that the flows and temps in the Somass are causing the same behaviour this year to the same result - i.e. increased stress and mortality on that stock.

Will be interesting to see if there is any response from DFO or how our sector reps balance future health of fish stocks versus fishing opportunities this year given the extreme conditions ….

Cheers!

Ukee

 

[agentaqua]

Fishing closures announced for South Coast

The Government of B.C. is suspending angling in streams and rivers throughout most of the South Coast due to warming water temperatures and low stream flows.

Effective July 22 through Sept. 30, 2015, virtually all angling in streams and rivers in Wildlife Management Units 2-2 through 2-12 and 2-16 through 2-19 is suspended. The geographic area ranges from south of Toba Inlet and the Toba River (which is not included in the closure) to the U.S. border. Lakes and reservoirs are not included in the closure. The closure has been put in place to protect fish stocks at a time when they are vulnerable due to low flows and high water temperatures....

Read more: https://news.gov.bc.ca/stories/fishing-closures-announced-for-south-coast

 

[Marsman]

Good info guys. It will be interesting in 4 years what the out come is. On another note I did find out that one (maybe more) of the test nets in the Fraser are using 10" nets to show low numbers of springs. In past years the test boats were told where to run the test even though they are now in the right spot where fish are moving. Games the DFO play.

Marsman

 

[Marsman]

Good Info.

Good info guys. It will be interesting in 4 years what the out come is. On another note I did find out that one (maybe more) of the test nets in the Fraser are using 10" nets to show low numbers of springs. In past years the test boats were told where to run the test even though they are now in the right spot where fish are moving. Games the DFO play.

Marsman

 

[shuswap]

Good info guys. It will be interesting in 4 years what the out come is. On another note I did find out that one (maybe more) of the test nets in the Fraser are using 10" nets to show low numbers of springs. In past years the test boats were told where to run the test even though they are now in the right spot where fish are moving. Games the DFO play.

Marsman

Albion Chinook test fishery (DFO test fishery) uses two different nets on alternating days: an 8 inch mesh net and a multi-panel net made up with mesh sizes from 6 to 9 inches. Why you ask (or you should have)? It is for representative sampling of different age classes and body sizes of Chinook migrating up the Fraser. If you were to just use one mesh size you could potentially have a size bias which could be problematic. Later on, the test fishery switches to another net for Chum (6.75 inch mesh net) on alternating days with the Chinook standard 8 inch mesh net. Not sure where you are getting 10 inch mesh size from because it isn't used at Albion. Perhaps you tell me where you are getting this information from?

http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fm-gp/fraser/docs/commercial/albionchinook-quinnat-eng.html

The other test fisheries on the Fraser (Cottonwood and Whonnock) are managed by the Pacific Salmon Commission (not DFO) who contracts out commercial fisherman to conduct this these fisheries. These target primarily Sockeye using a multi-panel net with mesh sizes ranging from 4.25 to 5.75 inch. No 10 inch mesh size used here. Again, this is for representative sampling. Fraser Sockeye are generally 4 year olds when they return, but you can get larger 5 year olds. You also don't want a sex bias, hence the reason why multi-panel nets are used. Same goes for lake inventory sampling where multi-panel nets are used so that all age classes and body sizes are represented as equally as possible. Representative sampling seems simple from the outside, but is actually very difficult to achieve because biases are always there - some potentially more prominent than others.

http://www.psc.org/info_testfishing.htm
http://www.psc.org/TestFish/Fraser_River_Panel_Test_Fishing_Policy.pdf

Now you know.....

 

[OldBlackDog]

<center style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody; font-size: 17px; line-height: 27px;">

</center>From NOAA NNVL:

July 2015 Ocean Temperatures – Conditions are currently warming up in the Pacific, and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center expects a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the winter and most likely into the spring. This image shows the July 13-19, 2015 sea surface temperature departure from the 1981-2010 average. In addition to the warmer than normal waters generated by the El Niño conditions, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is also creating persistently higher than normal sea surface temperatures in the northeastern Pacific.
​

El Niño conditions are on the rise in the Pacific Ocean, this could potentially become a record event that might even beat the great 1997 El Niño as seen in the image above. We aren’t there yet, but the Climate Prediction Center has an advisory out that suggests we might be soon.
California could see an end to their drought situation, with the jet stream pattern changing to bring more winter storms to the south part of the state (hello mudslides).

If a record ENSO event occurs it would virtually guarantee that 2015 will become the warmest year “ever”, which will set off all sorts of calls for controlling global warming, 2C limits etc, even though El Niño has nothing to do with CO2 posited warming, being a natural event of its own.

 

[OldBlackDog]

• <article id="comment-1991834" class="comment" style="border-bottom-style: none; padding: 3px 0px 3px 16px; margin: 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 1.1em; color: rgb(16, 16, 16);"><footer style="margin-bottom: 20px; background-image: none; background-attachment: scroll; background-color: rgb(247, 247, 247); padding: 6px; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat;">WFYI.</footer>Here is 15 July 1997 vs 15 July 2015 (source)
  
  
  </article>

 

[UkeeDreamin]

Blanket ban on salmon fishing in all Region 3 and Region 8 streams, while the Region 2 ban has a number of exemptions ... gotta love DFO consistency and competence!! The interior salmon rec fisheries in all of Regions 3 and 8 combined are a small fraction of all the potential openings in Region 2 yet some how they're able to make case by case assessments in in Region 2 but not the other two? I'm not opposed to the conservation measures given the extreme conditions this year but if the Chilliwack/Vedder is exempted despite flows being less than 25% compared to a year ago and temps in excess of 21C, how does DFO justify closing the lower Thompson jack fishery when flows are comparable to last year and temps in the 18-19C range?

Is it too much to ask that those managing our resource use and apply a consistent set of criteria?

Cheers!

Ukee

 

[GLG]

Question for you OBD, if the 1997 El Niño event gave us the 1998 horrible salmon summer what does that tell us for 2016?

Next question... if the 1997 El Niño event gave us the hottest global temperature record of 1998 (up to that point) what do you think will happen in 2016?

Next question..... How many hottest global temperature records in a row do you think the salmon can take before we get shut down for angling?

 

[OldBlackDog]

I have no ideal, however we are still here and still fishing for salmon 18 years later. So I guess there is hope.

Question for you OBD, if the 1997 El Niño event gave us the 1998 horrible salmon summer what does that tell us for 2016?

Next question... if the 1997 El Niño event gave us the hottest global temperature record of 1998 (up to that point) what do you think will happen in 2016?

Next question..... How many hottest global temperature records in a row do you think the salmon can take before we get shut down for angling?

 

[GLG]

It's not just the salmon that are going to be effected next year.

The bad news for Western drought: 'monster' hot El Nino on the way


Western farms are parched and wilting, and warm, dry El Nino conditions are still to come.

In the dead of a Prairie winter, when cars won't start and exposed skin freezes in 30 seconds, people pray for a searing hot summer. But across Western Canada this season, many may be recalling the old adage, "be careful what you wish for" as forest fires, drought and pestilence invite biblical comparisons.

• Lightning, heat and high winds spark more B.C. wildfires
• Metro Vancouver imposes strict water restrictions

More worrisome, though, than the sight of Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia wilting under 30 degree temperatures in June and July — and rationing scarce water supplies in some areas — is that this might just be the start of an even bigger problem.
Many meteorologists are chalking up today's weird and wacky weather in the West to the fact that this is an El Nino year, referring to the cyclical Pacific Ocean phenomenon that disrupts global weather patterns.
The problem with that, according to Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips: "It's not even arrived in Canada yet."
"We don't see the effects of El Nino until late fall, winter and early spring," he says.
What that likely means is at least three more consecutive seasons of warmer, drier weather when farmers are already, quite literally, tapped out in the moisture department.
As for what that could mean for drought conditions next summer and beyond, Phillips says it's "not looking good."
Feeling the heat

Canada's Prairies have just experienced their driest winter and spring in 68 years of record keeping. "So they were behind the eight-ball before the summer season ever came," says Phillips.
That, coupled with a record low snow pack in North America, and few of the traditional June rains needed to grow crops, has had a cumulative effect that's hit some producers harder than others.
Says Phillips: "For ranchers it's pretty much game over."
The tinder dry land has kept pastures for grazing cattle from turning green and producing feed, forcing cattle ranchers to sell down their herds or ship the animals around looking for alternative feed sources.
Meantime, B.C. has seen more than 1,300 wildfires since April, and the height of fire season doesn't usually begin until August. And, just this week, Metro Vancouver was forced to impose extraordinary stage-three water restrictions,something it hasn't done since 2003, one of the last big, bad summers on record.


Merely restricting water use, though, is little comfort on the parched Prairies, where scattered, late July rains have come too late to help many farmers and ranchers salvage the season.
"Our cereal fields, our oats, our wheat, our barley essentially baked in the field," says Garett Broadbent, agricultural services director for Alberta's Leduc County, just south of Edmonton.
The municipality voted unanimously this week to declare a local state of agricultural disaster as soil moisture and crop conditions continue to decline to the worst levels in half a century.
Plague of grasshoppers

Already, area farmers estimate they've lost about one-third of their entire crops to drought.
And if that wasn't bad enough, adds Broadbent, "Then we've had a band of grasshoppers that came through the west part of our municipality and depleted pretty much everything that was out there."
In Saskatchewan, it's a similar story.
"There's a lot of canola that's in very rough shape. " says Shannon Friesen, crop management specialist, with Saskatchewan Agriculture.


Friesen expects this year's harvest will also come early with average yields — if they're lucky.
But the losses that stem from a drought or other catastrophic events related to climate can have much more serious consequences than the financial impact, according to a long-time climate scientist.
"People often say, OK, so some guy's house flooded away or burned down. So what? They can pay to have it put back. But I say, you can't pay to put back the loss of a life or fix a mental disability from these things happening," says Gordon McBean, a climatologist and professor at the University of Western Ontario.

'Monster' El Nino

Adding to the concerns is that this year's El Nino is gearing up to be what some scientists are calling a "super" El Nino, or a "monster" one.
That's making a record-hot year seem almost inevitable, and a sobering new report about the Earth's temperature shows it's right on track to do just that.

• NOAA report shows hottest June, hottest six months on record

The latest monthly tally from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows the average global temperature in June reached 16.33 C., breaking the old record set last year by 0.12 degrees C.
That makes the first six months of 2015 the hottest on record, according to the U.S. scientific agency.
NOAA climate scientist Jessica Blunden says, in addition to the dwindling snow pack, "glaciers are melting, sea ice is melting, sea levels reached record highs last year, the ocean heat was record high last year, sea surface temperatures were record highs last year, so you put it all together and there's a definite trend."
It's a trend Blunden expects to continue into 2015 and beyond as long as, she says, greenhouse gas levels continue to rise year after year.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/the-b...ught-monster-hot-el-nino-on-the-way-1.3162146

 

[GLG]

[h=1]Stephen Hume: Angling for a more sensible sports fishery[/h]

[h=2]Drought threatens an industry that has become big business[/h]

BY STEPHEN HUME, VANCOUVER SUN COLUMNIST JULY 22, 2015
http://www.vancouversun.com/opinion...e+sensible+sports+fishery/11232137/story.html

Anyone who puts fish before personal ego welcomes the province’s decision to extend sports angling closures already in place elsewhere to the drought-stricken Lower Mainland.
The region that will feel the most impact from the closures falls within a geographical rectangle roughly bounded by the Peace Arch, Powell River, Pemberton and Ross Lake, south of Hope.
Angling is still permitted on the Capilano River downstream from the Trans-Canada Highway bridge and on non-tidal portions of Pitt River. Mamquam — a big tributary of the lower Squamish River — is exempt below the CN railway bridge. The non-tidal Squamish, Fraser, Elaho and Cheakamus and the Chilliwack-Vedder, Harrison and Lillooet Rivers are still open.
But anglers note: all tributaries of the few exempted streams are closed.
All streams in the Similkameen watershed including the Kettle and West Kettle Rivers, most of the south Okanagan and part of the Cariboo have been closed since last Wednesday. Southern Vancouver Island and the Gulf Islands were closed July 3.
If this drought marks a trend — the Stave and Chilliwack rivers have never been this low in recorded history, and the Fraser itself is rapidly approaching a record low — one can’t help but wonder if a major rethink of angling philosophy is overdue.
Right now we have unlimited entry, traditionally fish through the summer — nice for us, hard on fish — and every year we catch about 7.5 million rainbow, cutthroat, steelhead, Dolly Varden, bull and brook trout. In the Lower Mainland, the annual time spent angling equals about 750,000 days.
Perhaps this drought will prove a catalyst encouraging new thinking.
First Nations, angling associations, professional guides and conservationists have all been urging the province to impose closures to protect game stocks now — but what if this is the new summer normal?
Trout, steelhead and salmon in streams where flows are low and temperatures approach the lethal range are forced to seek refuge in a few deeper, colder pools. Such concentration makes them particularly vulnerable to anglers and other predators.
Game fish caught in warmer, oxygen-poor water frequently suffer from fatal stress levels, so catch a trout and it will most likely perish even if released.
Across the Lower Mainland and other regions, river flows are at previously unrecorded lows. Cayoosh Creek near Lillooet is at nine per cent of its usual summer flow. Coldwater River off the Coquihalla Highway is at 13 per cent. Tulameen River near Princeton is at 15 per cent, Similkameen River near Hedley is at 31 per cent of normal. In some regions, it’s worse. The Beatton River near Fort St. John, once an historic fur trade route, is a seven-per-cent trickle.
Why so reluctant to confront recreational angling under such adverse conditions? It’s likely because the freshwater angling sector is such a big contributor to the provincial economy. Nobody wants to mess with revenue engines when the national economy looks fragile.
In B.C. alone, total economic impact of freshwater sports angling is close to $1 billion a year. It generates about $150 million in wages and provides about 5,000 person years of employment. And it’s grown rapidly — the number of participants has grown about six per cent since 2005.
Those anglers spend about $13 million a year on fishing licences. Their activity generates about $144 million a year in federal and provincial tax revenues. The multiplier from freshwater angling is astonishing. The Freshwater Fisheries Society of B.C. estimates that for every dollar invested in sports fishing services, anglers spend on average $24.

Anglers spend more than $10 million a year in camp fees and more than $30 million on other accommodation including lodges. They spend $88 million a year on camping gear and fishing tackle, $93 million on boating equipment and $55 million on travel to and from preferred fishing locations.
Ninety-three per cent are B.C. residents. Between them, the Lower Mainland, Vancouver Island and the Thompson-Nicola region — three areas most severely impacted by this summer’s unprecedented drought — account for roughly half of B.C.’s freshwater angling activity.
So perhaps one can understand government’s hesitance to curb such a potent economic — and political — engine.
It had to be done, though. It should have been done sooner.
The piper’s tab is either paid now in terms of reduced opportunity or in the near future in the form of insufficient wild fish to sustain the angling that too many of us take for granted.

 

[OldBlackDog]

There is always hope!
The year was 1999 after the super El Niño .
[h=2]B.C. gets Wet and Windy & But Where's the Flooding?[/h]The combination of warm waters along the east coast of Asia and "chillier than usual" waters in the eastern North Pacific steered more wild storms northward into British Columbia. The result? The windiest, wettest and most drab winter in several decades in B.C.'s Lower Mainland.
Between November and March, winds of more than 60 km/h bashed Vancouver on 18 days (10 more than normal). Winter storms caused 118 ferry sailing cancellations on the most popular routes in and out of Vancouver, compared with only 20 the year before. The city also had more wet days than ever before - 116 compared to the old record of 108 days set 50 years ago. It also had the second highest winter precipitation total ever - 1,048 mm. While hard to accept for the residents of Victoria, their city recorded even more rain than Vancouver during the "wet coast" monsoon.
In B.C. mountain ranges, the snow pack broke records and was twice as deep as normal, raising fears of avalanches and flooding. Concerned authorities stockpiled up to 5 million sandbags and spent $5 million on flood proofing. The threat of wide-scale flooding was ultimately up to the spring weather, and luckily, cool

 

[GLG]

Thanks OBD.... sometimes it pays to read the rest of the story......
http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?lang=En&n=333B8E6A-1

 

[Wiseguy]

Hey GLG and OBD, do you guys fish at all?