Low snowpack could be ‘disastrous’ for salmon, scientist says
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jeffywestcoast
Well-Known Member
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2015/07/lose-car-if-you-toss-cigarette-bc/
Toss a cigarette out your window, lose your car: B.C. government
Toss a cigarette out your window, lose your car: B.C. government
https://www.biv.com/article/2015/7/blob-and-slime-stymie-bc-fish-returns/
Warming oceans, low river levels raise B.C. fish mortality fears
The Blob, the Slime and other global warming horror stories
Warming oceans, low river levels raise B.C. fish mortality fears
The Blob, the Slime and other global warming horror stories
OldBlackDog
Well-Known Member
It's all about money.
Thorkelson said it’s time the commercial sector had some kind of insurance, like the crop insurance that Prairie farmers have when crops are wiped out by hail or drought.
She added that DFO needs to consider management tools other than quota systems. The purse seine fleet moved to a quota system a few years ago, and the gillnet and seine fleets have been under increasing pressure to do the same.
A quota system avoids the shotgun approach to fishing under which commercial fishermen scoop up as much fish as they can during brief openings.
A quota system caps how much licence-holders can catch, so they can make their own decisions when to go fishing and stop when they reach their quota. It’s also better system for fish processors and packers because the fish supply gets smoothed out.
But independent fishermen hate the idea because unless quotas are tied to specific boats and boat owners, they say it will result in the privatization of a public resource, with all licences concentrated in the hands of just a few large companies, like Canadian Fishing Co. (Canfisco).
Thorkelson said it’s time the commercial sector had some kind of insurance, like the crop insurance that Prairie farmers have when crops are wiped out by hail or drought.
She added that DFO needs to consider management tools other than quota systems. The purse seine fleet moved to a quota system a few years ago, and the gillnet and seine fleets have been under increasing pressure to do the same.
A quota system avoids the shotgun approach to fishing under which commercial fishermen scoop up as much fish as they can during brief openings.
A quota system caps how much licence-holders can catch, so they can make their own decisions when to go fishing and stop when they reach their quota. It’s also better system for fish processors and packers because the fish supply gets smoothed out.
But independent fishermen hate the idea because unless quotas are tied to specific boats and boat owners, they say it will result in the privatization of a public resource, with all licences concentrated in the hands of just a few large companies, like Canadian Fishing Co. (Canfisco).
GLG
Well-Known Member
Well no OBD it's about the mess we have in the ocean (BLOB) and the drought we are experiencing here in the province. This all effect the salmon that we all care about. To make the argument that "It's all about the money" is no better then saying don't look there, look over here we have pandas.
OldBlackDog
Well-Known Member
The person talked to was the United Fishermen and Allied Workers Union spokeswoman Joy Thorkelson.
It was about the lack of fish available to them due to warm water caused by the blob.
That they think they are farmers and should have insurance, yet they do nothing close to what farmers do.
They are concerned about their pocket books, not the fish.
It was about the lack of fish available to them due to warm water caused by the blob.
That they think they are farmers and should have insurance, yet they do nothing close to what farmers do.
They are concerned about their pocket books, not the fish.
Marsman
Active Member
Hey Guy's... If you do your research we are at almost the same conditions on the Fraser River as we were in 2006. If 2006 the DFO shut down the river due to low warm water. Well in 2010 was the largest sockeye run in 50 years. Maybe the low and warm water get the fish to turn and spawn quicker. I will see if I can post the 2 news releases from 2006 to today.
Marsman
Marsman
Marsman
Active Member
Hey Guy's... If you do your research we are at almost the same conditions on the Fraser River as we were in 2006. In 2006 the DFO shut down the river due to low warm water. Well in 2010 was the largest sockeye run in 50 years. Maybe the low and warm water get the fish to turn and spawn quicker. I will see if I can post the 2 news releases from 2006 to today.
Marsman
Marsman
Marsman
Active Member
Low water levels and high temperatures.. Could be all misleading crap.
Hey Guy's... If you do your research we are at almost the same conditions on the Fraser River as we were in 2006. In 2006 the DFO shut down the river due to low warm water. Well in 2010 was the largest sockeye run in 50 years. Maybe the low and warm water get the fish to turn and spawn quicker. I will see if I can post the 2 news releases from 2006 to today.
Marsman
Hey Guy's... If you do your research we are at almost the same conditions on the Fraser River as we were in 2006. In 2006 the DFO shut down the river due to low warm water. Well in 2010 was the largest sockeye run in 50 years. Maybe the low and warm water get the fish to turn and spawn quicker. I will see if I can post the 2 news releases from 2006 to today.
Marsman
Marsman
Active Member
ok, Here is July 28th 2006.
Fraser River water temperatures (measured at Qualark Creek) have exceeded 20 oC over the past few days and record water temperatures for the dates occurred on July 24 and 25. The water temperature of the Fraser River on July 27 was 20.7 oC, which is over 3 oC, warmer than average for this date. Water temperatures are forecast to decline to slightly over 18 oC by August 3. It is likely that a portion of Fraser sockeye that encounter these high river temperatures will die before they reach their spawning grounds. Fraser River discharge at Hope is currently 3,200 cms (31% lower than normal for this date). The weather forecast is projecting cooler conditions in the Fraser watershed over the next several days. If cooler weather and river temperatures in the Fraser watershed occur in August, the migration conditions for the larger Fraser sockeye runs (which will be entering the river over the next month) would be enhanced relative to the current migration conditions. Environmental conditions will continue to be assessed and adjustments to escapements past Mission may be required to reaching spawning targets.
And then July 17th 2015.
On July 16, the Fraser River water discharge at Hope was 3,532 cms, which is approximately 34% lower than average for this date. The temperature of the Fraser River at Qualark Creek on July 16 was 20.0°C, which is 3.5°C higher than average for this date. These river discharge and temperature conditions are well beyond the normal range of data observed for this time of year. After reviewing environmental and stock assessment information, the Panel anticipates an increase in the management adjustment factor for Early Stuart sockeye when further information on run timing and river temperature is available. Management adjustments are additional fish that are removed from identified allowable harvest levels and instead allowed to escape upstream to help achieve spawning escapement targets for Fraser River sockeye.
Fraser River water temperatures (measured at Qualark Creek) have exceeded 20 oC over the past few days and record water temperatures for the dates occurred on July 24 and 25. The water temperature of the Fraser River on July 27 was 20.7 oC, which is over 3 oC, warmer than average for this date. Water temperatures are forecast to decline to slightly over 18 oC by August 3. It is likely that a portion of Fraser sockeye that encounter these high river temperatures will die before they reach their spawning grounds. Fraser River discharge at Hope is currently 3,200 cms (31% lower than normal for this date). The weather forecast is projecting cooler conditions in the Fraser watershed over the next several days. If cooler weather and river temperatures in the Fraser watershed occur in August, the migration conditions for the larger Fraser sockeye runs (which will be entering the river over the next month) would be enhanced relative to the current migration conditions. Environmental conditions will continue to be assessed and adjustments to escapements past Mission may be required to reaching spawning targets.
And then July 17th 2015.
On July 16, the Fraser River water discharge at Hope was 3,532 cms, which is approximately 34% lower than average for this date. The temperature of the Fraser River at Qualark Creek on July 16 was 20.0°C, which is 3.5°C higher than average for this date. These river discharge and temperature conditions are well beyond the normal range of data observed for this time of year. After reviewing environmental and stock assessment information, the Panel anticipates an increase in the management adjustment factor for Early Stuart sockeye when further information on run timing and river temperature is available. Management adjustments are additional fish that are removed from identified allowable harvest levels and instead allowed to escape upstream to help achieve spawning escapement targets for Fraser River sockeye.
Marsman
Active Member
Fraser River
ok, Here is July 28th 2006.
Fraser River water temperatures (measured at Qualark Creek) have exceeded 20 oC over the past few days and record water temperatures for the dates occurred on July 24 and 25. The water temperature of the Fraser River on July 27 was 20.7 oC, which is over 3 oC, warmer than average for this date. Water temperatures are forecast to decline to slightly over 18 oC by August 3. It is likely that a portion of Fraser sockeye that encounter these high river temperatures will die before they reach their spawning grounds. Fraser River discharge at Hope is currently 3,200 cms (31% lower than normal for this date). The weather forecast is projecting cooler conditions in the Fraser watershed over the next several days. If cooler weather and river temperatures in the Fraser watershed occur in August, the migration conditions for the larger Fraser sockeye runs (which will be entering the river over the next month) would be enhanced relative to the current migration conditions. Environmental conditions will continue to be assessed and adjustments to escapements past Mission may be required to reaching spawning targets.
And then July 17th 2015.
On July 16, the Fraser River water discharge at Hope was 3,532 cms, which is approximately 34% lower than average for this date. The temperature of the Fraser River at Qualark Creek on July 16 was 20.0°C, which is 3.5°C higher than average for this date. These river discharge and temperature conditions are well beyond the normal range of data observed for this time of year. After reviewing environmental and stock assessment information, the Panel anticipates an increase in the management adjustment factor for Early Stuart sockeye when further information on run timing and river temperature is available. Management adjustments are additional fish that are removed from identified allowable harvest levels and instead allowed to escape upstream to help achieve spawning escapement targets for Fraser River sockeye.
I see they can't even get a proper average....
ok, Here is July 28th 2006.
Fraser River water temperatures (measured at Qualark Creek) have exceeded 20 oC over the past few days and record water temperatures for the dates occurred on July 24 and 25. The water temperature of the Fraser River on July 27 was 20.7 oC, which is over 3 oC, warmer than average for this date. Water temperatures are forecast to decline to slightly over 18 oC by August 3. It is likely that a portion of Fraser sockeye that encounter these high river temperatures will die before they reach their spawning grounds. Fraser River discharge at Hope is currently 3,200 cms (31% lower than normal for this date). The weather forecast is projecting cooler conditions in the Fraser watershed over the next several days. If cooler weather and river temperatures in the Fraser watershed occur in August, the migration conditions for the larger Fraser sockeye runs (which will be entering the river over the next month) would be enhanced relative to the current migration conditions. Environmental conditions will continue to be assessed and adjustments to escapements past Mission may be required to reaching spawning targets.
And then July 17th 2015.
On July 16, the Fraser River water discharge at Hope was 3,532 cms, which is approximately 34% lower than average for this date. The temperature of the Fraser River at Qualark Creek on July 16 was 20.0°C, which is 3.5°C higher than average for this date. These river discharge and temperature conditions are well beyond the normal range of data observed for this time of year. After reviewing environmental and stock assessment information, the Panel anticipates an increase in the management adjustment factor for Early Stuart sockeye when further information on run timing and river temperature is available. Management adjustments are additional fish that are removed from identified allowable harvest levels and instead allowed to escape upstream to help achieve spawning escapement targets for Fraser River sockeye.
I see they can't even get a proper average....
GLG
Well-Known Member
You need to look at this too.
http://phys.org/news/2010-09-pacific-sockeye-salmon.html
Ocean conditions is where the evidence leads us to explain the 2010 run.
GLG
Well-Known Member
Here is a PDF that attempts to explain the ocean conditions that the 2010 run may have experienced.
http://www.drtimparsons.ca/Parsons_Whitney_FandO_Opinion_2012.pdf
Would be interesting to find out if any other research has been done to nail this down.
http://www.drtimparsons.ca/Parsons_Whitney_FandO_Opinion_2012.pdf
Would be interesting to find out if any other research has been done to nail this down.
Report Drought Impacts - WDFW
http://wdfw.wa.gov/conservation/drought/reporting/
http://wdfw.wa.gov/conservation/drought/reporting/
OldBlackDog
Well-Known Member
Fishery Notice - Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Subject: FN0717-Salmon - Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Update - Areas 11 to 29 - July 21, 2015
The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, July 21,2015 to receive an update on the
migration of the Fraser sockeye and pink runs to date and review the status of
migration conditions within the Fraser River watershed.
The migration of sockeye into the Fraser River continues to be very low to date
with the majority being Early Stuart and Early Summer run stocks with a few
Summer run stocks. Gillnet test fishing began on June 22nd in Area 29 (Fraser
River at Whonnock) and on June 29th at Qualark Creek. Marine area gillnet test
fisheries began on July 13th in Area 20 and Area 12. Catch to date in marine
test fisheries is consistent with this cycle line. Observations at Hells Gate
indicate that there has been a steady movement of low numbers of sockeye in
recent days.
DNA analysis of samples taken in the A12/A20 test fisheries show sockeye stock
compositions with declining abundance of Early Stuart (5%), combined with
increasing abundance of Early Summer (40 to 80%) and Summer run (5 to 35%)
stocks. During the panel call today the run size for Early Stuart was increased
from 16,000 to 30,000 (50% probability forecast) with a peak run timing of July
7th in Area 20. The estimated escapement of Early Stuart sockeye as of July
20th is 17,600 fish.
In-season assessment of all run timing groups generally occurs shortly after
identification of their peak migration through marine areas. Early Summer
stocks have begun to appear in marine and in-river test fishery samples. Run-
size estimates of Early Summer returns should be available in early to mid-
August after their expected peak migration through marine areas. The estimated
escapement of Early Summer-run sockeye past Mission through July 20th is 25,700
fish.
On July 20, the Fraser River water discharge at Hope was 3,255 cms, which is
approximately 35% below average for this date. The temperature of the Fraser
River at Qualark Creek on July 20th was 20.1 °C, which is 3.2°C above average
for this date. After reviewing environmental and stock assessment information,
the Panel decided to increase the Early Stuart management adjustment factor
from the long term median value of 0.68 to 4.18 which is the management
adjustment factor that was associated with the year (1998) that had the highest
recorded 19 day average temperature during the Early Stuart migration period.
Temperatures this year are slightly higher than they were in 1998 and river
discharge is similar for the time of year. Management adjustments are
additional fish that are removed from identified harvest levels and allowed to
escape upstream in an attempt to assist in achievement of identified escapement
objectives for the different run timing groups.
At this time it is too early to assess the return of Fraser pink salmon. Run
size and timing updates for Fraser pinks will likely begin in mid- to late
August.
Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial fisheries in marine waters
are not permitted to retain sockeye in areas where Fraser sockeye are normally
harvested. The Early Stuart and Early Summer Run sockeye window closure
originally scheduled to be lifted July 22nd will be continued until further
notice and a further assessment will be provided later in the week (VO # 2015-
284 is in effect).
Within the waters of the Fraser River, First Nations food, social and
ceremonial fisheries have been very limited and directed at chinook. The
initiation of sockeye directed First Nations food, social and ceremonial
fisheries is not anticipated before late July or early August depending upon
location.
Fishers are requested to check for the opening times and any restrictions in
their local area. There are no planned commercial or recreational fisheries on sockeye at this time.Look,they did it.
Subject: FN0717-Salmon - Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Update - Areas 11 to 29 - July 21, 2015
The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, July 21,2015 to receive an update on the
migration of the Fraser sockeye and pink runs to date and review the status of
migration conditions within the Fraser River watershed.
The migration of sockeye into the Fraser River continues to be very low to date
with the majority being Early Stuart and Early Summer run stocks with a few
Summer run stocks. Gillnet test fishing began on June 22nd in Area 29 (Fraser
River at Whonnock) and on June 29th at Qualark Creek. Marine area gillnet test
fisheries began on July 13th in Area 20 and Area 12. Catch to date in marine
test fisheries is consistent with this cycle line. Observations at Hells Gate
indicate that there has been a steady movement of low numbers of sockeye in
recent days.
DNA analysis of samples taken in the A12/A20 test fisheries show sockeye stock
compositions with declining abundance of Early Stuart (5%), combined with
increasing abundance of Early Summer (40 to 80%) and Summer run (5 to 35%)
stocks. During the panel call today the run size for Early Stuart was increased
from 16,000 to 30,000 (50% probability forecast) with a peak run timing of July
7th in Area 20. The estimated escapement of Early Stuart sockeye as of July
20th is 17,600 fish.
In-season assessment of all run timing groups generally occurs shortly after
identification of their peak migration through marine areas. Early Summer
stocks have begun to appear in marine and in-river test fishery samples. Run-
size estimates of Early Summer returns should be available in early to mid-
August after their expected peak migration through marine areas. The estimated
escapement of Early Summer-run sockeye past Mission through July 20th is 25,700
fish.
On July 20, the Fraser River water discharge at Hope was 3,255 cms, which is
approximately 35% below average for this date. The temperature of the Fraser
River at Qualark Creek on July 20th was 20.1 °C, which is 3.2°C above average
for this date. After reviewing environmental and stock assessment information,
the Panel decided to increase the Early Stuart management adjustment factor
from the long term median value of 0.68 to 4.18 which is the management
adjustment factor that was associated with the year (1998) that had the highest
recorded 19 day average temperature during the Early Stuart migration period.
Temperatures this year are slightly higher than they were in 1998 and river
discharge is similar for the time of year. Management adjustments are
additional fish that are removed from identified harvest levels and allowed to
escape upstream in an attempt to assist in achievement of identified escapement
objectives for the different run timing groups.
At this time it is too early to assess the return of Fraser pink salmon. Run
size and timing updates for Fraser pinks will likely begin in mid- to late
August.
Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial fisheries in marine waters
are not permitted to retain sockeye in areas where Fraser sockeye are normally
harvested. The Early Stuart and Early Summer Run sockeye window closure
originally scheduled to be lifted July 22nd will be continued until further
notice and a further assessment will be provided later in the week (VO # 2015-
284 is in effect).
Within the waters of the Fraser River, First Nations food, social and
ceremonial fisheries have been very limited and directed at chinook. The
initiation of sockeye directed First Nations food, social and ceremonial
fisheries is not anticipated before late July or early August depending upon
location.
Fishers are requested to check for the opening times and any restrictions in
their local area. There are no planned commercial or recreational fisheries on sockeye at this time.Look,they did it.
GLG
Well-Known Member
This could have something to do with the river temps.
And to think, no El Niño yet... that comes next year.
http://climatecrocks.com/2015/07/20/2015-on-track-to-crush-previous-temp-records/
Here is the Northern Hemisphere plot of historical temperatures for January through June showing the huge jump this year:
And to think, no El Niño yet... that comes next year.
http://climatecrocks.com/2015/07/20/2015-on-track-to-crush-previous-temp-records/
Here is the Northern Hemisphere plot of historical temperatures for January through June showing the huge jump this year:
We have never seen these conditions before with a warm ocean and warm inland rivers at the same time. It's the perfect storm in the wrong direction. To add to that, we have very low snowpacks in many areas of the province. Snowpack levels are critical in the Southwest part of the province including Vancouver Island. Nechako and Stuart are not too bad compared to other areas of the province for snowpack. The thing is that those snowpacks are important for adding cooler water to the rivers at this time of the year because as you can see from the past (i.e. 2003, 2004, 2006 and even 2013) the rivers can get warm. It is not even August yet. Even September can be warm. In June, we usually get some rains just before the summer heat that help things out, but not this year. If those snowpacks are not there then if can make for some bad conditions in the terminal areas for Pacific Salmon. These water temperature not only can impact the energetics of migrating salmon, but if they become stressed it can make them more susceptible to pathogens. Salmon in these conditions will hold in pools to avoid warm temperatures and get some refuge, but the longer they are in freshwater the more prone they are to freshwater pathogens (accumulating thermal units is not good). Creek mouths can also become inaccessible if the water gets too low. Many places in the province are in Stage 3 or 4 drought conditions now. Wasn't like that in 2006 I don't believe.
Fecundity and the health of the eggs can also be impacted, so even if they make it to the terminal areas that doesn't mean that they will successfully spawn. If creeks dewater, eggs can become expose to the air, dry up and die. The saving grace hopefully will be the closure of fisheries on the Fraser (other than selective methods like dip netting by First Nations for their food fishery). I believe this is what really benefited them in 2013 and in previous years. If migrating salmon do not have to contend with a gauntlet of nets in the river or yards of monofilament dragged through the water with the ever enticing pink wool on the end then it will hopefully go a long way to making sure they conserve more energy for actual migration and spawning. I believe the Fraser Panel is doing the best they can right now. Closure of fisheries is the only real clout they have in their arsenal and it appears it will be used. Those that can clearly demonstrate low impact, selective fisheries will likely get whatever opportunity is available.
2010 was different because the ocean in 2008 and 2009 had good growing conditions for juvenile salmon. Ocean water was cooler and there was upwelling/mixing. Now it's warm and stratified with good zooplankton being replaced by zooplankton which is less nutritious.
Last edited by a moderator:
OldBlackDog
Well-Known Member
Please get your facts right.
El Niño Conditions
El Niño conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and are expected to persist through at least the end of the calendar year. All 4 Niño indexing regions have had warm weekly sea-surface temperature (SST) departures from normal exceeding 1 degree Celsius, with the anomalies in the far eastern equatorial Pacific exceeding 2 degrees Celsius. Average over the last month, SSTs are warmer than normal across the entire Pacific as well. The "El Niño Advisory" that was released on March 5 is still in effect. Model predictions are now showing very high chances that the El Niño will persist through the calendar year and into next winter. Chances that the El Niño will persist through spring and summer exceed 90% with chances exceeding 80% that it will last through the winter of 2015-16.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The CPC three-class July-August-September (JAS) temperature outlook has increased chances of above normal temperatures for the entire state, with chances of warmer than normal temperatures highest in the western half of the state. For JAS precipitation, there are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normalprecipitation for the entire state.
The outlook for August-September-October (ASO) is also calling for increased chances of above normal temperatures statewide. As we approach fall, the precipitation outlook is calling for drier than normal conditions for nearly the entire state. An area in eastern WA (including Pullman, Walla Walla, and Spokane) has equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation for ASO.
Last Updated: 6/18/2015
Let's not forget the Blob as well, but you do know when that started, right?
Guess that might have an effect on this years weather.
So show us a map of the historical weather of B.C. As that is what this discussion is about.
QUOTE=GLG;418208]This could have something to do with the river temps.
And to think, no El Niño yet... that comes next year.
http://climatecrocks.com/2015/07/20/2015-on-track-to-crush-previous-temp-records/
Here is the Northern Hemisphere plot of historical temperatures for January through June showing the huge jump this year:
[/QUOTE]
El Niño Conditions
El Niño conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and are expected to persist through at least the end of the calendar year. All 4 Niño indexing regions have had warm weekly sea-surface temperature (SST) departures from normal exceeding 1 degree Celsius, with the anomalies in the far eastern equatorial Pacific exceeding 2 degrees Celsius. Average over the last month, SSTs are warmer than normal across the entire Pacific as well. The "El Niño Advisory" that was released on March 5 is still in effect. Model predictions are now showing very high chances that the El Niño will persist through the calendar year and into next winter. Chances that the El Niño will persist through spring and summer exceed 90% with chances exceeding 80% that it will last through the winter of 2015-16.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The CPC three-class July-August-September (JAS) temperature outlook has increased chances of above normal temperatures for the entire state, with chances of warmer than normal temperatures highest in the western half of the state. For JAS precipitation, there are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normalprecipitation for the entire state.
The outlook for August-September-October (ASO) is also calling for increased chances of above normal temperatures statewide. As we approach fall, the precipitation outlook is calling for drier than normal conditions for nearly the entire state. An area in eastern WA (including Pullman, Walla Walla, and Spokane) has equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation for ASO.
Last Updated: 6/18/2015
Let's not forget the Blob as well, but you do know when that started, right?
Guess that might have an effect on this years weather.
So show us a map of the historical weather of B.C. As that is what this discussion is about.
QUOTE=GLG;418208]This could have something to do with the river temps.
And to think, no El Niño yet... that comes next year.
http://climatecrocks.com/2015/07/20/2015-on-track-to-crush-previous-temp-records/
Here is the Northern Hemisphere plot of historical temperatures for January through June showing the huge jump this year:
[/QUOTE]
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