Category(s):
ABORIGINAL - General Information,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Gill Net,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Seine,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Troll,
RECREATIONAL - Salmon
Fishery Notice - Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Subject: FN0601-Salmon - Fraser River Sockeye Update - Areas 11 to 29 - July 8, 2014
The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, July 8, 2014 to receive an update on the
migration of the Fraser sockeye runs and review the status of migration
conditions in the Fraser River watershed.
The majority of sockeye returning in 2014 will be recruits from adult spawners
in 2010, which was one of the largest returns on record. The large forecast
return in 2014 is primarily based on the large number of effective female
sockeye spawners in 2010 which was the largest on this cycle line. However,
forecasts for 2014 are highly uncertain due to variability in annual survival
rates, uncertainty about changes in sockeye productivity and the very large
escapements recorded in many nursery systems in 2010. To put the sockeye run
size forecast uncertainty into context, there is a one in four chance that the
actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below 12,897,000 fish (the 25%
probability level forecast) and there is a three in four chance that the actual
number of returning sockeye will be at or below 41,400,000 fish (the 75%
probability level forecast). For pre-season planning purposes, the Panel used
the 50% probability level forecast (equal chance of a higher or lower return)
of 23,010,000 fish. Fishing decisions will be based on in-season data.
For 2014 pre-season planning purposes the median timing information for the
different run timing groups was used. Updated timing forecasts are not
available at this time. The median dates are July 4th for Early Stuart and
August 4th, 2014 for Chilko. The pre-season forecast of the proportion of
Fraser River sockeye salmon diverting their migration to the Fraser River
through Johnstone Strait is 66%.
The snow pack volume in the Fraser River watershed was near average this year,
however a warmer than normal spring resulted in early snowmelt in a number of
Fraser tributaries resulting in below average snowpack for this time of year
throughout much of the Fraser drainage area. Early runoff may result in higher
than average water temperatures during summer months as river levels are
expected to be below average.
Gill net test fishing began on June 21st in Area 20 (Juan de Fuca Strait) and
on July 23rd, 2014 Area 29 (Fraser River at Whonnock). Recent stock
identification data indicate that Early Stuart sockeye are the predominant
Fraser stock in samples collected from both marine and lower Fraser River test
fisheries. The estimated upriver migration of sockeye past Mission through
July 7th, 2014 is approximately 32,700 fish of which 29,800 are estimated to be
Early Stuart sockeye with the remainder Early Summer stocks.
There were no changes to run sizes or Management Adjustments at the July 8th,
2014 meeting. There are indications that the Early Stuart return is either
much later than the median timing or the run size is well below the p50
forecast of 299,000, or a combination of the two. Updates to Early Stuart run
size are expected on Friday, July 11, 2014 and an update to Early Summer run
size is expected in late July or early August, after the peak of their marine
migration has been observed.
Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial fisheries have been
limited and directed at chinook with non-retention of sockeye. Early Stuarts
are currently tracking well below the p50 level of 299,000, which has resulted
in the initiation of the 3 week window closure with non-retention measures in
marine and in-river FSC fisheries that are targeting other species. Limited FSC
fisheries directed on Early Stuart sockeye may be considered if there is a
significant increase in abundance in the coming weeks. Fishers are requested to
check for the opening times and any restrictions in their local area. There are
no planned commercial or recreational fisheries at this time.
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Jennifer Nener 604-666-6478
Fisheries and Oceans Canada Operations Center - FN0601
Sent July 9, 2014 at 10:29
Visit us on the Web at
http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca
If you have any questions or would like to unsubscribe, please contact us via e-mail to:
OpsCentre@pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca