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Fishery Notice - Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Subject: FN0697-Salmon - Fraser River Sockeye Update - Areas 11 to 29 - July 16, 2021
The Fraser River Panel met Friday, July 16, to receive an update on the migration of the Fraser Sockeye and Pink runs to date and review the status of migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.
Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided forecasts of the 2021 Fraser River Sockeye and Pink salmon abundance, timing and diversion rate to the Fraser Panel for pre-season planning purposes. The majority of Sockeye returning in 2021 will be recruits from adult spawners in 2016 (age 5) and 2017 (age 4) both of which had below average spawners for the respective cycle line. DFO has advised that Fraser River Sockeye salmon forecasts for 2021 continue to be highly uncertain due to variability in annual survival rates and uncertainty about changes in their productivity as a result of changing ocean conditions from 2013 to 2019 that included the warm blob and an El Nino event. The 2021 Pink salmon return will be the recruits from the adult spawners in 2019 which was a below average return year for Fraser Pink salmon and is also considered to be highly uncertain as new forecast methodology was required given the cancellation of the smolt program in 2020 due to COVID 19 concerns.
For pre-season planning purposes, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal chance of a higher or lower return) of 1,330,000 fish for all Sockeye management groups. This return is well below the cycle average. The largest contributing stocks for the 2021 return are expected to be the Chilko, Quesnel and Late Stuart Sockeye; all Summer run stocks that spawn above the Big Bar landslide. For Pink salmon, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal chance of a higher or lower return) of 3,009,000 Pink salmon. This is well below the long term average of 11.5 million.
The Early Stuart and Chilko timing of July 5 and August 6 respectively, were adopted by the Fraser Panel at the June meeting. Timing for all other Sockeye stocks was offset 4 days earlier based on Chilko timing. The pre-season forecast of the proportion of Fraser River Sockeye and Pink salmon diverting their migration through Johnstone Strait are 35% and 50% respectively, which the Panel also adopted for planning purposes.
For pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel has adopted management adjustments for Early Stuart based on the historical median for all years, Early Summer based on the historical weighted all years median excluding Pitt and Chilliwack, and Summer run sockeye based on the historical median for all years. The Late run management adjustment is based on the weighted odd year median excluding Birkenhead.
Model predicted management adjustments based on the water discharge and temperature predictions were not adopted largely due to the high degree of uncertainty in the forecasts. Management adjustments are additional fish that are removed from identified harvest levels and allowed to escape upstream in an attempt to assist in achievement of identified escapement objectives for the different run timing groups. Returns at the p50 forecast level for all management groups in 2021 are below levels that generate allowable harvest and as such will be managed based on the respective Low Abundance Exploitation Rate (LAER) of 10% which will not require modifications to the management adjustments. If in-season run sizes increase to p75 levels or higher, modifications to the management adjustments may occur as required.
The observed water temperature at Hope on July 15 was 19°Celsius which is 2.2°Celsius above average for this date. Water temperatures are forecast to decrease to 18.6°Celsius by July 21. The Fraser River discharge at Hope on July 15 was 4,796 cubic meters per second which is 11% below the average discharge for this date. Discharge levels are forecast to drop to 4,153 cubic meters per second by July 21.
With water discharge levels dropping, Chinook and Sockeye salmon have been observed migrating above the landslide at Big Bar in the Fraser River upstream of Lillooet. Significant work has occurred over the winter and spring months to further improve passage for fish, combined with robust assessment programs to evaluate passage success, as well as mitigation measures such as fish transport and brood stock collection for enhancement purposes. Additional information can be found at the following link.
http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/pacific-smon-pacifique/big-bar-landslide-eboulement/index-eng.html
The marine gill net test fisheries at Round Island and Area 20 began on July 9 and 11, respectively. To date, catches at Round Island have been low, while catches in Area 20 started strong but have dropped in recent days. Gill net test fishing began in the Fraser River on June 28 at Whonnock, July 2 at the Qualark Creek, July 12 at Cottonwood and on July 14 at Brownsville Bar. The new test fishery location at Brownsville Bar is being evaluated as a replacement for Cottonwood which has been ineffective in recent years. Gill net catches in the river test fisheries have been low in recent days with the exception of Brownsville Bar and Qualark test fisheries.
DNA samples from the Area 20 gill net test fishery on July 11 and 12 indicated that 75% are Early Stuart Sockeye, 18% are Early Summer run stocks and 7% are Summer run stocks. DNA sample sizes from the Round Island test fishery were small and had a very low composition of Fraser stocks. Recent DNA samples from Whonnock and Cottonwood collected on July 12 and 13 indicated that between 92% and 93% are Early Stuart Sockeye and between 7% and 8% are Early Summer run stocks. The current diversion rate through Johnstone Strait is estimated to be 2% based on the Area 20 and Round Island test fishery catches during the last 5 days.
The total Sockeye escapement to Mission on July 15 is estimated to be 44,800 of which 42,100 are Early Stuart Sockeye and 2,700 are Early Summer run stocks. Early Stuart Sockeye appear to be tracking close to the p90 pre-season forecast level of 47,000, but still well below the escapement target of 108,000 Sockeye. In-season assessment of run size and timing of Early Stuart Sockeye will likely be provided next week once more information becomes available. In-season assessment of all run timing groups generally occurs shortly after identification of their peak migration through marine areas.
Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) sockeye fisheries are closed due a 4 week window closure to protect Early Stuart and the earlier-timed Early Summer run stocks. Very limited fishing opportunities directed at Chinook salmon for ceremonial purposes have occurred to date with non-retention restrictions in place for Sockeye. The start-up of Sockeye directed FSC fisheries is not anticipated in 2021 unless run sizes increase to the p75 level or higher. FSC fishers in marine approach areas as well as the Fraser River are requested to check for the opening times and any restrictions in their local area. Commercial and recreational fisheries are not anticipated on Fraser River Sockeye in 2021.
The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on Tuesday, July 20, 2021.
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Regional Salmon Team – DFO Pacific
DFO.PacificSalmonRMT-EGRSaumonduPacifique.MPO@dfo-mpo.gc.ca
Fisheries and Oceans Canada Operations Center - FN0697
Sent July 16, 2021 at 14:00
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