Something like this that was proposed in 2008?
http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fm-gp/fraser/docs/abor-autoc/2008FrasRvrChkInformDocument.htm
View attachment 41928
10 years latter what progress have we made addressing these concerns??? What will we do differently for the next 10?? A bright spot is that coho in the SOG seem to actually be recovering this year.
Many Pacific salmon stocks in southern British Columbia experienced extremely poor production for brood years that entered the ocean in 2005. The widespread pattern of poor production levels amongst Pacific salmon species and stocks is rare and perhaps unprecedented among DFO observations. Pink salmon entering the sea in 2005 returned to spawn in 2006. Their observed returns in 2006 were far below expectations with the pattern of poor returns extended from southern BC through Southeast Alaska.
Coho salmon had very low returns compared to expectations in 2006. Coho have a predominantly 3-year life cycle, and smolts that went to the ocean in 2005 (brood year 2003) returned in 2006. The 2006 spawning escapement to the Interior Fraser was the lowest recorded since 1975. The pattern of extremely low marine survival and spawning escapements extended to other southern B.C. stocks, with the Strait of Georgia hatchery and wild stocks experiencing record low marine survival (since 1985).
Sockeye salmon return mainly at ages 3 to 5 in southern BC with most at age-4. Smolts from brood year 2003 entered the ocean in 2005. Fraser sockeye returns in 2007 were extremely low compared to pre-season expectations, with the estimated survival rate for ChilkoLake sockeye being the lowest recorded in over 50 years (1.2% compared with long term average of 8.7%). In Barkley Sound, age-3 jack returns in 2006 were 10% of the long term average, indicating poor marine survival. In-season run size estimates were two-thirds of expectations and the 2007 spawning escapement was the lowest among all years since 1992.
Chinook returns associated with the poor 2005 ocean entry year are expected to be compounded by apparent poor survival for the 2003 and 2004 brood years for many stocks. In the FraserRiver, Age-4 returns from the 2004 brood year and age-5 returns from the 2003 brood year will account for most of the female spawners in 2008. The poor returns in 2007 and the over-whelming evidence of a 2005 at-sea impact suggests that returns in 2008 will be poor, particularly for interior Fraser River Spring and Summer stream-type Chinook.
Stream-type Chinook spend at least one year in freshwater before migrating to the sea and return to spawn between ages 3 and 6. In the Fraser River, detailed age-structure data are collected at the Nicola River (hatchery and wild) and Nechako River, and spawning returns are monitored for three groups (spring run age 42, spring run age 52 and summer run age 52 stocks). The groups differ in maturation schedules, about 90% of the spring run age 42 group spawn at age-4, and about 70-80% of the spring and summer run age 52 groups spawn at age-5. Spawning escapements observed in 2007 were poor for each of these groups, returning only 11% (spring run age 42), 25% (spring run age 52), and 29% (summer run age 52) respectively of their parental brood year levels. Age structure information sampled from the 2007 returns will not be available until early 2008.
The 2008 Outlook for early timed Fraser Chinook stock components suggests returns in 2008 will continue to be poor due to very poor brood year escapements and over-whelming evidence of 2005 at-sea impact. Abundance of Fraser Chinook returning in the spring is estimated to be at 20 year lows and exploitation rates may have increased in a number of recent years
[6]. The earliest timed Chinook populations are the first to return in the spring period and have peak migration into the Fraser in the March to May period. Earliest timed Chinook populations include: Coldwater River, LouisCreek, Spius Creek, CottonwoodRiver, ChilakoRiver, UpperChilcotinRiver and BirkenheadRiver. Poor returns are expected to continue recent spawner declines observed in these populations, with the notable exception of Birkenhead. Birkenhead has had good spawning escapements possibly related to very early migration timing and far north marine distribution. However, in the other earliest timed Chinook populations brood year escapements are at a small fraction of the estimated habitat capacity (e.g. <10%) that would maximize the harvestable surplus (see Appendix B: 1993-2007 Chinook escapement estimates to tributaries in the BC Interior and Lower Fraser).
