Now That We Know TAC, What Should 2014 Limits Be?

[SerengetiGuide]

I'll lay this out by month too so guys can see it clearer. These are the exact amounts we caught by month according to 2012 and 2013 DFO data. This is definitely something I could live with and according to the numbers 70lbs would even work.

These are pounds taken with 1/2 with one 83cm shoulder, 1/2 with 126max and 83cm max July/Aug or 133cm max July/Aug

March.....13,109lbs
April.......23,355lbs
May........34,458lbs
June.......194,300lbs
July........284,171lbs (1/2 with 126cm max) ..................314,171lbs (1/2 with 133cm max)
August....281,499lbs (1/2 with 126cm max)...................311,499lbs (1/2 with 133cm max)
Sept........53,701lbs
Oct-Dec....2,559lbs

Total...887,152lbs................................................947,152lbs

+ 5% biorisk..44,357lbs...............................................47,357lbs

Total w/...931,509lbs..........................................994,509lbs
Safety Net

The key here is this is WHAT we actually caught in 2012 and 2013 using these two methods. This really does reduce risk drastically due to this fact. No one can say well lodges and guides will take big ones and screw us either as they could in 2012 as well. This is pretty solid to be honest. Could get full season with the 70lb even as it would have approx 50,000-70,000lbs of cushion depending on exact amount we get. That's a nice cushion of safety.

Let's hope SFAB does consider this, some of you are on the board and curious of your thoughts.

 

[Jencourt]

Thanks for showing the detail. Seeing it with the numbers i like it even more.

 

[UkeeDreamin]

Hi Serengeti, or anyone else, can you explain how in 2010, without the 83cm possession fish slot limit, harvest rates were identical to 2011 and 2012, when this slot applied? Better yet, does anyone have data that shows what percentage of fish harvested, coast-wide and season long, that ridiculous slot applied to? How do the survey numbers in that regard compare to DFO's model's assumption - i.e. what does the survey data from the last 3-years of these "experimental" regs tell us about % of harvest the possession slot applied to versus what % the DFO model assumes? Can anyone point me to a fisheries management model, used anywhere in the world at anytime, that has a slot size larger than the statistical average fish harvested and/or larger than 70+% of fish harvested (as our historic rec halibut fishery data clearly shows) yet still predicts that such a slot will reduce the predicted harvest biomass by a statistically significant, and thus defensible, amount?

Until those issues are answered by DFO and/or those with the prestigious seats at the table to influence the regs, we're all being sold a bogus regulation that does nothing to reduce harvest in the real world yet restricts a large portion of our sector from accessing what the majority commenting on here see as a couple reasonable sized halibut.

Ukee

 

[searun]

133 cm with 83 cm first fish leaves 15,704 pounds under TAC. So your idea of raising second fish size works leaving a little room to even increase first fish to 90 cm. That would have small risk of going over. Regardless, it will be a tough choice.

 

[searun]

U dreaming. Literally. The model is based on samples taken and there isn't the budget to increase that. The best thing we could do is fill out out log books to help get even better data. I don't envy the tough job DFO has herding all us cats. At least DFO attempts to manage which is better than the province and their Ministry of do nothing.

 

[SerengetiGuide]

Also take what DFO's model says with grain of salt as they say we need 1,004,160lbs for full season if we kept 60lb limit...yeah, okkkkkk....pretty sure we saw that was far from truth last year. The numbers in the above post for the combo of 70lb limit during july and august and 2012 regs for shoulders are what we ACTUALLY used...plus 5% bio risk.

 

[UkeeDreamin]

Searun, is that an answer as I don't think it addresses a single question asked? I'm quite aware that surveys are conducted with some limited catch measurements, as opposed to samples taken, as the main source of rec fishery data and that there are no resources to expand this. However, these regs were sold to all as an "experiment" so presumably data was collected in the surveys (i.e. a couple of supplementary Q's on the creelers survey sheet, at no extra cost to anyone) since the regs were brought in to guesstimate what % of harvested fish the possession slot influenced in a downward manner. This data should be available as should the assumption in the model that was originally and/or currently used (I'm not naive enough to think they've updated the model with the data collected as it's still making illogical and, quite frankly, impossible predictions). My understanding, which no one can, or will, confirm or deny is that model is still looking at a 1/2 daily/possession limit and using that as a basis to assume every 2nd fish harvested is a possession slot fish, which all of us know is off by at least one order of magnitude. Until I see something official, I refuse to believe anyone can be that stupid … though the predictions made by the model wrt the effect of an 83cm possession slot strongly suggest I'm mistaken about people's capacity for stupidity. In any case, if you can provide any insight whatsoever, it would be greatly appreciated.

Serengeti, no matter how much salt you apply it won't make DFO's model palatable … how much more proof do folks need when it makes ridiculous predictions like the current 60lb max resulting in going over TAC when we left 1/4 of it in the water last year?!!!! That degree of inaccuracy is indefensible, even for a model based on a poor data source like what this one must rely on.

Ukee (still "Dreamin")

 

[SerengetiGuide]

Sad thing is Ukee is people making the decisions seem to believe this model regardless of what last years catch was... :O I hope they don't though....for most max slot predictions I think its fair to say to take at least 100k off of the prediction...aka more left over at end of year, leading to harder to convince dfo for more %.

 

[GLG]

I like you idea fellas.... here is another one that combines option A (last years rules) with the Option F (shoulder). These number are taken from table 2 of the PDF

Measure	Open	Daily	Possession	Annual	1st Fish Size	2nd Fish size
a. 2013 Management	July 1 - Aug 31	1	2	6	126 cm/60lb	83 cm/15lb
f	Feb 1 - Dec 31 Shoulders	1	2	6	none	83 cm/15lb

<tbody>
</tbody>

Month	Option a	Option F
	last year	shoulder
Feb	2,247	2,247
Mar	29,905	29,905
Apr	22,975	24,435
May	30,379	28,958
Jun	218,286	236,883
Jul	284,171	282,535
Aug	281,499	274,378
Sep	36,930	36,619
Oct Nov Dec	6,481	7,263
Feb		2,247
Mar		29,905
Apr		24,435
May		28,958
Jun		236,883
Jul	284,171
Aug	281,499
Sep		36,619
Oct Nov Dec		7,263
	Harvest	931,980
	Bio-risk -10%	93,198
	Total	1,025,178
	2014 Tac	1,057,950
	over/under	32,772

<tbody>
</tbody>

That's 32,772 pounds under TAC

 

[SerengetiGuide]

Shows it works like a charm even with dfo's numbers. Plus it is using 10% bio risk which is quite high....this could work guys. Could make everyone happy, with a long season...don't get me wrong, I'm excited to get back to 1/2 no size or 2/3 no size, but for now, this is doable.

 

[GLG]

Month	Option A.1	Option F
		shoulder
Feb	2,247	2,247
Mar	29,905	29,905
Apr	23,197	24,435
May	30,622	28,958
Jun	220,428	236,883
Jul	291,876	282,535
Aug	290,516	274,378
Sep	37,543	36,619
Oct Nov Dec	6,547	7,263
Feb		2,247
Mar		29,905
Apr		24,435
May		28,958
Jun		236,883
Jul	291,876
Aug	290,516
Sep		36,619
Oct Nov Dec		7,263
	Harvest	948,702
	Bio-risk -10%	94,870
	Total	1,043,572
	2014 Tac	1,057,950
	over/under	14,378

<tbody>
</tbody>

Under TAC by 14,378

Measure	Open	Daily	Possession	Annual	1st Fish Size	2nd Fish size
a.1	July 1 - Aug 31	1	2	6	126 cm/60lb	90 cm/20lb
f	Feb 1 - Dec 31 Shoulders	1	2	6	none	83 cm/15lb

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[GLG]

Month	Option A.2	Option F
		shoulder
Feb	2,247	2,247
Mar	29,905	29,905
Apr	23,666	24,435
May	31,012	28,958
Jun	222,772	236,883
Jul	302,065	282,535
Aug	302,211	274,378
Sep	37,911	36,619
Oct Nov Dec	6,629	7,263
Feb		2,247
Mar		29,905
Apr		24,435
May		28,958
Jun		236,883
Jul	302,065
Aug	302,211
Sep		36,619
Oct Nov Dec		7,263
	Harvest	970,586
	Bio-risk -10%	97,059
	Total	1,067,645
	2014 Tac	1,057,950
	over/under	(9,695)

<tbody>
</tbody>

Over the TAC by 9,695 lbs - not bad.... and well within margin of error and it's only 1% off the bio-risk

Measure	Open	Daily	Possession	Annual	1st Fish Size	2nd Fish size
a.2	July1 -Aug 31	1	2	6	126 cm/60lb	102 cm/30lb
f	Feb 1 - Dec 31 Shoulders	1	2	6	none	83 cm/15lb

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[GLG]

Month	Option A.3	Option F
		shoulder
Feb	2,247	2,247
Mar	29,905	29,905
Apr	24,133	24,435
May	31,460	28,958
Jun	225,062	236,883
Jul	311,075	282,535
Aug	310,132	274,378
Sep	38,377	36,619
Oct Nov Dec	6,726	7,263
Feb		2,247
Mar		29,905
Apr		24,435
May		28,958
Jun		236,883
Jul	311,075
Aug	310,132
Sep		36,619
Oct Nov Dec		7,263
	Harvest	987,517
	Bio-risk -10%	98,752
	Total	1,086,269
	2014 Tac	1,057,950
	over/under	(28,319)

<tbody>
</tbody>

Over our TAC by 28,319.... Dang... but we do have that Bio-Risk....

Measure	Open	Daily	Possession	Annual	1st Fish Size	2nd Fish size
a.3	July 1 - Aug 31	1	2	6	126 cm/50lb	112 cm/40lb
f	Feb 1 - Dec 31 Shoulder	1	2	6	none	83 cm/15lb

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[GLG]

Month	Option B.1	Option F
		shoulder
Feb	2,247	2,247
Mar	29,905	29,905
Apr	20,194	24,435
May	25,175	28,958
Jun	199,026	236,883
Jul	279,214	282,535
Aug	280,395	274,378
Sep	33,406	36,619
Oct Nov Dec	5,837	7,263
Feb		2,247
Mar		29,905
Apr		24,435
May		28,958
Jun		236,883
Jul	279,214
Aug	280,395
Sep		36,619
Oct Nov Dec		7,263
	Harvest	925,919
	Bio-risk -10%	92,592
	Total	1,018,511
	2014 Tac	1,057,950
	over/under	39,439

<tbody>
</tbody>

Under our TAC again by 39,439 pounds...

Measure	Open	Daily	Possession	Annual	1st Fish Size	2nd Fish size
b.1	July 1 - Aug 31	1	2	6	112 cm/40lb	112 cm/40lb
f	Feb 1 - Dec 31 Shoulder	1	2	6	none	83 cm

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[GLG]

Month	Option B.2	Option F
		shoulder
Feb	2,247	2,247
Mar	29,905	29,905
Apr	22,716	24,435
May	28,180	28,958
Jun	215,751	236,883
Jul	307,400	282,535
Aug	302,954	274,378
Sep	36,803	36,619
Oct Nov Dec	6,506	7,263
Feb		2,247
Mar		29,905
Apr		24,435
May		28,958
Jun		236,883
Jul	307,400
Aug	302,954
Sep		36,619
Oct Nov Dec		7,263
	Harvest	976,664
	Bio-risk -10%	97,666
	Total	1,074,330
	2014 Tac	1,057,950
	over/under	(16,380)

<tbody>
</tbody>

Over our TAC by 16,380 lb.... Knock off 2% of the Bio-risk and were in.

Measure	Open	Daily	Possession	Annual	1st Fish Size	2nd Fish size
b.2	July 1 - Aug 31	1	2	6	120 cm/50lb	120 cm/50lb
f	Feb 1 - Dec 31 Shoulder	1	2	6	none	83 cm/15lb

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[GLG]

Month	Option C	Option F
		shoulder
Feb	2,247	2,247
Mar	29,905	29,905
Apr	23,066	24,435
May	31,848	28,958
Jun	224,318	236,883
Jul	297,500	282,535
Aug	292,147	274,378
Sep	39,375	36,619
Oct Nov Dec	7,090	7,263
Feb		2,247
Mar		29,905
Apr		24,435
May		28,958
Jun		236,883
Jul	297,500
Aug	292,147
Sep		36,619
Oct Nov Dec		7,263
	Harvest	955,957
	Bio-risk -10%	95,596
	Total	1,051,553
	2014 Tac	1,057,950
	over/under	6,397

<tbody>
</tbody>

Under our TAC by 6,397 lb....

Measure	Open	Daily	Possession	Annual	1st Fish Size	2nd Fish size
c	July 1 - Aug 31	1	2	6	133 cm/70lb	83 cm/15lb
f	Feb 1 - Dec 31 Shoulder	1	2	6	none	83 cm/15lb

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[GLG]

Month	Option D	Option F
		shoulder
Feb	2,247	2,247
Mar	29,905	29,905
Apr	18,846	24,435
May	26,368	28,958
Jun	199,283	236,883
Jul	282,535	282,535
Aug	274,378	274,378
Sep	31,995	36,619
Oct Nov Dec	6,062	7,263
Feb		2,247
Mar		29,905
Apr		24,435
May		28,958
Jun		236,883
Jul	199,283
Aug	282,535
Sep		36,619
Oct Nov Dec		7,263
	Harvest	848,128
	Bio-risk -10%	84,813
	Total	932,941
	2014 Tac	1,057,950
	over/under	125,009

<tbody>
</tbody>

Under by 125,009.... Here is where the numbers look odd in June. same rule should be same TAC. See how July matches. Hummm...

Measure	Open	Daily	Possession	Annual	1st Fish Size	2nd Fish size
d	July 1 - Aug 31	1	1	6	none	none
f	Feb 1 - Dec 31 Shoulder	1	2	6	none	83 cm/15lb

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[GLG]

Month	Option E	Option F
		shoulder
Feb	2,247	2,247
Mar	29,905	29,905
Apr	25,091	24,435
May	35,338	28,958
Jun	269,347	236,883
Jul	339,394	282,535
Aug	329,864	274,378
Sep	43,031	36,619
Oct Nov Dec	8,132	7,263
Feb		2,247
Mar		29,905
Apr		24,435
May		28,958
Jun		236,883
Jul	339,394
Aug	329,864
Sep		36,619
Oct Nov Dec		7,263
	Harvest	1,035,568
	Bio-risk -10%	103,557
	Total	1,139,125
	2014 Tac	1,057,950
	over/under	(81,175)

<tbody>
</tbody>

Over our TAC by 81,175lb.
That's it for me with the number crunching.

Measure	Open	Daily	Possession	Annual	1st Fish Size	2nd Fish size
e 2012 Management	July 1 - Aug 31	1	2	6	none	83 cm/15lb
f	Feb 1 - Dec 31 Shoulder	1	2	6	none	83 cm/15lb

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[SerengetiGuide]

That's a thing of beauty Gil, thanks for all your hard work. Best option of compromise and 2 fish I've seen for sure. Seems both would work, 60 and 70lbs @ 10% bio risk which is high. Let's hope halibut working board give these a close look, best option for all.

 

[wolf]

Like most of them BUT we wont be having a feb 1 opening thats for sure.... so the numbers could be increased we want to be as close if not over for our TAC if we go way under again i think that could spell trouble for the following years to ALL fishers involved....