Fraser River Sockeye
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fishin_magician
Well-Known Member
I see you and I do math differently. The June numbers differ by over 500 pieces. Those numbers matter and make a big difference when you run it through a complex formula accounting for all kinds of factors and extrapolate those numbers and combine it with all the rest of the test fisheries. Early Stuart survivals are often telling of mortality at sea for the rest of the runs through to the end. Anyways, it's still early early and we'll see what happens. Everyone would be more than happy with a return of 20,000,000 fish. I'll be happy if they open it for 4 per day with a run size of 10,000,000 if that's all that returns...and I'll be plugging in the deep freeze as limiting out won't be an issue with that number.
Peahead
Well-Known Member
Ok can't resist.... this thread needs a soc photo from a past Adam's year!
Photo represents 3 hrs fishing off the Fraser R. mouth ( limit for 3 adults and 2 kids)
I won't add my 2 cents with a prediction for this year but I can say if the socs are around anything like any of the previous Adam's years ( eg. 2002/2006/2010) we will have enough socs and be open long enough to the point where we will get tired of it!! lol
Photo represents 3 hrs fishing off the Fraser R. mouth ( limit for 3 adults and 2 kids)
I won't add my 2 cents with a prediction for this year but I can say if the socs are around anything like any of the previous Adam's years ( eg. 2002/2006/2010) we will have enough socs and be open long enough to the point where we will get tired of it!! lol
abbyfireguy
Well-Known Member
Don't get me started on Ernie Crey!! Paaleeaase!!
Derby
Crew Member
Category(s):
ABORIGINAL - General Information,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Gill Net,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Seine,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Troll,
RECREATIONAL - Salmon
Fishery Notice - Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Subject: FN0601-Salmon - Fraser River Sockeye Update - Areas 11 to 29 - July 8, 2014
The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, July 8, 2014 to receive an update on the
migration of the Fraser sockeye runs and review the status of migration
conditions in the Fraser River watershed.
The majority of sockeye returning in 2014 will be recruits from adult spawners
in 2010, which was one of the largest returns on record. The large forecast
return in 2014 is primarily based on the large number of effective female
sockeye spawners in 2010 which was the largest on this cycle line. However,
forecasts for 2014 are highly uncertain due to variability in annual survival
rates, uncertainty about changes in sockeye productivity and the very large
escapements recorded in many nursery systems in 2010. To put the sockeye run
size forecast uncertainty into context, there is a one in four chance that the
actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below 12,897,000 fish (the 25%
probability level forecast) and there is a three in four chance that the actual
number of returning sockeye will be at or below 41,400,000 fish (the 75%
probability level forecast). For pre-season planning purposes, the Panel used
the 50% probability level forecast (equal chance of a higher or lower return)
of 23,010,000 fish. Fishing decisions will be based on in-season data.
For 2014 pre-season planning purposes the median timing information for the
different run timing groups was used. Updated timing forecasts are not
available at this time. The median dates are July 4th for Early Stuart and
August 4th, 2014 for Chilko. The pre-season forecast of the proportion of
Fraser River sockeye salmon diverting their migration to the Fraser River
through Johnstone Strait is 66%.
The snow pack volume in the Fraser River watershed was near average this year,
however a warmer than normal spring resulted in early snowmelt in a number of
Fraser tributaries resulting in below average snowpack for this time of year
throughout much of the Fraser drainage area. Early runoff may result in higher
than average water temperatures during summer months as river levels are
expected to be below average.
Gill net test fishing began on June 21st in Area 20 (Juan de Fuca Strait) and
on July 23rd, 2014 Area 29 (Fraser River at Whonnock). Recent stock
identification data indicate that Early Stuart sockeye are the predominant
Fraser stock in samples collected from both marine and lower Fraser River test
fisheries. The estimated upriver migration of sockeye past Mission through
July 7th, 2014 is approximately 32,700 fish of which 29,800 are estimated to be
Early Stuart sockeye with the remainder Early Summer stocks.
There were no changes to run sizes or Management Adjustments at the July 8th,
2014 meeting. There are indications that the Early Stuart return is either
much later than the median timing or the run size is well below the p50
forecast of 299,000, or a combination of the two. Updates to Early Stuart run
size are expected on Friday, July 11, 2014 and an update to Early Summer run
size is expected in late July or early August, after the peak of their marine
migration has been observed.
Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial fisheries have been
limited and directed at chinook with non-retention of sockeye. Early Stuarts
are currently tracking well below the p50 level of 299,000, which has resulted
in the initiation of the 3 week window closure with non-retention measures in
marine and in-river FSC fisheries that are targeting other species. Limited FSC
fisheries directed on Early Stuart sockeye may be considered if there is a
significant increase in abundance in the coming weeks. Fishers are requested to
check for the opening times and any restrictions in their local area. There are
no planned commercial or recreational fisheries at this time.
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Jennifer Nener 604-666-6478
Fisheries and Oceans Canada Operations Center - FN0601
Sent July 9, 2014 at 10:29
Visit us on the Web at http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca
If you have any questions or would like to unsubscribe, please contact us via e-mail to: OpsCentre@pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca
ABORIGINAL - General Information,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Gill Net,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Seine,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Troll,
RECREATIONAL - Salmon
Fishery Notice - Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Subject: FN0601-Salmon - Fraser River Sockeye Update - Areas 11 to 29 - July 8, 2014
The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, July 8, 2014 to receive an update on the
migration of the Fraser sockeye runs and review the status of migration
conditions in the Fraser River watershed.
The majority of sockeye returning in 2014 will be recruits from adult spawners
in 2010, which was one of the largest returns on record. The large forecast
return in 2014 is primarily based on the large number of effective female
sockeye spawners in 2010 which was the largest on this cycle line. However,
forecasts for 2014 are highly uncertain due to variability in annual survival
rates, uncertainty about changes in sockeye productivity and the very large
escapements recorded in many nursery systems in 2010. To put the sockeye run
size forecast uncertainty into context, there is a one in four chance that the
actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below 12,897,000 fish (the 25%
probability level forecast) and there is a three in four chance that the actual
number of returning sockeye will be at or below 41,400,000 fish (the 75%
probability level forecast). For pre-season planning purposes, the Panel used
the 50% probability level forecast (equal chance of a higher or lower return)
of 23,010,000 fish. Fishing decisions will be based on in-season data.
For 2014 pre-season planning purposes the median timing information for the
different run timing groups was used. Updated timing forecasts are not
available at this time. The median dates are July 4th for Early Stuart and
August 4th, 2014 for Chilko. The pre-season forecast of the proportion of
Fraser River sockeye salmon diverting their migration to the Fraser River
through Johnstone Strait is 66%.
The snow pack volume in the Fraser River watershed was near average this year,
however a warmer than normal spring resulted in early snowmelt in a number of
Fraser tributaries resulting in below average snowpack for this time of year
throughout much of the Fraser drainage area. Early runoff may result in higher
than average water temperatures during summer months as river levels are
expected to be below average.
Gill net test fishing began on June 21st in Area 20 (Juan de Fuca Strait) and
on July 23rd, 2014 Area 29 (Fraser River at Whonnock). Recent stock
identification data indicate that Early Stuart sockeye are the predominant
Fraser stock in samples collected from both marine and lower Fraser River test
fisheries. The estimated upriver migration of sockeye past Mission through
July 7th, 2014 is approximately 32,700 fish of which 29,800 are estimated to be
Early Stuart sockeye with the remainder Early Summer stocks.
There were no changes to run sizes or Management Adjustments at the July 8th,
2014 meeting. There are indications that the Early Stuart return is either
much later than the median timing or the run size is well below the p50
forecast of 299,000, or a combination of the two. Updates to Early Stuart run
size are expected on Friday, July 11, 2014 and an update to Early Summer run
size is expected in late July or early August, after the peak of their marine
migration has been observed.
Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial fisheries have been
limited and directed at chinook with non-retention of sockeye. Early Stuarts
are currently tracking well below the p50 level of 299,000, which has resulted
in the initiation of the 3 week window closure with non-retention measures in
marine and in-river FSC fisheries that are targeting other species. Limited FSC
fisheries directed on Early Stuart sockeye may be considered if there is a
significant increase in abundance in the coming weeks. Fishers are requested to
check for the opening times and any restrictions in their local area. There are
no planned commercial or recreational fisheries at this time.
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Jennifer Nener 604-666-6478
Fisheries and Oceans Canada Operations Center - FN0601
Sent July 9, 2014 at 10:29
Visit us on the Web at http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca
If you have any questions or would like to unsubscribe, please contact us via e-mail to: OpsCentre@pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca
fishin_magician
Well-Known Member
Uh oh...not good.
fishin solo
Crew Member
everything is a prediction with dfo remember 6 months ago dfo said over 100 million return well its coming down to few weeks and now they say we will be lucky to get 40percent of therefirst big prediction.dfo needs a complet overhaul they needed it 30 years ago and they need it now still
salmon slayer
Active Member
DFO at no time ever predicted a return of 100 million. That was the sun and province newspaper. Sadly thats what people will remember this high number. From the get go there was a low probability high number 75 million to a low probability low number of 7.5 million. The 50% has always been around the 23 million mark. If we have a return of over 22 million at the end of the day, it will be the 6th largest return recorded for the Fraser.
Its too early at this point to know what will return numbers will be.
Its too early at this point to know what will return numbers will be.
Last edited by a moderator:
Chinook on the Hook
New Member
Check this out!! This could be Very Good or Very Bad Total catch for Sockeye in Alaska this year is 21 millon
http://kdlg.org/category/fisheries
http://kdlg.org/category/fisheries
devers
Member
Category(s):
ABORIGINAL - General Information,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Gill Net,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Seine,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Troll,
RECREATIONAL - Salmon
Fishery Notice - Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Subject: FN0635-Salmon - Fraser River Sockeye Update - Areas 11 to 29 - July 15, 2014
The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, July 15, 2014 to receive an update on the
migration of the Fraser sockeye runs and review the status of migration
conditions in the Fraser River watershed.
The migration of Fraser sockeye through Juan de Fuca Strait has been decreasing
over the past six days as indicated by the declining catches in the Area 20
gillnet test fishery. The Whonnock test fishery showed an increase in catch
over the past week. Area 12 gillnet fishery began on July 10th, 2014 and catch
levels are relatively low but consistent with expectations for this period.
Recent stock ID analyses indicate that the proportion of Early Stuart sockeye
in the Juan de Fuca test fisheries is decreasing but most recent samples still
contributing 41% and 46% respectively. In the Area 12 gillnet test fishery
Early Stuart sockeye are present in higher proportions than normally seen. In-
river, Early Stuart continues to be the largest proportion (80%) with Early
Summers making up the majority of the balance with low percentages of Summers
(Harrison) beginning to show in the samples.
The estimated upriver migration of sockeye past Mission through July 14th, 2014
is approximately 135,100 fish in total of which 111,000 are estimated to be
Early Stuart sockeye, 14,400 Early Summer run and 9,700 Summer run.
River discharge levels have declined over the past week to a level of about
4,919 cms for July 14, 2014, which is below the historical average discharge on
this day (5,729 cms. Water temperature at Qualark is 17.8 degrees Celsius, 2.1
degrees above average of 15.7 degrees for this date and temperatures are
forecast to rise to over 19 degrees over the next week.
At today’s meeting the Fraser River Panel did not change the run size estimate
for Early Stuart sockeye of 189,000, with a mid-point migration date of July
7th, 2014 in Area 20 but did approve an increase in the management adjustment
factor from the pre-season estimate of 0.89 to the new level of 2.12.
Management adjustments are used to determine the additional amount of fish that
are allowed to escape upstream to help achieve spawning escapement targets for
Fraser River sockeye.
Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial fisheries have been
limited and directed at chinook salmon. A three week window closure to protect
Early Stuart sockeye remains in place for in-river and marine FSC fisheries.
Limited in-river FSC fisheries targeting chinook are being conducted at this
time.
Based on current assessments, there is no Total Allowable Catch of Early Stuart
sockeye available for directed harvest except for the terminal area where a
modest directed fishery is permitted. Fishers are requested to check updated
times and restrictions for their local area. There are no planned commercial or
recreational fisheries at this time.
The next in-season meeting of the Panel is scheduled to occur on Friday, July
18, 2014.
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Jennifer Nener 604-666-6478
Fisheries and Oceans Canada Operations Center - FN0635
Sent July 16, 2014 at 13:38
Visit us on the Web at http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca
ABORIGINAL - General Information,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Gill Net,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Seine,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Troll,
RECREATIONAL - Salmon
Fishery Notice - Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Subject: FN0635-Salmon - Fraser River Sockeye Update - Areas 11 to 29 - July 15, 2014
The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, July 15, 2014 to receive an update on the
migration of the Fraser sockeye runs and review the status of migration
conditions in the Fraser River watershed.
The migration of Fraser sockeye through Juan de Fuca Strait has been decreasing
over the past six days as indicated by the declining catches in the Area 20
gillnet test fishery. The Whonnock test fishery showed an increase in catch
over the past week. Area 12 gillnet fishery began on July 10th, 2014 and catch
levels are relatively low but consistent with expectations for this period.
Recent stock ID analyses indicate that the proportion of Early Stuart sockeye
in the Juan de Fuca test fisheries is decreasing but most recent samples still
contributing 41% and 46% respectively. In the Area 12 gillnet test fishery
Early Stuart sockeye are present in higher proportions than normally seen. In-
river, Early Stuart continues to be the largest proportion (80%) with Early
Summers making up the majority of the balance with low percentages of Summers
(Harrison) beginning to show in the samples.
The estimated upriver migration of sockeye past Mission through July 14th, 2014
is approximately 135,100 fish in total of which 111,000 are estimated to be
Early Stuart sockeye, 14,400 Early Summer run and 9,700 Summer run.
River discharge levels have declined over the past week to a level of about
4,919 cms for July 14, 2014, which is below the historical average discharge on
this day (5,729 cms. Water temperature at Qualark is 17.8 degrees Celsius, 2.1
degrees above average of 15.7 degrees for this date and temperatures are
forecast to rise to over 19 degrees over the next week.
At today’s meeting the Fraser River Panel did not change the run size estimate
for Early Stuart sockeye of 189,000, with a mid-point migration date of July
7th, 2014 in Area 20 but did approve an increase in the management adjustment
factor from the pre-season estimate of 0.89 to the new level of 2.12.
Management adjustments are used to determine the additional amount of fish that
are allowed to escape upstream to help achieve spawning escapement targets for
Fraser River sockeye.
Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial fisheries have been
limited and directed at chinook salmon. A three week window closure to protect
Early Stuart sockeye remains in place for in-river and marine FSC fisheries.
Limited in-river FSC fisheries targeting chinook are being conducted at this
time.
Based on current assessments, there is no Total Allowable Catch of Early Stuart
sockeye available for directed harvest except for the terminal area where a
modest directed fishery is permitted. Fishers are requested to check updated
times and restrictions for their local area. There are no planned commercial or
recreational fisheries at this time.
The next in-season meeting of the Panel is scheduled to occur on Friday, July
18, 2014.
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Jennifer Nener 604-666-6478
Fisheries and Oceans Canada Operations Center - FN0635
Sent July 16, 2014 at 13:38
Visit us on the Web at http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca
sammyslabber
Active Member
"Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial fisheries have been
limited and directed at chinook salmon. A three week window closure to protect
Early Stuart sockeye remains in place for in-river and marine FSC fisheries.
Limited in-river FSC fisheries targeting chinook are being conducted at this
time"
Not Sockeye,ironic that some zones still have a Chinook size slot in place and at the same time there is limited F.N. chinook openings on the Fraser.
limited and directed at chinook salmon. A three week window closure to protect
Early Stuart sockeye remains in place for in-river and marine FSC fisheries.
Limited in-river FSC fisheries targeting chinook are being conducted at this
time"
Not Sockeye,ironic that some zones still have a Chinook size slot in place and at the same time there is limited F.N. chinook openings on the Fraser.
spring time
Well-Known Member
there has been fn openings for chinook since march
devers
Member
I would suggest this is soemwhat encouraging -
Category(s):
ABORIGINAL - General Information,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Gill Net,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Seine,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Troll,
RECREATIONAL - Salmon
Fishery Notice - Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Subject: FN0653-Salmon - Fraser River Sockeye Update - Areas 11 to 29 - July 18, 2014
The Fraser River Panel met Friday, July 18, 2014 to receive an update on the
migration of the Fraser sockeye runs and review the status of migration
conditions in the Fraser River watershed.
The migration of sockeye through marine and lower Fraser River assessment areas
and the Mission hydroacoustic site has been modest over recent days. Sockeye
catches in the Area 20 gillnet test fishery have decreased over the past week
but increased last night. The Area 12 gillnet test fishery catches have
remained relatively stable since the start on July 10 and are at slightly
higher than expected levels for this period.
Recent stock identification analyses indicate that the proportion of Early
Stuart sockeye in the Juan de Fuca and Area 12 test fisheries is higher than
expected at 32% and 37% respectively. In the Fraserriver, Early Stuart
continues to be the largest proportion (50%) with Early Summers at 20% and
Summers (all Harrison River) at 30% in the most recent samples.
The estimated upriver migration of sockeye past Mission through July 17th is
210,400 fish in total of which 159,800 are estimated to be Early Stuart
sockeye, 32,000 Early Summer run and 18,600 Summer run.
River discharge levels have declined over the past week to a level of 4,518 cms
for July 17, which is 20% below the historical average discharge on this day
(5,656 cms). Water temperature at Qualark is 18.8 degrees celcius, 2.8 degrees
above the average of 16.0 degrees for this date. Water temperatures are
forecast to decrease over the next week with the expected onset of cooler
weather.
At today’s meeting the Fraser River Panel adopted an increase to the estimated
run size of Early Stuart sockeye from 189,000 to 240,000 and a later estimated
migration peak of of July 9th from the pre-season forecast of July 7th. The
Panel did not change the management adjustment factor of 2.12 previously
adopted for Early Stuart sockeye. Management adjustments are additional fish
that are allowed to escape upstream to help achieve spawning escapement targets
for Fraser River sockeye.
Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial fisheries have been
limited and directed at chinook salmon. A three week window closure to protect
Early Stuart sockeye has been extended from pre-season dates and remains in
place for in-river and marine FSC fisheries. Limited in-river FSC fisheries
targeting chinook are being conducted at this time.
Based on current assessments, there is no Total Allowable Catch of Early Stuart
sockeye available for directed harvest except for the terminal area where a
modest directed fishery is permitted. Fishers are requested to check updated
times and restrictions for their local area. There are no planned commercial or
recreational fisheries at this time.
The next in-season meeting of the Panel is scheduled to occur on Tuesday, July
23, 2014.
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Les Jantz 250-318-1058
Category(s):
ABORIGINAL - General Information,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Gill Net,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Seine,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Troll,
RECREATIONAL - Salmon
Fishery Notice - Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Subject: FN0653-Salmon - Fraser River Sockeye Update - Areas 11 to 29 - July 18, 2014
The Fraser River Panel met Friday, July 18, 2014 to receive an update on the
migration of the Fraser sockeye runs and review the status of migration
conditions in the Fraser River watershed.
The migration of sockeye through marine and lower Fraser River assessment areas
and the Mission hydroacoustic site has been modest over recent days. Sockeye
catches in the Area 20 gillnet test fishery have decreased over the past week
but increased last night. The Area 12 gillnet test fishery catches have
remained relatively stable since the start on July 10 and are at slightly
higher than expected levels for this period.
Recent stock identification analyses indicate that the proportion of Early
Stuart sockeye in the Juan de Fuca and Area 12 test fisheries is higher than
expected at 32% and 37% respectively. In the Fraserriver, Early Stuart
continues to be the largest proportion (50%) with Early Summers at 20% and
Summers (all Harrison River) at 30% in the most recent samples.
The estimated upriver migration of sockeye past Mission through July 17th is
210,400 fish in total of which 159,800 are estimated to be Early Stuart
sockeye, 32,000 Early Summer run and 18,600 Summer run.
River discharge levels have declined over the past week to a level of 4,518 cms
for July 17, which is 20% below the historical average discharge on this day
(5,656 cms). Water temperature at Qualark is 18.8 degrees celcius, 2.8 degrees
above the average of 16.0 degrees for this date. Water temperatures are
forecast to decrease over the next week with the expected onset of cooler
weather.
At today’s meeting the Fraser River Panel adopted an increase to the estimated
run size of Early Stuart sockeye from 189,000 to 240,000 and a later estimated
migration peak of of July 9th from the pre-season forecast of July 7th. The
Panel did not change the management adjustment factor of 2.12 previously
adopted for Early Stuart sockeye. Management adjustments are additional fish
that are allowed to escape upstream to help achieve spawning escapement targets
for Fraser River sockeye.
Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial fisheries have been
limited and directed at chinook salmon. A three week window closure to protect
Early Stuart sockeye has been extended from pre-season dates and remains in
place for in-river and marine FSC fisheries. Limited in-river FSC fisheries
targeting chinook are being conducted at this time.
Based on current assessments, there is no Total Allowable Catch of Early Stuart
sockeye available for directed harvest except for the terminal area where a
modest directed fishery is permitted. Fishers are requested to check updated
times and restrictions for their local area. There are no planned commercial or
recreational fisheries at this time.
The next in-season meeting of the Panel is scheduled to occur on Tuesday, July
23, 2014.
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Les Jantz 250-318-1058
Cougar Gold
Member
Where do people usually fish in the saltwater for the sockeye?
Big Green Machine
Well-Known Member
Sand heads in Richmond
nicnat
Well-Known Member
depends which arm most of them are staging at, anywhere from sandheads up to point grey, and if staging at the north arm into the harbor and off passage isle some years. I suspect if they are anywhere close to the projections for this year it really won't matter, fish wherever you are closest to.
Am I launching at McDonald and heading up? Is the launch there good or steep. I have a two wheel f250 diesel and it can pull but I had some serious issues at Sunset at the launch as well as the massive steep climb back out to the HWY. Scared the crap out of me! Looking for a nice launch that I can get in and out anytime with my 2whl.
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