Fraser River Sockeye 2013

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I guess it is about time someone started a thread for this year's Fraser River Sockeye run. Let's hope there is an opening.

Has anyone seen any numbers regarding test numbers from Johnstone Straight or what the estimated numbers lool like for the Fraser for this year?

Anyone remember what 2009 numbrs looked like? I am not sure they are that relevant but if they are I guess everyone is "holding their breath" re what 2014 might look like given what the numbers were in 2010.

Cheers and tight lines
 
I'm quite worried if the 2014 numbers are huge again they will release the bag fleet to make sure such a phenomenon does not repeat itself in 2018.

The rumors I heard earlier in the season was to expect an opening but DFO always acts slow usually it opens after the bulk of the run has passed my home waters. Lately I'm hearing the run size may be downgraded so I'm not holding my breath. Heard of some nice ones C&R'd though usually not too many are caught on the small run years.
 
No doubt there will be the usual bag fleet in the San Juans scooping them up by the tens of thousands as they pass thru..............as well as Frasier kings.

Hope enough get thru for escapement and retention for you guys north of the border.
 
Remember, 2009 was the year of the missing sockeye - the reason why they created the Cohen commission. So based on that alone the run size would be very small this year. Of course there are more factors in the equation that could trigger different results.
 
If you want the official forecast, you can find it the South Coast IFMP on DFO's site. Links to it were published in a Fisheries Notice back in March I think. It divides up into all the different Fraser stocks and is pretty in depth.

Basically it's a low return, 2009 brood year being a big factor on the 4 yr fish. Right now "Early Summer" stocks are moving though the approaches (JDF and Johnstone) and no fisheries will be planned on those stocks for sure. If we get an opening this year, it will only be on the "Summer" stocks, and only when test fisheries confirm they are pretty much the only fish in an area, and that they are in fact abundant enough.

So keep an eye on the announcements from the Fraser River Panel. If it happens, I think it will be a very small window in late Jul and/or early Aug. Should be fun sorting them out of the masses of pinks...

Here are the first two announcements:

http://psc.us7.list-manage.com/track/click?u=ba32ab9803ff455105034bd8c&id=3b5fafcf3d&e=dab799b2db

http://psc.us7.list-manage.com/track/click?u=ba32ab9803ff455105034bd8c&id=c1db1f938b&e=dab799b2db

I subscribed to get these via email from the PSC site somewhere.
 
I guess it is about time someone started a thread for this year's Fraser River Sockeye run. Let's hope there is an opening.

Has anyone seen any numbers regarding test numbers from Johnstone Straight or what the estimated numbers lool like for the Fraser for this year?

Anyone remember what 2009 numbrs looked like? I am not sure they are that relevant but if they are I guess everyone is "holding their breath" re what 2014 might look like given what the numbers were in 2010.

Cheers and tight lines

There are no numbers for Johnstone Straight yet as they haven't started the test fishery in that area. There are numbers coming in from Area 20 and also 29 (Fraser River). They are better than 2009 but not by much.

It's still very possible that we will see an early August opening if the summer run is decent.
 
Doesn't look good for an opening this year

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided forecasts of Fraser River sockeye salmon abundance, timing and diversion rate to the Panel. The majority of sockeye returning in 2013 will be recruits from adult spawners in 2009, which was one of the lowest returns on record. DFO has advised that Fraser River sockeye salmon forecasts for 2013 remain highly uncertain due to variability in annual survival rates and uncertainty about changes in their productivity. To put the sockeye run size forecast uncertainty into context, there is a one in four chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below 2,655,000 fish (the 25% probability level forecast) and there is a three in four chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below 8,595,000 fish (the 75% probability level forecast).

also found this interesting after we have been restricted in area's 18.19.20

Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial fisheries have been limited and directed at chinook with non-retention of sockeye. Early Stuarts are tracking at or slightly above the p50 level of 211,000, which provides an opportunity for limited FSC fisheries in the Fraser River, and lifting of non-retention measures in marine FSC fisheries that are targeting other species, in areas where there are no other conservation constraints.
 
I noticed that too Scott. I would have highlighted the word LIMITED. WTF does that mean? DFO should explain what is being done to limit that fishery to aid in the recovery. I bet its FA.
 
I think DFO runs on a "knee jerk" basis Rollie.
let's try this, oh wait that didn't work, lets try something else, nope that didn't work either.
we need a west coast management team that understands our fishery.:mad:
 
If there is a sockeye opening it will be aug. 15th, you won't see masses of pinks till sept.
 
Troll four lines in Browns Bay mid Aug. with small pink hootchies. When your done counting quadruple headers, come back and correct that post :)
 
Yep. Fraser bound pinks. Troll for socks mid Aug in Browns and your biggest by catch will be pinks.
 
Seems that just after I started this post DFO released a Notice on the Sockeye.

Looks like there will be updates on a regular basis from now on.
 
I think DFO runs on a "knee jerk" basis Rollie.
let's try this, oh wait that didn't work, lets try something else, nope that didn't work either.
we need a west coast management team that understands our fishery.:mad:

With regards to Fraser Sockeye, the management of the fishery is a complex set of tasks requiring the analysis of a lot of information coming in from different sources (test fisheries, creel, acoustic surveys and spawning ground surveys) that can constantly change from preseason to postseason. When you add in environmental conditions it can make it even more complex. People with the appropriate technical expertise need to make decisions (not always popular) frequently and in a timely fashion as the salmon do not stop for people to make up their minds. These decisions have to be made often from conflicting information coming in from different sources. They also have competing interests to deal with such as commercial, recreational and First Nations. With budgets being cut, fisheries managers, biologists and technicians have to make do with less and make some difficult decisions in order to get as much information as possible to do the best job possible. Not an easy situation; however, Cohen recognized these efforts and understood the complexities behind them. You should try also.

You might also want to read this: http://www.cohencommission.ca/en/pdf/FinalReport/CohenCommissionFinalReport_Vol01_05.pdf#zoom=100
 
Latest on Fraser River Sockeye -

"Fishery Notice

Category(s): ABORIGINAL - General Information
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Gill Net
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Seine
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Troll
RECREATIONAL - Salmon

Subject: FN0666-Salmon - Fraser River Sockeye Update - Areas 11 to 29 - July 26, 2013

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Current information indicates that there is Total Allowable Catch available for
Early Summer and Summer Run sockeye, enabling limited Food, Social and
Ceremonial fisheries to begin in South Coast marine areas, in the Lower Fraser
River area, and in the mid-Fraser area. A closure to protect Early Stuart
sockeye remains in effect in portions of the upper Fraser River, with the
exception of small First Nations harvests for Food, Social and Ceremonial
purposes in terminal areas in accordance with fisheries management plans. More
specific information about openings in different areas is provided in Fisheries
Notices which can be found at http://www-ops2.pac.dfo-
mpo.gc.ca/xnet/content/fns/index.cfm

An update from the July 26, 2013 Fraser River Panel meeting follows:

The Fraser River Panel met July 26, 2013 to review assessment data on Fraser
River sockeye salmon and environmental conditions in the Fraser River
watershed. Marine test fishing catches in Johnstone Strait and Juan de Fuca
Strait indicate an increase in the abundance of Fraser sockeye salmon migrating
through the marine approach areas. The diversion rate of Fraser sockeye through
Johnstone Strait is presently estimated to be 43%. DNA analysis of samples
collected from recent test fisheries in Johnstone Strait and Juan de Fuca
Strait indicate that Early Summer-run and Summer-run sockeye are the dominant
Fraser sockeye runs currently migrating through the marine assessment areas.
The migration of sockeye past the Mission hydroacoustic site has increased in
recent days.

The marine migration of Early Stuart sockeye is complete. At the meeting
today, the in-season run size estimate of 180,000 Early Stuart was unchanged.
The estimated escapement of Early Stuart sockeye past Mission through July 25
is 178,000 fish. DFO initiated visual surveys of Early Stuart spawning grounds
on July 23, 2013, although sockeye were first observed off the mouth of Gluske
Creek on July 19, 2013. The sockeye are reported to be in good condition.
Details on DFO's Fraser sockeye escapement enumeration plans this season are
available at http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fm-gp/fraser/docs/Escapement/sockeye-
rouge-eng.html.


Assessments of Early Summer-run sockeye run size are currently exceeding the
p50 or mid-point forecast of 235,000 sockeye, with Pitt River sockeye appearing
to be much larger than forecast. A more accurate assessment of Early Summer-run
sockeye abundance should be available next week after further data are
collected. The estimated escapement of Early Summer-run sockeye past Mission
through July 25, 2013 is 181,000 fish.

It is early in the marine migration of Summer-run sockeye through marine
assessment areas. Summer-run sockeye (Chilko, Quesnel, Late Stuart, Stellako,
Harrison, Raft, and North Thompson) are expected to provide most of the fishing
opportunities directed at Fraser sockeye this season. The peak migration of
Summer-run sockeye (Chilko) was forecast to be earlier than average. Current
assessments suggest that their marine timing may be later than expected. In-
season assessments of Summer-run sockeye abundance will not be available until
after their expected peak migration period through Juan de Fuca Strait in early
August. The estimated escapement of Summer-run sockeye past Mission through
July 25, 2013 is 50,000 fish.

Catches of pink salmon in marine test fisheries have been at much higher levels
than usual for this early in the season. It is likely that a large proportion
of these pink salmon are from Canada South Coast (non-Fraser) and Washington
pink salmon stocks that typically migrate earlier through the marine assessment
areas than Fraser River pink salmon. DNA analysis of pink salmon tissue samples
from marine test and commercial fisheries will be conducted over the next
several weeks to provide estimates of stock composition and assist with run
size estimation of Fraser River pink salmon.

On July 25, 2013, the Fraser River water discharge at Hope was 4,040 cms, which
is approximately 19% lower than average for this date. The temperature of the
Fraser River at Qualark Creek on July 25, 2013 was 20.0 C, which is 2.9 C
higher than average for this date. Sustained exposure of sockeye to Fraser
River water temperatures in this range may slow their migration and cause
elevated levels of pre-spawning mortality. Fraser River water temperatures are
forecast to decrease to slightly below 18 C over the next few days. There were
no changes to management adjustments at the meeting today. Management
adjustments are additional fish that are allowed to migrate into the Fraser
system to help achieve spawning escapement targets.


The next in-season meeting of the Panel is scheduled to occur on Monday, July
29th, 2013.


FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Jennifer Nener
604-666-9993



Fisheries & Oceans Operations Center - FN0666
Sent July 26, 2013 at 1453
 
I can't say we intercepted tons on JDF so not surprising..I am surprised FN still wants to go and fish them would be best to leave them alone.... Scary those numbers are shocking.....I remember those numbers were huge not too long back.

"In-season assessments of Summer-run sockeye abundance will not be available until
after their expected peak migration period through Juan de Fuca Strait in early
August."

I'm remaining optimistic. Are you guys shaking many/any sockeye in Sooke?
 
"In-season assessments of Summer-run sockeye abundance will not be available until
after their expected peak migration period through Juan de Fuca Strait in early
August."

I'm remaining optimistic. Are you guys shaking many/any sockeye in Sooke?

I'm also optimistic for a short opening in August. If it does open then it would likely be 2 per day only. The catch rates in the test sets are showing increased numbers of sox lately.
 
"In-season assessments of Summer-run sockeye abundance will not be available until
after their expected peak migration period through Juan de Fuca Strait in early
August."

I'm remaining optimistic. Are you guys shaking many/any sockeye in Sooke?

....at least 1 or 2 a trip... I don't mean to cry wolf but there seems to be a native fly in the ointment... dfo should let them eat pinks!!!
 
lots of sockeye jumping off port hardy last few days test gillnet boat catches have been very good for three or four days now
 
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