Are you ready for an early May Federal Election?
Federal election could come in May
By Mark Kennedy, Postmedia News February 17, 2011 5:21 PM Be the first to post a comment
•Story•Photos ( 1 )
Senior players on Parliament Hill see an election coming, and the backroom party operatives who plan their campaigns are in full-tilt preparation.Photograph by: Christina Ryan, Calgary HeraldOTTAWA — Canada's political parties are careening toward a parliamentary confrontation that is expected to end with an election on May 2 or 9.
The senior players on Parliament Hill can see it coming. The backroom party operatives who plan their campaigns are in full-tilt preparation. And as one insider said Thursday, the scenario has now become regarded as "extremely plausible."
The chronology of what lies ahead is simple: Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is expected to bring down his budget on March 22. There will be a confidence vote on the budget, possibly on March 24.
Should the government, as many now expect, lose that vote and Harper opt for a minimum-length campaign of at least 36 days, Canadians would go to the polls on May 2.
If the confidence vote were to be delayed a few days, but still goes against the governing Tories, election day would be May 9.
So, regardless of whether they want it, Canadian voters had best ready themselves for a spring campaign likely to be marked by heated debate among the leaders, nasty TV ads and rhetorical warnings about how the future of the country hinges on the election-night result.
By the time the end comes for the 40th Parliament, it will have been nearly 2 1/2 years since the last election.
Right now, all the party leaders say they don't want an election but everyone will point the finger of responsibility at their political rivals when one occurs.
But there is an air of frenzied activity in the nation's capital as the parties prepare for battle.
Brad Lavigne, NDP national director, says his party hopes to get a concession from the Tories in the budget which is worthy of supporting them in the parliamentary vote.
"If not, we are ready to go," he said Thursday.
"Our ads are ready to go, our plane is ready to go, our buses are ready to go, our platform is in its final stages of its draft, our candidates are being nominated at a record pace. Listen, we're election-ready."
Fred DeLorey, communications director for the Conservative Party, said the Liberals are "openly calling for an election" and are planning to vote against the budget unless it raises corporate taxes.
"We, of course, have to be prepared," he said. "The party is taking the necessary steps to ensure we are ready, which is the responsible thing to do."
Here's a voter's guide to the political gamesmanship now at play in Ottawa:
How will it happen?
Prime Minister Stephen Harper has said the budget will reduce the deficit and sustain economic recovery, promising it will not contain a "poison pill" that would force parties to vote against it.
The Liberals have made it clear they will oppose the budget. If Harper wants to avert an election, he needs the support of either the Bloc Quebecois or NDP. In the case of the Bloc, he'll need to provide billions of dollars in specific demands for the province. Not looking likely. If he wants the NDP onside, he'll need to offer up hundreds of millions of dollars in improved seniors benefits under the Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS). The ball is in his court, say the New Democrats.
But if the Tories are keen to get on the campaign trail, they'll ignore the NDP demands and bring down a budget without the necessary concessions.
Does Harper want an election?
The prime minister says he wants to govern and focus on the economy. But there are factors which suggest it's in his party's interest to be toppled in Parliament now.
A string of recent public opinion polls suggests the Tories have momentum and the Liberals are plunging. A surge of support for the Tories in Ontario, the very place where Harper hopes to make an electoral breakthrough, is largely behind the shift in public opinion.
Meanwhile, the Tories have been airing attack ads on TV which accuse Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff of lacking loyalty to Canada and of planning to form a coalition government with the NDP and Quebec separatists. The ads, which the Liberals contend are filled with falsehoods, appear to be working. They are defining Harper's main opponent in the minds of many voters. There may not be a better time for Harper to pounce.
Moreover, with the Tories on the defensive in Parliament over the document-doctoring scandal involving Bev Oda, it's in Harper's interest to shut down parliamentary scrutiny in the affair before it does any more damage.
How will the campaign start?
The battle lines will be clear. Harper will call on Canadians to give him a "stable" majority government to prevent the dangers of a Liberal-NDP-Bloc Quebecois coalition from taking power. He will portray himself as the best economic manager and promise to keep criminals in jail longer.
Ignatieff will argue Canadian democracy is jeopardized because of Harper's autocratic style. He'll promise to end corporate tax cuts and deliver social program initiatives.
NDP leader Jack Layton, while training his fire on the governing Tories, won't ignore Ignatieff. In the eyes of many NDP supporters, Ignatieff can't be trusted when he says he wants their votes.
Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe knows he is sitting pretty. His party's dominance in Quebec is not threatened, nor will it be during a campaign.
mkennedy@postmedia.com
Twitter.com/Mark_Kennedy_
© Copyright (c) Postmedia News
Read more: http://www.canada.com/news/Federal+election+could+come/4305134/story.html#ixzz1EHQ9iEmL
Federal election could come in May
By Mark Kennedy, Postmedia News February 17, 2011 5:21 PM Be the first to post a comment
•Story•Photos ( 1 )
Senior players on Parliament Hill see an election coming, and the backroom party operatives who plan their campaigns are in full-tilt preparation.Photograph by: Christina Ryan, Calgary HeraldOTTAWA — Canada's political parties are careening toward a parliamentary confrontation that is expected to end with an election on May 2 or 9.
The senior players on Parliament Hill can see it coming. The backroom party operatives who plan their campaigns are in full-tilt preparation. And as one insider said Thursday, the scenario has now become regarded as "extremely plausible."
The chronology of what lies ahead is simple: Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is expected to bring down his budget on March 22. There will be a confidence vote on the budget, possibly on March 24.
Should the government, as many now expect, lose that vote and Harper opt for a minimum-length campaign of at least 36 days, Canadians would go to the polls on May 2.
If the confidence vote were to be delayed a few days, but still goes against the governing Tories, election day would be May 9.
So, regardless of whether they want it, Canadian voters had best ready themselves for a spring campaign likely to be marked by heated debate among the leaders, nasty TV ads and rhetorical warnings about how the future of the country hinges on the election-night result.
By the time the end comes for the 40th Parliament, it will have been nearly 2 1/2 years since the last election.
Right now, all the party leaders say they don't want an election but everyone will point the finger of responsibility at their political rivals when one occurs.
But there is an air of frenzied activity in the nation's capital as the parties prepare for battle.
Brad Lavigne, NDP national director, says his party hopes to get a concession from the Tories in the budget which is worthy of supporting them in the parliamentary vote.
"If not, we are ready to go," he said Thursday.
"Our ads are ready to go, our plane is ready to go, our buses are ready to go, our platform is in its final stages of its draft, our candidates are being nominated at a record pace. Listen, we're election-ready."
Fred DeLorey, communications director for the Conservative Party, said the Liberals are "openly calling for an election" and are planning to vote against the budget unless it raises corporate taxes.
"We, of course, have to be prepared," he said. "The party is taking the necessary steps to ensure we are ready, which is the responsible thing to do."
Here's a voter's guide to the political gamesmanship now at play in Ottawa:
How will it happen?
Prime Minister Stephen Harper has said the budget will reduce the deficit and sustain economic recovery, promising it will not contain a "poison pill" that would force parties to vote against it.
The Liberals have made it clear they will oppose the budget. If Harper wants to avert an election, he needs the support of either the Bloc Quebecois or NDP. In the case of the Bloc, he'll need to provide billions of dollars in specific demands for the province. Not looking likely. If he wants the NDP onside, he'll need to offer up hundreds of millions of dollars in improved seniors benefits under the Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS). The ball is in his court, say the New Democrats.
But if the Tories are keen to get on the campaign trail, they'll ignore the NDP demands and bring down a budget without the necessary concessions.
Does Harper want an election?
The prime minister says he wants to govern and focus on the economy. But there are factors which suggest it's in his party's interest to be toppled in Parliament now.
A string of recent public opinion polls suggests the Tories have momentum and the Liberals are plunging. A surge of support for the Tories in Ontario, the very place where Harper hopes to make an electoral breakthrough, is largely behind the shift in public opinion.
Meanwhile, the Tories have been airing attack ads on TV which accuse Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff of lacking loyalty to Canada and of planning to form a coalition government with the NDP and Quebec separatists. The ads, which the Liberals contend are filled with falsehoods, appear to be working. They are defining Harper's main opponent in the minds of many voters. There may not be a better time for Harper to pounce.
Moreover, with the Tories on the defensive in Parliament over the document-doctoring scandal involving Bev Oda, it's in Harper's interest to shut down parliamentary scrutiny in the affair before it does any more damage.
How will the campaign start?
The battle lines will be clear. Harper will call on Canadians to give him a "stable" majority government to prevent the dangers of a Liberal-NDP-Bloc Quebecois coalition from taking power. He will portray himself as the best economic manager and promise to keep criminals in jail longer.
Ignatieff will argue Canadian democracy is jeopardized because of Harper's autocratic style. He'll promise to end corporate tax cuts and deliver social program initiatives.
NDP leader Jack Layton, while training his fire on the governing Tories, won't ignore Ignatieff. In the eyes of many NDP supporters, Ignatieff can't be trusted when he says he wants their votes.
Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe knows he is sitting pretty. His party's dominance in Quebec is not threatened, nor will it be during a campaign.
mkennedy@postmedia.com
Twitter.com/Mark_Kennedy_
© Copyright (c) Postmedia News
Read more: http://www.canada.com/news/Federal+election+could+come/4305134/story.html#ixzz1EHQ9iEmL
