'Warm blob' of water in Pacific Ocean could hurt salmon

[OldBlackDog]

You did ask for a weather projection.
As you noted the Canadian weather office has a bad record. I also gave you the one from Washington as they give reports.

So have you seen the mackerel yet?
They were here in 98.

 

[GLG]

I'll let you have the last word with your copy / pastes as it is clear you have no thoughts on the matter.

 

[OldBlackDog]

I'll let you have the last word with your copy / pastes as it is clear you have no thoughts on the matter.

Since you were one of the ones who showed me all about copy and pastes, you are welcome.

I gather you were not here in 97/98 or you would already know what happened.
History is just repeating itself.
Google it up, you will get all the information you need.
Read the report from Washington state I posted, it tells you all you wanted to know.


Salmon survived last time and will again. Just like man has over the centuries.

 

[OldBlackDog]

[h=1]NOAA Advisory: Persistent El Niño May Impact U.S. Winter Weather[/h]The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released an advisoryyesterday that there is a 90 percent chance or higher that an El Niño will persist throughout the fall of 2015. They are also 85 percent confident it will continue throughout the 2015-2016 winter, influencing the U.S. weather. El Niños form when a "three-month average warming of at least 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9°F) in a specific area of the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean" occurs. Using satellite data, the El Niño event looks like a long, jagged ribbon of warm water spreading across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean (see Figure 1).

Side effects of a long-running El Niño event are "warmer and drier winters in the Northwest, northern Midwest, and upper Northeast United States" and "significantly wetter winters" for drought-stricken central and southern California. Other climate events associated with El Niño years are above-normal tropical cyclones forming east of the dateline, less-then-robust tropical Pacific fishing, and flooding along the coasts of northern Peru and Ecuador.
NOAA predicts that "across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal" during the summer, but will increase into the late fall and winter. NOAA also expects the El Niño will be a factor in a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, and "above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins." Becausethe "warm ocean waters suppress the nutrient-rich, cold water from reaching the surface," which feed and sustain large fish populations, the entire equatorial ecosystem is affected.
El Niños (also known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO) are also accompanied by a high pressure system over the western Pacific and a low-pressure system over the eastern Pacific. NOAA predicts this still-developing El Niño will continue throughout 2015, with some computer models predicting it will persist into the late fall of 2015. NOAA did note in its announcement that the El Niño may turn out to be 'moderate,' weaker then expected, or peter out completely. If the designated area of the Pacific Ocean decreases below the 0.5 degree Celsius threshold, the El Niño is considered to have dissipated.
Currently, this still-developing El Niño shows surface sea temperatures "in excess of 1 degree Celsius, with the largest anomalies in the eastern Pacific." Some recent weekly values showed above-average temperatures in certain areas ranging from 1.4 to 1.9 degrees Celsius. Since 1979, when satellite data became available, research has shown no correlation between global warming and past El Niño events. Consequently, "there is no scientific consensus on how/if climate change may affect ENSO."

According to geologist James Kamis, deep-ocean volcanic vents are the most likely culprits for El Niño events. "These vents emit massive amounts of heat that force warm ocean water to the surface, displacing cooler water in the process," Kamis writes in an email. "This warm water then helps El Niños develop and in the process warm the atmosphere above. The vents also emit enormous volumes of gases such as methane and CO2."


Kamis doesn't think the air above the Pacific Ocean has enough energy to heat such large swaths of ocean by more than the 0.5 degrees Celsius for such a prolonged period. He also thinks these vent gases have a profound impact on our climate that's only now being understood. "The emphasis here is that the ocean is vast and largely unexplored. As such, we are finding more and more vents in the most unlikely of places," Kamis writes in an email. "These vents are very big climate controllers. Not everything can be attributed to the trace gas carbon dioxide."
Source

 

[OldBlackDog]

Because you might have missed this.
Looks like a few people here are wrong again in their assumptions.


According to geologist James Kamis, deep-ocean volcanic vents are the most likely culprits for El Niño events. "These vents emit massive amounts of heat that force warm ocean water to the surface, displacing cooler water in the process," Kamis writes in an email. "This warm water then helps El Niños develop and in the process warm the atmosphere above. The vents also emit enormous volumes of gases such as methane and CO2."

 

[OldBlackDog]

No wonder it gets warm.
http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/explorations/14fire/background/seamounts/media/flythrough.html

 

[GLG]

OBD ... you just can't stop yourself can you.
Seek medical help....
Absolutely stunning how misinformed you are OBD.

 

[OldBlackDog]

Here here is your comment as you seem to have forgotten it.
1999 article.
Science has moved on.
I see you are not able to.
See you still blame everything on global warming. Sad.

OBD help us with the math here
From the 1999 Discovery Magazine article describing the megaplumes.



and then this from the same article





So for a megaplume to be 1,000 miles wide and the temp 100 times warmer you would need an eruption of an undersea volcano or vent in the order of 10s of thousands of times more then what has been documented in the Discovery article. You would think that someone would have noticed something like that. Or, perhaps you could just go with what the thousands of scientists are saying that climate change is real and it's caused by all the CO2 we are dumping into the air. The effect has science and observation backing it and some old guy that has the ability to create a PDF, with a theory called Plate Climatology, that get posted by a climate denial website might not make sense. You be the judge ... crazy bus or science.... pick one.

 

[GLG]

Here here is your comment as you seem to have forgotten it.
1999 article.
Science has moved on.
I see you are not able to.
See you still blame everything on global warming. Sad.

What's wrong OBD has Pope Francis got you down?

 

[OldBlackDog]

Yes actually, he will not accept responsibility on behalf of the church for what they did to the first nations.
Pretty sad.

What's wrong OBD has Pope Francis got you down?

 

[Sangstercraft]

Weather forecasts of even a few days ahead are consistently wrong, yet the weather offices talk with certainty about global warming in 20, 30 and 50 years. The usual explanation is that weather forecasts are different than climate forecasts.
Climate is the average of the weather, so if the weather is wrong the climate is wrong.

Hey bud, the difference is that scientists look at the average of the HISTORICAL weather trends. They don't look at the last few days and then say things are get hotter or cooler in 20 years. And they don't talk about 20 year forecasts with certainty - they give their best guess, which is usually on the conservative side. So if they say it'll rise by 2 degrees, that's their conservative best guess based on all the data.

And no religion is involved here. When was the last time you saw a religious scientist?

I appreciate your steadfastness and determination with your position, however, an open mind is even more impressive. There's nothing wrong with changing your mind in light of evidence.

And guys - no matter what gets discussed here, who's right or wrong, NONE OF IT MATTERS! lol have a beer together sheesh

 

[GLG]

Yes actually, he will not accept responsibility on behalf of the church for what they did to the first nations.
Pretty sad.

No I don't think he is going to talk about that in his encyclical that comes out on Thursday.
I think he is going to lay out the case of what we are doing to the climate from a moral perspective.
Has this got you troubled? Perhaps the 9th commandment has you concerned?

 

[OldBlackDog]

Just like you he is entitled to his opinion.
i am sure he knows lots about the subject, LOL.
We are to trust a man who will not accept responsibilities for what they did. Well you go hard.
Pretty sad .

No I don't think he is going to talk about that in his encyclical that comes out on Thursday.
I think he is going to lay out the case of what we are doing to the climate from a moral perspective.
Has this got you troubled? Perhaps the 9th commandment has you concerned?

 

[OldBlackDog]

So at what point do you think they are wrong?
How many projections have they made that are way off the chart?
See attached.

Hey bud, the difference is that scientists look at the average of the HISTORICAL weather trends. They don't look at the last few days and then say things are get hotter or cooler in 20 years. And they don't talk about 20 year forecasts with certainty - they give their best guess, which is usually on the conservative side. So if they say it'll rise by 2 degrees, that's their conservative best guess based on all the data.

And no religion is involved here. When was the last time you saw a religious scientist?

I appreciate your steadfastness and determination with your position, however, an open mind is even more impressive. There's nothing wrong with changing your mind in light of evidence.

And guys - no matter what gets discussed here, who's right or wrong, NONE OF IT MATTERS! lol have a beer together sheesh

 

[Aces]

Well, our water temps are at 49 F so where's the warm water??

 

[OldBlackDog]

So the the temperature is average?
No mackerel ?

Well, our water temps are at 49 F so where's the warm water??

 

[GLG]

Just like you he is entitled to his opinion.
i am sure he knows lots about the subject, LOL.
We are to trust a man who will not accept responsibilities for what they did. Well you go hard.
Pretty sad .

An encyclical is not a blog post on some website, it's a letter to the 1.2 billion catholic people of the world. It's a guide to the moral argument on how we are treating our fellow man and the environment. Pity you don't understand.

Getting back on topic....

So first you made the case that the BLOB was caused by volcanoes and now I see you trying to make the case that El Niño is now caused by volcanoes in the pacific. So that begs the question.... where are these volcanoes? The link you provided show them off the coast of the US. how could that be when El Niño starts thousands of miles away?

Here is a map and perhaps you could point out where these underwater volcanoes are.

here is a map of the current conditions.... still think your theory holds water?

 

[GLG]

Well, our water temps are at 49 F so where's the warm water??

You can find current conditions here...
(it's warm where I am...64 F at kitty today)
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anal_fields.html

 

[OldBlackDog]

The Catholic Church talking about morals, what a concept.
They have a great history for this.
But you brought this up.

Once again the information I posted came from NOAA.
Are you having a problem with their science?
If so show me the science that refutes it and timely science not 17 years old.

Here is the site for you to read about it.
http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/welcome.html

 

[GLG]

The Catholic Church talking about morals, what a concept.
They have a great history for this.
But you brought this up.

Once again the information I posted came from NOAA.
Are you having a problem with their science?
If so show me the science that refutes it and timely science not 17 years old.

Here is the site for you to read about it.
http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/welcome.html

Well there you go, breaking the 9th commandment again.... LOL

According to geologist James Kamis, deep-ocean volcanic vents are the most likely culprits for El Niño events. "These vents emit massive amounts of heat that force warm ocean water to the surface, displacing cooler water in the process," Kamis writes in an email. "This warm water then helps El Niños develop and in the process warm the atmosphere above. The vents also emit enormous volumes of gases such as methane and CO2."


Kamis doesn't think the air above the Pacific Ocean has enough energy to heat such large swaths of ocean by more than the 0.5 degrees Celsius for such a prolonged period. He also thinks these vent gases have a profound impact on our climate that's only now being understood. "The emphasis here is that the ocean is vast and largely unexplored. As such, we are finding more and more vents in the most unlikely of places," Kamis writes in an email. "These vents are very big climate controllers. Not everything can be attributed to the trace gas carbon dioxide."
Source