Maybe the sky isn't falling afterall
- Thread starter Aces
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Little Hawk
Active Member
A great and very important post Shaun!
"Interestingly these same fluctuations also highlight that salmon stocks have the capacity to rebuild naturally following prolonged periods with low densities, suggesting a strong resilience of salmon to natural and anthropogenic depletion processes."
I've always felt this way about our endangered/extinct runs of salmon. I had a phone conversation with Bill Ottway a few years back and he told me we would likely never see 'the good old days' of Coho productivity in the Strait again. Maybe he and some of the other naysayers out there - were wrong.
Again, great post & good read!
"Interestingly these same fluctuations also highlight that salmon stocks have the capacity to rebuild naturally following prolonged periods with low densities, suggesting a strong resilience of salmon to natural and anthropogenic depletion processes."
I've always felt this way about our endangered/extinct runs of salmon. I had a phone conversation with Bill Ottway a few years back and he told me we would likely never see 'the good old days' of Coho productivity in the Strait again. Maybe he and some of the other naysayers out there - were wrong.
Again, great post & good read!
the oral histories of the first nations had this documented way before this report. entire villages were wiped out due to starvation becasue the salmon didn't return. the 'first salmon' ceremonies derived from these cycles adding mysticism to the mix. unfortunately, and in typical UDub fisheries department fashion, the 'reserchers' skipped right over just how the introduction of improved harvest methodologies combined with the negative impact of ever increasing hatchery smolts are CURRENTLY impacting anadramous fish cycles. all these 'researchers' had to do was talk with village elders to begin with.
tincan
Well-Known Member
A good read but still doesn't seem to provide any answers for how salmon are going to deal with the relatively massive changes in climate and habitat in the past few generations and going forward. It's one thing to say that wild salmon are resilient and go through natural cycles of large/small returns but it's another to predict how they will deal with these new hurdles (global warming, infectious disease via farming, habitat degradation, etc) which are all at their highest levels in centuries. Natural cycles do occur in nature all the time. It's the unnatural ones that we can do something about.
Englishman
Well-Known Member
Right on Tincan!!
It is also presumptive to extrapolate a study that was focussed on the sockeye species only and believe it must apply to all species of salmon. All their scientific data came from lake beds, mostly used by sockeye.
Of course there is no way that any data can be gathered for those species that spawn only in rivers or river systems that have no lakes. This is especially true of the hundreds of small coho streams. All sediment is washed away and does not lie in neat deposits layered over time.
Maybe when the sockeye were reduced over the long cycles they studied, populations of other species in the rivers were higher? So many questions...so few answers.
Meanwhile despite local and cyclic fluctuations the entire salmon population (all species) of the west coast of north america (including oregon and california) is a fraction of what it once was.
The sky IS falling.....albeit slowly and inexorably......keeping salmon populations at even current levels for another 100 years is going to be extremely difficult. Rising human demands for food, oil, power and water are going to guarantee that!!
Whole in the Water
Well-Known Member
You nailed it Roland. Then next 100 years will make it or break it for a lot of species. Time for us to all wake up to this unfolding reality!
cuttlefish
Well-Known Member
X3, Roland & WITW.
searun
Well-Known Member
I think the truth is actually closer to the more science progresses and we think we understand these magnificent fish, the more obvious it becomes that we really do not know squat in reality. To this day, no one can explain why the Fraser Sockeye run 2 years ago was the largest on record. Game on.
SerengetiGuide
Well-Known Member
Well said searun
GLG
Well-Known Member
The leading candidate is this paper
[h=3]Abstract[/h]The effect of a widely distributed phytoplankton bloom triggered by volcanic ash from Alaska (Hamme et al., 2010. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37) on juvenile Fraser River sockeye is discussed in terms of the timing of ocean migration and trophic structure of the Gulf of Alaska. Our hypothesis is that the occurrence of a massive diatom bloom in the Gulf greatly enhanced energy ascendancy in the ocean at a time of year when adolescent sockeye migrated from the coast in 2008. We contend this increase in food availability was an important factor for the survival and growth of juvenile sockeye which led to one of the strongest sockeye returns on record in 2010 of 34 million, compared with perhaps the weakest return on record of 1.7 million the previous year.
http://www.oceanographerschoice.com/2012/06/kasatochis-ash-and-the-fraser-river-sockeye/
It's not proved but it sure makes sense that this addition of iron to the ocean spurned a plankton bloom that feed the fish at just the right time in their life cycle. Another "experiment" was conducted this past summer and we should see results in a couple of years. If it works out and we have another banner year for Fraser sockeye that would add evidence and perhaps a path forward.
tincan
Well-Known Member
I agree. Just as life evolved over billions of years in the past it would most likely do so again given enough time. That said, I'd much rather man just NOT wipe out all life on earth and not bother testing out this hypothesis.
Gunsmith
Well-Known Member
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