Do I need it ... No, but I want it. Rivian Truck
- Thread starter GLG
- Start date
smokedvw
Active Member
Aces
Well-Known Member
It does seem like maybe there are too many manufacturers right now
CBsqrd
Well-Known Member
I'd wait till valuations bottom - i.e. they are trading near "traditional" companies - or they start to improve. Don't try to catch a falling knife.
Or as often attributed to John Maynard Keynes, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
Max123
Well-Known Member
Not exactly a new story. Rivian went public in late 2021 @ $130/share. Within 6 months it was trading at $25/share. For the past 18 months it has been floating along between $25-12/share, but recently hit a low @ $11.05 (today's price). Its a great product, and I would take a Rivian over virtually any other vehicle on offer today - but I wouldn't invest (gamble) my money on their stock.
Who can say how this will all shake out, and no one really knows until BYD (Chinese EV maker - now the largest player in the industry) enters the north american market.
Who can say how this will all shake out, and no one really knows until BYD (Chinese EV maker - now the largest player in the industry) enters the north american market.
Aquaholic
Crew Member
A couple of stories today how the US government is really concerned about Chinese electric vehicles coming into the marketplace with tracking technologies to gather information. I know it sounds a little paranoid at first, but there is some truth to this.
Max123
Well-Known Member
There's undoubtedly some legitimacy to the privacy concern. Its also an undoubtedly true that US automakers are lobbying/looking for absolutely any pretense to keep low cost chinese EVs out of north america based on whatever reason they can find. Its the new 'chicken tax'
Alex_c
Well-Known Member
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want Chinese EVs harvesting my data. But I also don’t want American EVs harvesting my data. Which is a massive down side to purchasing any new vehicle.
I agree that western corps are less concerned about Chinese EVs harvesting data for privacy reasons, than they are about being undercut on the price the user pays to have their data harvested, and not having access to that data.
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Aces
Well-Known Member
It becomes a story for low end investors like me when people like Michael Campbell are writing about it
sly_karma
Crew Member
Do you have some numbers to support that statement? There's so little back history, I find the trends are extremely hard to read.
Max123
Well-Known Member
The main reason for steep depreciation on EVs is because the price of new EVs has dropped significantly over the past few years - which drags down the used market. This is mainly applicable for the Model Y & 3 - Tesla significantly cut prices over the past year.
i'm not seeing any huge discounts on 1-2 year old Rivians
i'm not seeing any huge discounts on 1-2 year old Rivians
Other aspect is repair-ability.. if a vendor wants almost new or more than a new vehicle for a replacement battery pack should need arise. Hopefully this will become less of an issue over time.
Rain City
Crew Member
I think it's already a non issue. Save for the one story about a gouging shop on a first generation obsolete battery that got way too much coverage (for some straaange reason)
Alex_c
Well-Known Member
Not that strange, anything that evokes strong emotional reactions (fear/anger/schadenfreude) drives engagement = ad revenue $$. Nothing like a story of someone getting ripped off to get all the naysayers worked up into a froth.
Rain City
Crew Member
Yep
sly_karma
Crew Member
How does that translate into % values though? Is there a chart or a table somewhere?
wildmanyeah
Crew Member
Every week a new one
Alex_c
Well-Known Member
Is it statistically significant? Let’s go with your claim of one dud a week. ~ 1.3M EVs were sold in North America in 2023.
52/1,300,000 = %0.0041 chance of getting a turd.
Let’s bump up that failure rate by 2 orders of magnitude, so 5200 turds per year. 0.41% failure rate. Still pretty small.
Lemon laws were introduced long before EV’s were a sparkle in our eyes, so it’s not like this is some sort of new thing exclusive to EVs.
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wildmanyeah
Crew Member
Would you buy a used leaf?nits not that it’s broken it’s that no one will fix it
Alex_c
Well-Known Member
I’d fix it myself.
Edit: Just so I’m not coming across as obtuse, I get that self-repair isn’t viable for most. However, it’s a relatively nascent technology, and ultimately these problems should be solved by the free market. If consumers demand better repairability from EV’s, and vote accordingly with their wallet, then manufacturers should be incentivized to supply a product that fills that demand. I’m not against these stories being published, in fact, healthy skepticism of corporate practices is essential to avoiding asymmetry in information and power in free markets. I think they need to be tempered by statistical reality and comparisons to failure rates and reliability of ICE vehicles
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