Here's latest counting fence data. No question we will have more than the target return - so the predictions were slightly off in a positive way. I also observed a lot of jacks this season which are likely being counted as CN adults in the video count, and that will skew numbers in this report. There will be a more accurate count once they start the egg take...so if that is correct then the original DFO prediction may actually be spot on for Adults at 16,000.
This season is a return based on a low number of smolts released, and is the first year of a continuing trend. DFO reduced the smolt output by 2 million. The hatchery water source has reduced flow - they installed smaller intake pipes when the upgrade was completed which effectively limits the smolt production and there is NO way to increase it now. So potential solutions will most likely come from either finding other ways to increase production off site, or to increase the ocean survival.
We think the most practical option is to focus on gains that could be made by shifting release timing to help reduce predation and survival in the first weeks and transition from river to ocean in the estuary. Our local SFAC has been advocating working to improve smolt survival by net penning fish.
The rationale being we know that the Conuma hatchery fish are ocean net penned and have enjoyed a much higher ocean survival. For example, Conuma releases just over 2 million smolts, yet got a slightly larger return of adults. Whereas, Robertson released over 6 million and had far less adults. We experimented with one this year and got permission to hold 10,000 fish to prove we can do it successfully. Normally this would not happen because they need a few seasons of water data to verify if the site selected is safe for fish, so we had a lot of cooperation from DFO to let us experiment.
A few folks commenting that the various commercial fisheries have impacted the number of spawning adults, and while that is correct in that we had several disasters with the greed factor; no effective controls on number of fish commercially retained - that is not the limiting factor here. The reason being we only need around 20,000+ fish to get enough eggs to max out the hatcheries capacity....and, the natural (wild) spawn is thought to be largely ineffective (less than 5% if memory is correct).
We have had some very productive SFAC meetings and a lot of opportunity for input. I think that everyone around the table wants the best for our fishery. Everyone, including DFO has learned a lot from past mistakes and the focus now is on moving forward to figure out how to get more fish coming back rather than getting all caught up in the blame game. I would encourage those who are interested to get involved and attend the SFAC meetings to learn more and have some input.
OBSERVATIONS:
Through September 29, a total of 46,931 adult coho, 3338 coho jacks, 19,661 adult Chinook, 568 Chinook jacks, 88,928 adult sockeye, and 93,512 sockeye jacks are estimated to have passed through the Stamp falls fishway. Through mid-day September 29, a total of 12,705 adult coho, 957 coho jacks, 10 adult Chinook, 121,556 adult sockeye, and 332,402 sockeye jacks are estimated to have passed through the Sproat falls fishway.
Since September 24, daily escapement counts through the Stamp Falls fishway ranged between 116 (on September 29) and 1093 adult Chinook, and 97 (on September 29) and 710 adult coho. Adult sockeye daily escapement since September 24 was negligible (0 or 1) at the Stamp falls fishway and ranged between 2 and 18 at the Sproat fishway.
The discharge rate over the past few days is very high and river temperatures have continued to decrease. Over the past week river temperatures have ranged between 16.8 and 19.5oC at the Sproat fishway (Figure 4). Temperature data from the Stamp Falls fishway is currently unavailable because the HOBO environmental monitoring system is experiencing technical difficulties.
Note: Salmon escapement estimates in this bulletin are preliminary, based on an initial digital video review.