Super sockeye run could whack weak stocks

Derby

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Super sockeye run could whack weak stocks

A gillnetter crew pulls sockeye salmon from their net on the Fraser River near Surrey during the record run of 2010. - Black Press file photo
A gillnetter crew pulls sockeye salmon from their net on the Fraser River near Surrey during the record run of 2010.— image credit: Black Press file phot


by Jeff Nagel - Surrey North Delta Leader

posted Apr 8, 2014 at 9:00 AM


Conservationists are worried a predicted bonanza of sockeye salmon returning to the Fraser River this summer will also bring a frenzy of fishing that could harm weaker stocks.

The mid-range estimate for the Fraser run is 23 million sockeye, but the pre-season forecast shows it could potentially go as high as 72 million.

"People have sockeye fever," said Aaron Hill of the Watershed Watch Salmon Society. "The problem is the huge return is being driven by a few large populations. When we fish those big runs hard there's a lot of collateral damage with smaller runs that get caught as bycatch."

He said weaker runs that could get battered in a year of intense fishing include threatened coho salmon bound for the Thompson River, as well as smaller runs of sockeye that return to Cultus Lake, Pitt Lake, Bowron Lake and Taseko Lake.

The Department of Fisheries and Oceans must manage the fishery to minimize the accidental catch of vulnerable stocks as sport, commercial and aboriginal sectors aim to catch as many sockeye as they're allowed.

Much of the run is expected to spawn in the Adams River system and threatened salmon that arrive in B.C. waters at the same time as the Adams fish will be particularly at risk.

But Hill said DFO is instead proposing a draft salmon management plan for 2014 that could allow "alarming" rollbacks in protection for weak stocks.

One option to enable a larger catch if a huge sockeye run materializes is to boost the proportion of sockeye that can be caught or otherwise die before spawning from 60 per cent in previous years to 65 per cent, according to the DFO document.

"It's going to mean more overfishing in 2014," Hill said. "Across the board we're seeing DFO caving to lobby pressure from the commercial sector and the big charter operations and fishing lodges in the sports sector."

DFO spokesperson Michelle Imbeau said the department is still in the midst of consultations to develop the management plan that will guide fisheries, which will vary depending on how many salmon actually show up.

"No final decisions have been made at this point," she said.

Imbeau said fisheries plans are adjusted during the fishing season depending on the run's actual size and timing, along with other factors, and will be carefully managed to protect specific stocks of concern.

Hill argues strong runs of sockeye could be more safely targeted by fishing in specific tributaries of the Fraser, and by using selective fisheries that can release endangered salmon like Interior coho.

The sockeye now migrating back to B.C. from the north Pacific are the spawn of the massive 2010 run when 30 million unexpectedly returned.

Last year's return of four million sockeye was more typical of recent years, although the numbers have improved since just 1.6 million sockeye returned in 2009, triggering the Cohen Inqury.
 
It's interesting that Salmon were abundant before we began culling in massive numbers. The bigger the fish, the deeper the egg hole, the higher survival rates. Streams are much more robust than we give them credit for.
 
I've said for quite awhile if a bonanza of sockeye do return DFO and the commercial fleet will make quite sure it doesn't happen again in 4 years by overfishing this run. Hope I'm wrong.
 
I've said for quite awhile if a bonanza of sockeye do return DFO and the commercial fleet will make quite sure it doesn't happen again in 4 years by overfishing this run. Hope I'm wrong.

Do you seriously think that commercial fisherman are interested in wiping out a run? If so time to shake your head... Most commercial fishermen have large investments in gear, boats and licences and the last time I looked the way to pay for all that is to catch fish year after year.
 
Do you seriously think if DFO says go ahead commies harvest 20million of the 23 million fish they are going to say wait guys maybe we should just take 10 million? Not a chance.

I know the commercial guys do not want to wipe out a run but they have over and over again if they get the green light from DFO to over harvest then over harvest they will. Same as most sporties will take 8 sox each if allowed only a sport fleet can't purse seine entire schools the commercial boats on the other hand...

It's just my opinion as stated earlier please prove me wrong and leave plenty of fish so its another huge run in 4 years.
 
Exactly, just look at 4-years ago with a record run of 30'ish million late-run sockeye, DFO and the commercial sector were so hard on that run that look what's forecast this year, four years later!!! Oh wait, another massive run. What?!!!!

:)

Ukee
 
The forecast MAY be for a massive run but DFO has been wrong may times. As the old saying goes...don't count your chickens until they hatch
 
Well the "chickens" did hatch and did make it down the river but question is have those "chickens" survived out there in that big bad world out at sea where everything under the sun wants to kill them! lol
 
Well the "chickens" did hatch and did make it down the river but question is have those "chickens" survived out there in that big bad world out at sea where everything under the sun wants to kill them! lol


Well i was referring to returns to the river area. How many times has DFo forecast huge runs that didn't pan out? Lots of times......as well as the opposite
 
Well i was referring to returns to the river area. How many times has DFo forecast huge runs that didn't pan out? Lots of times......as well as the opposite

Yeah sorry got what you meant ...just was being silly about the chicken hatching...... and very true the 2009 fraser return of socs, or lack there of, comes to mind. Anything and everything can happen out there.....
 
Yeah sorry got what you meant ...just was being silly about the chicken hatching...... and very true the 2009 fraser return of socs, or lack there of, comes to mind. Anything and everything can happen out there.....

No worries, i just don't trust DFO and their "ocean survival" forecasting.......clowns!
 
Folks never trust what they don't understand.

As far as being wrong both over and under predicted run sizes - while I can't defend what the politicians and managers do with regard to the openings and harvest rates, as for the fisheries scientists, though, the forecasts are always developed and released as a range of probabilities: from extremely low numbers, which are highly probable to occur, to very high numbers, which are very improbable to occur. To take this year's late-run of Fraser sockeye as an example there is a 90% chance that the run will larger than 7.8 million fish in total, which isn't a particularly big run for that stock on the dominant cycle. There is less than a 10% chance the run will exceed 70 million. Thus, the greatest probability - 80% is that the run falls somewhere in a huge range from 8-60'ish million fish.

Of course the media and most average joe's fixate on the big number and everyone becomes convinced this was the number predicted and anything less is a failure. When DFO tried releasing only the very conservative numbers for a few years - same story, fisheries scientists must be inept cause runs exceeded the numbers. In any case, it isn't like counting your cows in a field and the number of variables that are partially or marginally understood are numerous and you can be sure there are MANY no one has any idea of. The fact that the forecasts fall within the middle of the probability range a statistically significant amount of the time, shows that DFO science continues to do an admirable job of continually improving their predictive models. Again, that's saying nothing about how they manage annual fisheries, harvest rates, openings, allocations, etc, which I think are often indefensible.

Ukee
 
Folks never trust what they don't understand.

As far as being wrong both over and under predicted run sizes - while I can't defend what the politicians and managers do with regard to the openings and harvest rates, as for the fisheries scientists, though, the forecasts are always developed and released as a range of probabilities: from extremely low numbers, which are highly probable to occur, to very high numbers, which are very improbable to occur. To take this year's late-run of Fraser sockeye as an example there is a 90% chance that the run will larger than 7.8 million fish in total, which isn't a particularly big run for that stock on the dominant cycle. There is less than a 10% chance the run will exceed 70 million. Thus, the greatest probability - 80% is that the run falls somewhere in a huge range from 8-60'ish million fish.

Of course the media and most average joe's fixate on the big number and everyone becomes convinced this was the number predicted and anything less is a failure. When DFO tried releasing only the very conservative numbers for a few years - same story, fisheries scientists must be inept cause runs exceeded the numbers. In any case, it isn't like counting your cows in a field and the number of variables that are partially or marginally understood are numerous and you can be sure there are MANY no one has any idea of. The fact that the forecasts fall within the middle of the probability range a statistically significant amount of the time, shows that DFO science continues to do an admirable job of continually improving their predictive models. Again, that's saying nothing about how they manage annual fisheries, harvest rates, openings, allocations, etc, which I think are often indefensible.

Ukee

I agree whole heartedly. Analogous to managing the number of halibut the rec fleet with catch too! :)
 
Folks never trust what they don't understand.

As far as being wrong both over and under predicted run sizes - while I can't defend what the politicians and managers do with regard to the openings and harvest rates, as for the fisheries scientists, though, the forecasts are always developed and released as a range of probabilities: from extremely low numbers, which are highly probable to occur, to very high numbers, which are very improbable to occur. To take this year's late-run of Fraser sockeye as an example there is a 90% chance that the run will larger than 7.8 million fish in total, which isn't a particularly big run for that stock on the dominant cycle. There is less than a 10% chance the run will exceed 70 million. Thus, the greatest probability - 80% is that the run falls somewhere in a huge range from 8-60'ish million fish.

Of course the media and most average joe's fixate on the big number and everyone becomes convinced this was the number predicted and anything less is a failure. When DFO tried releasing only the very conservative numbers for a few years - same story, fisheries scientists must be inept cause runs exceeded the numbers. In any case, it isn't like counting your cows in a field and the number of variables that are partially or marginally understood are numerous and you can be sure there are MANY no one has any idea of. The fact that the forecasts fall within the middle of the probability range a statistically significant amount of the time, shows that DFO science continues to do an admirable job of continually improving their predictive models. Again, that's saying nothing about how they manage annual fisheries, harvest rates, openings, allocations, etc, which I think are often indefensible.

Ukee
UkeeD, True about the 10%/90% probability odds, however ....
if you look at the percentage of prob for return numbers that were predicted for 2010 and compare them to this years % of prob, the prediction is higher numbers this year than it was in 2010 - and last run (4 year cycle) we had 35+ million return .
Considering all else equal then 40-45 million being somewhere in the middle of range of probability this year. With the favorable Ocean conditions, I am optimistic we will surpass 2010's numbers. 72+ million is unlikely and yes only a 10% probability prediction .
 
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." - Quote of Danish origin (apparently).
 
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