Degree of Freedom
Active Member
Not thrilled to hear this...
>
> > As promised, an update on the SFAB South Coast meeting, and particular
> > focus on Chinook.
> >
> > DFO provided a brief update on the forecast for this season. The run was
> > downgraded following further analysis of the 2012 data. We did not get to
> > see the modelling information, but were told the forecast was delayed
> > basically because there was not the DFO staffing resources to complete the
> > data analysis in the usual timeframe (early January). May be an
> > opportunity for us to help by lobbying for more staff resources.
> >
> > Our experience with the DFO Chinook modelling is they are generally fairly
> > close to the actual run in their forecasting. At this point the predicted
> > terminal run is 16,700. Meaning the expected return to the river. As you
> > may recall from prior years, we have always worked to a required run of
> > 20,000 fish to the river to satisfy the hatchery needs for spawners.
> > Closer analysis of the age composition of the returning adults shows there
> > could be enough age 5 females (large egg fecundity) to allow fewer adults
> > returning to the river, and still produce enough fry at the hatchery to
> > meet escapement needs. The hatchery is responsible for 90% of all
> > returning spawners - meaning there is virtually no wild production.
> >
> > So basically we are forecast to have a run under the required escapement,
> > which normally means complete closure. We think with those age 5 females
> > there is a good possibility to advance a position to keep the season open
> > but restricted to only small fish under 77 cm which normally are not
> > spawning females, therefore do not contribute to our hatchery escapement
> > needs.
> >
> > There will be further discussion at the Area 23 Harvest Round Table next
> > week. David and Bob will be attending, and plan to take this position
> > forward. We should have a good idea what position the other parties
> > (Commercial and First Nations) will take following this meeting. So
> > potential at risk for our fishery could be:
> >
> > 1. Complete closure (FN pressing for this)
> > 2. Slot limits both inside Barkley Sound and the Alberni Canal (2 Chinook
> > under 77 cm)
> > 3. Potential for Area 123/124/125 off shore slot limits - however this
> > would trigger impacts to Area G and F Commercial Troll
> > 4. Area and time closures
> >
> > This is the same situation for most WCVI streams, so we can anticipate
> > similar problems in Nootka and other fisheries.
> >
> > The good news is there should be fairly normal returns to the US rivers so
> > the early season (May to early August) off shore should be OK. The only
> > potential impact could be imposition of slot limits to attempt to get more
> > of the WCVI Chinook returning to the rivers. What will be impacted for
> > certain will be the surf line fisheries.
> >
> > Next steps. We are holding a WCFGA membership meeting Wednesday April 24
> > at 7 p.m. at the Kin Hut in Port Alberni. David and Bob will be able to
> > update on how the Area 23 Harvest Round Table meetings progressed. We
> > will need to provide direction to them as to our negotiating position
> > going forward.
> >
> > This is an important opportunity for you to have input, and provide our
> > Executive with direction as to how you want this issue handled.
> >
> > Please ensure you call all your WCFGA friends to encourage them to attend
> > this meeting.
>
> > As promised, an update on the SFAB South Coast meeting, and particular
> > focus on Chinook.
> >
> > DFO provided a brief update on the forecast for this season. The run was
> > downgraded following further analysis of the 2012 data. We did not get to
> > see the modelling information, but were told the forecast was delayed
> > basically because there was not the DFO staffing resources to complete the
> > data analysis in the usual timeframe (early January). May be an
> > opportunity for us to help by lobbying for more staff resources.
> >
> > Our experience with the DFO Chinook modelling is they are generally fairly
> > close to the actual run in their forecasting. At this point the predicted
> > terminal run is 16,700. Meaning the expected return to the river. As you
> > may recall from prior years, we have always worked to a required run of
> > 20,000 fish to the river to satisfy the hatchery needs for spawners.
> > Closer analysis of the age composition of the returning adults shows there
> > could be enough age 5 females (large egg fecundity) to allow fewer adults
> > returning to the river, and still produce enough fry at the hatchery to
> > meet escapement needs. The hatchery is responsible for 90% of all
> > returning spawners - meaning there is virtually no wild production.
> >
> > So basically we are forecast to have a run under the required escapement,
> > which normally means complete closure. We think with those age 5 females
> > there is a good possibility to advance a position to keep the season open
> > but restricted to only small fish under 77 cm which normally are not
> > spawning females, therefore do not contribute to our hatchery escapement
> > needs.
> >
> > There will be further discussion at the Area 23 Harvest Round Table next
> > week. David and Bob will be attending, and plan to take this position
> > forward. We should have a good idea what position the other parties
> > (Commercial and First Nations) will take following this meeting. So
> > potential at risk for our fishery could be:
> >
> > 1. Complete closure (FN pressing for this)
> > 2. Slot limits both inside Barkley Sound and the Alberni Canal (2 Chinook
> > under 77 cm)
> > 3. Potential for Area 123/124/125 off shore slot limits - however this
> > would trigger impacts to Area G and F Commercial Troll
> > 4. Area and time closures
> >
> > This is the same situation for most WCVI streams, so we can anticipate
> > similar problems in Nootka and other fisheries.
> >
> > The good news is there should be fairly normal returns to the US rivers so
> > the early season (May to early August) off shore should be OK. The only
> > potential impact could be imposition of slot limits to attempt to get more
> > of the WCVI Chinook returning to the rivers. What will be impacted for
> > certain will be the surf line fisheries.
> >
> > Next steps. We are holding a WCFGA membership meeting Wednesday April 24
> > at 7 p.m. at the Kin Hut in Port Alberni. David and Bob will be able to
> > update on how the Area 23 Harvest Round Table meetings progressed. We
> > will need to provide direction to them as to our negotiating position
> > going forward.
> >
> > This is an important opportunity for you to have input, and provide our
> > Executive with direction as to how you want this issue handled.
> >
> > Please ensure you call all your WCFGA friends to encourage them to attend
> > this meeting.
