Kinder Morgan IPO and $25/barrel oil (MSNBC)

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Personally I'm extremely skeptical about the role of electric cars. The odds of being able to produce them on the scale necessary to offset conventional auto emissions seem remote to me; on top of that there are a lot of questions relating to energy supply to recharge an actual fleet of energy vehicles similar in size to the existing fleet of gas vehicles.

Fossil fuels have value because of their extreme energy density; they're basically the most dense storage medium for solar energy we've found. That's going to be tough to replace and the demand is going to increase radically as the Chinese and Indian middle classes develop. Maybe a nuclear grid might power electric cars; but then the mining and manufacturing operations necessary to support a global supply chain of batteries for those cars might be an environmental nightmare in its own right.

At present, market cap per vehicle produced by Tesla is around 600,000 USD. Compare that to Ford or GM which are in the $10,000/vehicle range...if Tesla didn't get a steady supply of investment dollars from government and private sources, they'd be broke in a matter of weeks. Very risky and someone's going to get left holding the bag there.

Not particularly a fan of the fossil fuel game myself as I am a believer in the climate change models, and we can't replace any fossil fuels we burn so every drop is a drop we won't get back, but I also believe that there are a lot of pie-in-the-sky theories about how we can just switch to alternative energy, and how if we just invested in that "as a society" we'd get great results.

Well, societies don't invest. Individuals invest capital in ideas, typically when they look like money-makers. If private firms aren't pouring money into alternative energy options, that's because whatever upsides they may have, they aren't as efficient as fossil fuel options. That's not to say we won't be forced ultimately to use less efficient energy storage media, to store energy harvested now and not just burn a 60 million year old pre-enriched reserve...but it will cost more, and we'll get less out. It might still be worth doing, but that's the reality.

Sadly...whatever Canada does in terms of restricting our usage has basically no effect on the global climate, and may have negative consequences for us.

The Earth is, in a lot of ways, like a giant shared home, and we have a large room with a candle in it. On the other side of the house, there's another large room with 10 Chinese students, burning lanterns and heaters and stoves. We can definitely switch to a smaller candle, but then the question is: how does this affect our relative ability to control the household decision-making? If the 10 Chinese students burn fuel like crazy in an effort to expand their knowledge of household systems, are we hamstringing ourselves by trying to cut the household fuel bill by a fraction?

I'm not arguing that we shouldn't do it...but remember that if, as David Suzuki once said, we're all on a bus together that's going to drive off a cliff if nobody does anything, it might be best if we all stuck our feet out and tried to slow it down. That was his solution, anyway.

I'm more the type to strategize on how to win the fight for the driver's seat so that we can stop the bus without everyone's legs getting broken, myself...but hey, I don't get government money. My solutions actually have to be efficient. I wouldn't discourage anyone who wants to stick their limbs out of a speeding bus, of course - I'm a big believer in individual freedoms.

Not super fired up on people who insist that the only solution is for ME to stick my limbs out of a speeding bus, however.
 
I don't know about electric cars but by coincidence, there were two excellent radio articles on the CBC this morning. One dealing with electric cars and one talking about Kinder Morgans pipeline.
Pretty interesting. And surprising. California, Arizona and Pennsylvania all are testing pilotless electric vehicle programs right now. Head of Auto industry in USA says they are coming. Apparently fleets of them for muniCipal use first while they work out the bugs. Then commuter and finally the commercial application. The technology is already available but the Problems as of now are mostly regulatory. What laws ect. The most serious issue (according to the expert) is what will happen to all the jobs both in manufacturing and spin offs like auto parts. This right from head of the auto industries mouth. Anyways very interesting and worth searching the web for and listening to.

The Kinder Morgan article was equally interesting. Views from both sides and of course there was a lot of we need it/we don't. It was also worth researching. Some very valid points from both sides. Main gist of the program was the question of Trudeau and Notley and their insistence on relying on "old out of date stats" on who, where and when of oil industry. Canada's whoafully far behind just about every industrialized country when it comes to the realization where the industries headed. Search it and listen to it. Very informative.

Excellent well written post above mine and I'll never own an electric vehicle as I drive too far and pull heavy loads but I had to laugh cuz for some reason
The first thing that flashed through my head was.... a bunch of smoked out cow pokes sitting around a card table in a saloon. The conversation going something like:

Don't you worry none Clem. Them there Modelt Ts will never catch on. Theres just too many folks already drivin horses and buggies.
 
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Well, if their discussion had been about steam powered cars, which were another early motor vehicle technology, they'd have been right.

Survivor bias is an effect which causes people to look back in history and see the successful attempts at various feats, because the unsuccessful attempts die off. But for every technology that succeeds and becomes a world standard, many are brief and unsuccessful forays into the field and twenty years later, everyone has forgotten about them.

Maybe the electric car is the new Model T.

Maybe it's a Stanley Steamer - remember them? No? They built steam powered cars until the mid-20s.

"Don't you worry none Clem. Them there Stanley Steamers will never catch on. Theres just too many folks already drivin Model Ts."

Clem's friend would have been absolutely correct and if Clem was invested in Ford Motor Co back in the Model T days, not only did he get rich, he probably got so rich his grandkids are still rich. People who invested in Stanley Motor Car Company got nothing and the technology was a flash in the pan.
 
Well if electric cars really do ever takeoff I guess ditching site C will have been a mistake?
 
Klob said:
I don't as much of a problem with the pipeline as I do on tripling tanker traffic in Burrard inlet and Vancouver harbour.
Click to expand...
I heard one Tanker per week? Compared to all the Deep Sea traffic in the area ,all of which have large stocks of fuel onboard, it doesn't seem quite so alarming.Certainly if taken as a percentage of Tanker Traffic in Juan de Fuca and Haro Strait it isn't much of an increase at all.
Any fuel spill is one too many but using misleading statements/statistics, which the opponents and supporters seem to always do, fuels cynicism IMO. I guess that doesn't get the media attention though.
 
75% of B.C. drivers interested in going electric: poll
https://www.bchydro.com/news/conservation/2016/interest-in-electric-cars.html

There's lots of buzz, and a shortage of basic knowledge, about EVs
British Columbia is a great place to own an electric vehicle (EV). And a new poll conducted by BC Hydro indicates that drivers in the province generally agree.

In the month of April, members of BC Hydro's Team Power Smart were asked if they would consider buying a plug-in electric vehicle in the next five years. Fully 75% of respondents indicated they'd either "absolutely" consider buying one (32%) or would "maybe" consider it (43%).

While the numbers aren't scientific, they do suggest that interest in electric vehicles is increasing. A lot of that probably has to do with the buzz around Tesla's Model S and the recently unveiled Model 3, but even drivers of less sexy plug-in vehicles are spreading the word about the benefits of going electric. At the same time, research conducted at SFU [PDF, 3.4 MB] indicates that while interest in so-called "EVs" is high, people have lots of questions about what it's like to own them.

In particular, people want to know what types of plug-in vehicles are available, how difficult it is to charge them, and how far they can travel. Here are a few of the basics.

See also: What it's like to drive an electrical vehicle in B.C.

Types of electric vehicles available today
There are three different types of electric vehicles available in B.C.:

  • Hybrid: A hybrid vehicle runs using both gasoline and electricity, but you only have to put gasoline into it. You don't plug in.
  • Plug-in hybrid: These hybrids also run using both gasoline and electricity, but you need to "fill them" with both gasoline and electricity.
  • Battery electric: With only rechargeable batteries on board, these vehicles need to be charged via a plug-in source of electricity.
How to choose between a hybrid or a full-on electric
If you're interested in an electric vehicle, then choosing the right type depends on four factors: the range of the vehicle, the geography in which you live, your personal philosophy, and your budget.

The most often asked question about electrics is always, "How far can they travel before you need to charge them up?" The truth is, it varies. It depends on the size of the battery in the vehicle.

Tesla's Model S has the farthest range. The 90D version of the Model S can travel up to 473 km. On the lower end of the scale is the Ford Fusion Energi, which has an electric-only range of 32 km.

The most popular battery electric in B.C., the Nissan Leaf, gets between 135 and 172 km (depending on the specific model).

But how far do you need to travel? For those living in the Lower Mainland, the distance from home to work is usually less than 50 km. And where you live also factors in. Plug-In Richmond's John Roston thinks his city is ideal for EVs because the weather is rarely below freezing and the terrain is flat. "Everything is in your favour," he said.

If you're living in Fort St. John and spend a few months of the year watching kids play hockey on outdoor rinks, though, an electric vehicle probably isn't a good option for you. Cold temperatures reduce the capacity of today's batteries.

There are also different motivations for buying an EV. Is it because it can be so much cheaper to operate while also reducing your personal contribution to carbon emissions? Fred Wissemann, the president of the Victoria EV Club, prefers battery electrics because, as he said, "zero emission is the only solution for our planet".

Finally, there's the matter of budget. While electric vehicle fans will argue that drastically reduced fuel and maintenance costs (no oil changes, far longer brake life) add up to long-term savings, electric vehicles are still more expensive to purchase than most comparably-sized gas-fuelled vehicles. And in an age when SUVs are popular, the only options for full-electric SUVs are out of the price range of most car buyers.

But the gap in price is shrinking, and some predict the lower-priced, long-range-capable Tesla Model 3 and Chevy Bolt will lead to a dramatic increase in electric vehicle sales in the years following their release.

More charging stations planned
Finding a place to charge an electric vehicle is another consideration. The existing infrastructure for fueling internal combustion engines has been developed over 100 years, and while there may not be a gas station on every corner anymore, they are virtually everywhere.

BC Hydro's Alec Tsang said the focus in B.C. is on getting enogh public fast charging stations installed to lead the market, but not get ahead of it. "If electric vehicles are tethered to the home, they will remain a niche market," he says.

DC fast charge stations can get a typical electric vehicle battery up to 80% in about 20 minutes. The 26th new station was just opened at Empire Fields in Vancouver, said Tsang, and another four will be added by the end of June. "That's only the first wave," he said, adding that stations will also be installed throughout the Fraser valley.

A partnership with BMW will see 10 existing public charging stations upgraded so they can be used by people driving electric vehicles with a different standard of plug.

A priority for charging stations, said Tsang, is condos and apartment buildings, as over 60% of residents in metro Vancouver live in places with shared parking spaces. A City of Vancouver bylaw requires that any new residential dwelling be constructed with EV charging infrastructure, but there are hundreds of buildings that would need to be retrofitted.

That's why the province is putting $1 million into the installation of charging stations in these multi-user dwellings.
 
I've seriously considered going full electric but have serious concerns still regarding range.I think it would be great if you live in a city, travel short distances and have charging facilities at both ends of any extended route. If however you have a lengthy commute or wish to make even a short road trip, you're kind of hooped

To me a plug in Hybrid seems the most practical solution, but there is still a significant price gap between it and conventional internal combustion power. I also am concerned about battery life ( a friends lasted about six years) and recycling of the battery, not to mention the substantial cost of replacement.There is also the big question "where does the power in the charging stations come from and how's it generated"?. We can't keep blocking hydro or even nuclear generation if we are serious. Solar isn't the answer now, maybe never will be! Same for wind!

I can see battery electric vehicles eventually becoming the norm for city dwellers. I think there is a long road ahead before they supplant transport trucks, work vehicles etc. It may eventually happen though, especially if they ever find a practical,cheap and reliable source of non polluting electricity! We ain't there yet though.
 
Should I get some popcorn?
 
Ziggy go for a test drive with the new Chevy Bolt EV. It gets 383+ km per charge. That's a lot of range and it can be charge at home when you are sleeping. At that time BC has more electricity than we know what to do with and water gets spilled from our dams without making power. When you factor the cost of power you get the equivalent of 20 cents a liter for your "fuel". It still can't compete with our cheap gas but at some point, when the price of batteries comes down it will become cheaper. Tesla model 3 and a new Nissan Leaf are also coming this summer with very similar range and price point.

On a side note I went for a spin in a Tesla model S and that was the quickest car I have ever seen. There high end model will do the 1/4 mile in the 10 second range.
 
And while I was there checking out the EV's I read this article. Pretty informative. Seems to me it wouldn't take very long to offset the cost of an electric vehicle if you didn't have to buy gas.

Gas vehicle vs. electric vehicle: Vancouver to Calgary road trip
tesla-attached-to-charger-full-width-transportation.jpg

Darryl Gates took his Tesla electric vehicle all the way to Calgary, his first long-distance trip without filling up the gas tank.
Charging stations make cross-country travel possible for skeptics like Darryl Gates
Posted by Blaine Kyllo

Traveling the Trans-Canada Highway, it's some 1,000 kilometres between Vancouver and Calgary. The route crosses the farm land of the Fraser Valley, the jagged Rocky Mountains, and the rolling foothills of western Alberta. Opting for the speedier Coquihalla bypass or the scenery of the Okanagan orchards only adds to the experience.

I've made the drive between the two cities more times than I can count, and every time I've made the trip in a gas-powered vehicle. My most recent expedition was this July with my family in our Honda Pilot. Depending on the size of the tank and the particular efficiency of the car you're driving, you can make the trip only needing to stop once or twice to fill up the tank.

If you're Darryl Gates, you don't need to stop at a gas station at all.

Introducing the electric vehicle
Gates drives a Tesla Model S. It's his first new car.

"I've always really hated cars," Gates told me during an interview earlier this year. "They are dirty and they burn gasoline and they tend to break down and take a lot of maintenance. An internal combustion engine is a horrendously complex hack of a solution to provide propulsion to a vehicle."

For Gates, cars were simply tools for transportation. He'd buy cheap, used cars and drive them until they broke and then he'd buy another cheap, used car.

"And then I saw this car on a trip to Bellevue, Washington," he said, referring to the Model S. He went into the Tesla dealership and spent hours talking about Tesla vehicles. "I couldn't get it out of my head," he said. Six months later, his black Model S was ready for delivery.

How to travel to Calgary
When Gates was asked to be best man at a wedding in Banff, Alberta, his first thought was to simply fly to Calgary, rent a car to go to the wedding, then fly home. He'd done the drive between the west coast and Alberta before, and it wasn't something he'd been interested in repeating.

Then he became the owner of a Model S. "Many people think an electric vehicle limits your ability to go on a road trip," he says, "but in our case it was the reason we took one."

Gates and his family were at the wedding, of course, but they also visited a number of communities in B.C., and took the opportunity to explore dinosaurs in Southern Alberta.

Gas versus electric
On the way to Calgary from Vancouver, Gates stopped to charge his Tesla five times: Hope, Chase, Sicamous, Golden, and Canmore. Total cost: zero dollars.

By comparison, my family stopped to gas up twice, in Merritt and Revelstoke, at a cost of over $125.

It's true that the Gates family had to find ways to occupy themselves when the Tesla was charging, because it can take longer to fill a battery bank with electricity than a tank with gas. At Hope they had a meal and played soccer in the park for a while. A fruit stand in Chase that was equipped with two charging stations provided an opportunity for an ice cream treat. And the Sicamous stop was for the night.

My family stopped, too. For breakfast in Merritt, where we also filled up, and at Revelstoke, where we camped for the night just north of the Revelstoke Dam.

Gates may have stopped a couple of extra times for a couple of extra hours in total, but he saved more than $100 on the trip to Calgary by driving an electric vehicle. It's simply a matter of planning ahead, and making the most of the charging time. On the route back to Vancouver, Gates and his family enjoyed a swim in a community pool while the Model S charged up in Golden. Can you think of a better way to spend a hot summer afternoon?

Planning the road trip route ahead of time; PlugShare helps
Like any road trip, Gates planned his route ahead of time. Using PlugShare made it easy for him to see where there were charging stations. PlugShare shows stations on a map and is even able to let you know which stations are in use.

In some places there are few options. When in Alberta, Gates and his family visited the Tyrell Musem and Dinosaur Provincial Park, and there is only one charging station between the eastern outskirts of Calgary and Medicine Hat, about 300 km away. It's at the Ramada Hotel in Brooks, which is where Gates decided to stay for the night. "We phoned ahead to make sure there really was a charging station," he said on the phone. "They were quite excited to have somebody come use the charger."

More high power stations planned for the Vancouver-Calgary route
Not all charging stations are the same, and in taking an alternate route for the return trip to Vancouver, Gates was surprised to learn that the fastest charger he came across was in Princeton, B.C. It wasn't normally a place he would have stopped, and he was charmed by the small, mountain town. "We got to see stuff we'd never seen before," he said.

High power charging stations would have really cut down on the amount of time Gates and his family had to wait to charge their Tesla. The automobile manufacturer just opened a SuperCharger station in Squamish, at the Garibaldi Village Shopping Centre, and expects to have the entire route to Calgary covered with SuperCharger stations by the end of the year. When that happens, says Gates, it'll be possible to do the drive in one day, because the Tesla charging stations can get the cars to 80 per cent of capacity in about 30 minutes.

Gates said he used to prefer flying when he needed to travel to Calgary. Now that he's done the trip in his Tesla Model S, he's not sure about that anymore.

Blaine Kyllo is a Vancouver-based writer and frequent contributor to bchydro.com.
 
Here is a review on the Blot EV done here in BC.
 
Electrics and hybrids combined currently make up something close to 0.15% of the global passenger vehicle market.

They may be a solution, or a part of a solution, but at this point it's really difficult to say what it would look like if production had to be increased by ten thousand percent. What would the mining and manufacturing industry changes be that would be required in order to support that? What would be the cost of those changes, not just fiscally but environmentally? We don't really know.

And we're just barely at a point where the first major generation of batteries needs to be replaced. So at this point it's mostly been hype and good news...but the reality is that we just don't really have a good picture of whether they're going to work as a large-scale transportation solution.

I'm not opposed to anyone pursuing the technology, but I think there's a lot of optimism about electric cars which exists solely because there are so few of them, we haven't really seen the downsides yet.
 
cracked_ribs said:
Electrics and hybrids combined currently make up something close to 0.15% of the global passenger vehicle market.

They may be a solution, or a part of a solution, but at this point it's really difficult to say what it would look like if production had to be increased by ten thousand percent. What would the mining and manufacturing industry changes be that would be required in order to support that? What would be the cost of those changes, not just fiscally but environmentally? We don't really know.

And we're just barely at a point where the first major generation of batteries needs to be replaced. So at this point it's mostly been hype and good news...but the reality is that we just don't really have a good picture of whether they're going to work as a large-scale transportation solution.

I'm not opposed to anyone pursuing the technology, but I think there's a lot of optimism about electric cars which exists solely because there are so few of them, we haven't really seen the downsides yet.
Click to expand...

Globally I think we are closer to 1% at this point. I'll look for a source for that. Here is something that if you're interested in this subject you may want to read.

Executive summary
Tearing down the world's first mass-market electric car
We are more convinced than ever that electric cars are about to reach the tipping point in the penetration curve in the next few years. This new generation of electric cars has far-reaching implications for the global autos industry, but also for many other sectors, such as capital goods, chemicals, mining, technology, and energy. The only way to better understand these implications was to tear down the first vehicle of its kind, piece by piece. So, that is what we did. We tore down the Chevrolet Bolt, which we consider the world's first real mass-segment electric vehicle (EV). The Bolt combines a $37k price tag ($30k including US government subsidies) with an EPA-estimated range of 238 miles on a single charge, which surpasses competitors by at least 30% in this price segment. Moreover, the Bolt has a price tag and range similar to the upcoming Tesla Model 3, which is Tesla's long-awaited entry into the mass market

https://neo.ubs.com/shared/d1ZTxnvF2k/
 
cracked_ribs said:
Personally I'm extremely skeptical about the role of electric cars. The odds of being able to produce them on the scale necessary to offset conventional auto emissions seem remote to me; on top of that there are a lot of questions relating to energy supply to recharge an actual fleet of energy vehicles similar in size to the existing fleet of gas vehicles.

Fossil fuels have value because of their extreme energy density; they're basically the most dense storage medium for solar energy we've found. That's going to be tough to replace and the demand is going to increase radically as the Chinese and Indian middle classes develop. Maybe a nuclear grid might power electric cars; but then the mining and manufacturing operations necessary to support a global supply chain of batteries for those cars might be an environmental nightmare in its own right.

At present, market cap per vehicle produced by Tesla is around 600,000 USD. Compare that to Ford or GM which are in the $10,000/vehicle range...if Tesla didn't get a steady supply of investment dollars from government and private sources, they'd be broke in a matter of weeks. Very risky and someone's going to get left holding the bag there.

Not particularly a fan of the fossil fuel game myself as I am a believer in the climate change models, and we can't replace any fossil fuels we burn so every drop is a drop we won't get back, but I also believe that there are a lot of pie-in-the-sky theories about how we can just switch to alternative energy, and how if we just invested in that "as a society" we'd get great results.

Well, societies don't invest. Individuals invest capital in ideas, typically when they look like money-makers. If private firms aren't pouring money into alternative energy options, that's because whatever upsides they may have, they aren't as efficient as fossil fuel options. That's not to say we won't be forced ultimately to use less efficient energy storage media, to store energy harvested now and not just burn a 60 million year old pre-enriched reserve...but it will cost more, and we'll get less out. It might still be worth doing, but that's the reality.

Sadly...whatever Canada does in terms of restricting our usage has basically no effect on the global climate, and may have negative consequences for us.

The Earth is, in a lot of ways, like a giant shared home, and we have a large room with a candle in it. On the other side of the house, there's another large room with 10 Chinese students, burning lanterns and heaters and stoves. We can definitely switch to a smaller candle, but then the question is: how does this affect our relative ability to control the household decision-making? If the 10 Chinese students burn fuel like crazy in an effort to expand their knowledge of household systems, are we hamstringing ourselves by trying to cut the household fuel bill by a fraction?

I'm not arguing that we shouldn't do it...but remember that if, as David Suzuki once said, we're all on a bus together that's going to drive off a cliff if nobody does anything, it might be best if we all stuck our feet out and tried to slow it down. That was his solution, anyway.

I'm more the type to strategize on how to win the fight for the driver's seat so that we can stop the bus without everyone's legs getting broken, myself...but hey, I don't get government money. My solutions actually have to be efficient. I wouldn't discourage anyone who wants to stick their limbs out of a speeding bus, of course - I'm a big believer in individual freedoms.

Not super fired up on people who insist that the only solution is for ME to stick my limbs out of a speeding bus, however.
Click to expand...

You nailed it. Your a very intelligent man.

The price of oil rising produced a MASSIVE increase in expenditure researching new ways to produce energy, social pressure on capital to do that had a large impact too.

Don't rush these things, renewable energy will have its day and is the direction we should be going, but that time just isn't right now. Let it happen naturally, not by government decree.
 
I would love to go to a Tesla. Those things are brutes!

It's purely for performance for me and a slight feel I'm doing the "Green" deal.

I know enough about battery manufacturing to know it ain't green at all. Who knows though in the future.

Hell if we ever harness nuclear fission and make it happen on a small scale, Cracked Ribs will be totally on the mark. Electric cars will be persecuted the same as gas powered cars are now.

Chill out green boys. We are doing just fine.
 
Bwaahahahaha. Let it happen naturally. Good one. That is the single most funny thing I've heard this week.
 
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4052517-global-ev-sales-interesting-start-2017
Regardless of whether one is looking at it from an automaker business point of view, looking at market sales trends, or whether like me, people are more interested in what potential impact a potential shift to EVs may have on demand for certain commodities, EVs made up about 1% of total car sales last year, so we need to start paying attention.
 
GLG said:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4052517-global-ev-sales-interesting-start-2017
Regardless of whether one is looking at it from an automaker business point of view, looking at market sales trends, or whether like me, people are more interested in what potential impact a potential shift to EVs may have on demand for certain commodities, EVs made up about 1% of total car sales last year, so we need to start paying attention.
Click to expand...

Everyone is already paying attention. Tesla produces a first class product and is supplying to a consumer. Pure capitalism at its finest.

They will be rewarded for their investment in due course. Maybe not until the range and service ability has been upgraded, but in time it will happen as long as they stay in front of the curve.
 
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