Is it true were are over in quota and could be penalized next year for it?
Years of being under and they will penalize us for being over crazy.
Sort of, but not exactly...how's that for a politically vague answer. We now have an overage provision because the SFAB sought and was granted this as a tool. How it works is we can apply any overage from the current season to be deducted from the following season's TAC. Deducted off the top, once the following season's TAC is known.
So, the SFAB Halibut Committee meets regularly throughout the season to review the catch estimate data. After considering the data, reviewing areas where corrections to the data can be investigated, the Committee considers risk factors and forecasting for how the remaining season will unfold and then makes a decision on rolling the dice so to speak on using the overage provision.
We did that exactly this season as it appeared from the early data we only had 44,000 pounds remaining at the end of August. The SFAB decided to take a risk we may require using the overage provision to allow opportunity to continue fishing through September, while investigating potential data errors. After reviewing data, and investigating potential errors the updated analysis determined there was actually more TAC available or un-used. It now appears we are likely on track to finish the season with a small underage.
Consideration for risk of using the overage provision is not taken lightly. As you can imagine there are considerable negative consequences. It's never an easy decision with a lot riding on how it would impact the following season.
Every single pound of TAC matters, so as Bod says guides need to record every halibut in their guide log books and make sure they don't just round up the cm measurement. Heard some guys just putting down the small fish as 90 and calling her good...when the fish actually measured out as less. Every cm is an exponential increase in weight, so getting it accurate is key. This is especially so now - everyone knows we are in a declining trend in Halibut abundance. Next season will be no different, as we anticipate further decline. What does that mean for our TAC...venturing a guess it would be a home run if we had status quo, but more probable a decrease is coming for 2020.
The IPHC is a week later this year, normally last week of Jan, but it is first week of Feb. So don't count on a Feb opening because we won't know what our TAC is until February 7, then the SFAB needs to meet after that to take a stab at determining what regulations choice gets us a full season.
