Forecast not looking good for B.C.'s salmon stocks

[SerengetiGuide]

Another thing to note is it seems it all depends who you ask how the returns are going to be...last fall was reading (forget where, will attempt to find link as it was on the internet) that 2010 returns were expected to be much better than 2009...and some of best in years.

As for Alberni fishing, obviously it was pretty bad there after the commercial opening, and not great before even. But it is impossible to expect every run to have good returns every year in my opinion...still a shame...don't get me wrong...but I think you get what I'm attempting to say...I don't think any one year everyone will ever be happy with returns of salmon.

www.serengetifishingcharters.com

*NEW VIDEO*
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlEzuNC59ck

 

[scott craven]

June/July 2009 was the easily the best we have seen in the last 10
on the southcoast for Chinook.
Yes, they were predominantly hatchery fish , with the odd unclipped.
I am optimistic that after several poor years that we may continue to see improvement in the future.

 

[gamechanger]

Poppaswiss, as you know the chinook fishing sucked in Alberni last August, you don't need to remind me. It sucked other places too, but as I recall there were lots of highlites as well...Does that ****ty fishery in Alberni make me think fishing is going down the tubes? No, fishing changes every year, ask the guys in Nanaimo who were whacking 20-30lbers in April and May on a regular basis last year...the first time in over a decade, was that not a good thing? Ask the guys in the Broughton who had their rivers choked with one of the best pink returns since DFO started keeping track, did that suck? Ask the guys who fished offshore WCVI last summer if it sucked or not, I can personally say that it was pretty unbelievable, and I bet many of the guys on here will say the same, there were lot's of fish and lot's of big fish. We had a trip in August last year where in 2 days of fishing offshore we whacked 24 springs between 21-36 pounds. Every fish was big out there, which is not the norm.

Yeah fishing will never be as good as it used to be on a whole, that's what happens when you continue to populate the coast with logging operations, recreational and commercial fishing, housing devlopments, agriculture, river pollution, global warming, the list goes on and on...I think we're lucky that we still have the fishing that we do. I've fished in a lot of places in Canada, some in the US and in Mexico too, and I think we are still blessed up here. Focusing on the negative all of the time will just make you a pessimist.

Do something positive for the resource (I'm not saying you don't because I don't know your background) but there's nothing worse than people who ***** about ****ty this/****ty that, but don't help out, no offense directed at you. I donate thousands of dollars every year to the PSF and contribute a fair amount of my time to help out on fisheries projects that are in some way beneficial. I get paid for some of it, but not all of it, and if more people did the same the future would be a brighter place for our fish stocks and our kids.

PS, my prediction for this year is that salmon fishing on the WCVI will be awesome. Coho and chinook.

-millsy

 

[TheBigGuy]

I don't know who Kennedy Wame is, but this quote from him pretty much sums this topic up.

"A curious thing happens when fish stocks decline: People who aren't aware of the old levels accept the new ones as normal. Over generations, societies adjust their expectations downward to match prevailing conditions."

Kennedy Wame

 

[fishin_magician]

quote:Originally posted by TheBigGuy

I don't know who Kennedy Wame is, but this quote from him pretty much sums this topic up.

"A curious thing happens when fish stocks decline: People who aren't aware of the old levels accept the new ones as normal. Over generations, societies adjust their expectations downward to match prevailing conditions."

Kennedy Wame

Bravo BigGuy...BRAVO! What you just quoted/said couldn't be more true.

One "off" years last last aren't a sign of the times, they're merely anomalies contradicting the cold hard truth.

No amount of money to any organizations like PSF or any enhancement activities etc etc is going to fix the systemic problems which have resulted in this mess. These activities are merely wads of gum plugging one hole of the many holes in the already leaking rusty bucket which will inevitably have the bottom fall out.

[}]

 

[gamechanger]

I don't disagree with either of you, but what are you guys going to do about it then...have you stopped killing fish? You're either part of the problem or part of the solution.

 

[Brisco]

quote:Originally posted by TheBigGuy

I don't know who Kennedy Wame is, but this quote from him pretty much sums this topic up.

"A curious thing happens when fish stocks decline: People who aren't aware of the old levels accept the new ones as normal. Over generations, societies adjust their expectations downward to match prevailing conditions."

Kennedy Wame

SerengetiGuide,

This pretty much says what I meant earlier.My hats off to you for the positive outlook and contibution to the sport.

 

[TheBigGuy]

quote:Originally posted by millsy

I don't disagree with either of you, but what are you guys going to do about it then...have you stopped killing fish? You're either part of the problem or part of the solution.

Actually Millsy, for the most part I have stopped killing Salmon. I mostly practice catch and release on Salmon. I still keep a few, that are bleeders or don't revive well. Most of the fish I keep for the freezer are usually bottom fish, and I still selectively harvest those (if possible).

If you have noticed in many of my posts on this forum I promote catch and release. Most of the responses aren't that favorable on the catch and release topic. That is a huge part of the problem, attitudes on the coast have to change. The fill the freezer with Salmon mentality (sport & commercial)is a huge part of the reason for the Salmons decline.

I now severely limit my take of most species of fish, especially the large specimens required for reproduction. It was tough teaching my small kids to learn why this is important. Now that they are older they understand the importance of preserving our fishing heritage. To me helping to change attitudes is as important as helping to increase fish stocks. They both go hand in hand.

 

[gamechanger]

I totally agree Big Guy, and we at Mills Landing are getting more and more of our groups and charter guests believing that, and coming more for the experience than just for the meat. Obviously catching fish is a big part of the experience, but it's not the only part, and there's a lot more to our trips than just that. I try not to kill huge hali's, or limit guys out for everything possible as much as possible, and I try to educate people that what we have is special and worth saving everytime I'm out on the water. We get guys who pay big bucks to go out in Barkley simply to catch a salmon and then go to a beach and cedar plank it on a fire, and they love it. Minimal impact, maximum value stuff is the way to go. We're lucky to still have a great resource to enjoy, let's try to keep it that way. Meat fishing is a dodo mentality.

 

[TheBigGuy]

Way to go Millsy. Good to hear from a guide with a progressive attitude. "Filling the tub" might make the clients happy in the short term, but it won't work for long.

Glad to hear you are so responsible with the guests that stay with you. Good on you.

 

[Gooey Bob]

Yawn...same old crap. Here's another "media report" (pulled from a freshwater thread) that illustrates that from the opinion of this reporter, predictions are not "disastrous" in another area of the Coast:

Strong forecast for projected salmon return

By the Herald staff
Published: 03/06/10 9:21 am | Updated: 03/06/10 9:22 am


OLYMPIA -- A projected strong chinook salmon return to the Columbia River this summer could bolster fishing prospects in the river and off the Washington coast, according to the state Department of Fish and Wildlife.

Forecasts for chinook, coho, sockeye, pink and chum salmon -- developed by the department and treaty Indian trbes -- mark the starting point for developing 2010 salmon-fishing seasons in Puget Sound, the Columbia River and Washington coastal areas.

Fishery managers have scheduled a series of public meetings over the next few weeks to discuss potential fishing opportunities before finalizing seasons in mid-April.

Phil Anderson, director of Fish and Wildlife, said staff will work closely with tribal co-managers and constituents to develop fisheries that meet conservation objectives and provide fishing opportunities on abundant runs of wild and hatchery fish.

Fishery managers will consider adding new mark-selective fisheries, which allow anglers to catch and keep abundant hatchery salmon but require that they release wild salmon, said Pat Pattillo, salmon policy coordinator for the department.

Nearly 653,000 fall chinook are predicted to make their way along the Washington coast to the Columbia River this season, about 234,000 more chinook than last year's actual return.

The increased numbers represent abundant returns to Spring Creek and other Columbia River hatcheries. But the expected Columbia River coho return is expected to be down this year.

Nearly 390,000 Columbia River coho are projected to make their way along Washington's coast this year, compared to one million coho in 2009.

"The Columbia River coho return is down compared to last year's run, which was one of the largest returns we've seen in the last decade," Pattillo said. "But there should still be decent coho fishing opportunities in the ocean and the Columbia River this year."




IMO the bottom line is that we don't know how to predict salmon returns anymore. The old relationships like sibling regression are failing. Why? No one knows. What we do know is that the total recreational harvest of salmon in BC could be zero, and it won't make a material difference in the escapement of any given run.

Something biger is going on and we need to pressure the DFO "scientists" to figure out what it is. Blaming our relatively small impact merely removes our focus from trying to get our public servants to find out the real answers.

The common thread in declining Fraser Chinook stocks has nothing to do with catch - they are all fish that spend more than a year in the river before heading to sea. Chinook that spend less than a year (ie North Thompson Summers, Lower fraser whites) are either stable, or returning in near record numbers. The smolt counts that lead to the dramatic overestimates on Fraser Sockeye in 2009 were a reliable indicator for 20 plus years. What we do know is that more, and larger sockeye smolts entered the Fraser from their natal lakes than had ever been seen from those systems. What happened???? Is there something wrong with the Fraser itself? Is it sea lice from Broughton Fish farms? The common theme is we don't know. Finding out may be a really good idea IMO. Perhaps the millions we spend on yet another politically motivated enquiry could be better spent on actually finding out out what is going on with the fish.

As far as Hume's article goes, depending on which runs\species you choose to pick, you could suggest that salmon stocks are at least holding their own, or maybe doing better. Its media folks, they aren't paid to tell the truth, they are paid to sell newspapers. For every doom and gloom report, you can find another that talks about "record returns". Its all a matter of perspective, not biology.

Those of you that are looking fondly on the '70s must have only been fishing Georgia Strait, and only on good days. Some of you that actually fished in the 70's may remember, in 1975 a little program called SEP was introduced in response to dramatic declines in salmon production coastwide. The 50's and 30's saw similar declines, while the 60's & 80's saw dramatic increases in salmon abundance. Have any of you ever considered that the mid 80's to early 2000's produced significant high abundances of Chinook and Coho way beyond any historic average, and thats why your expectations are so high? Don't kid yourself, the good old days weren't always that good. Salmon abundance is, and always has been cyclical. The only constant is change.

Anyway, from Gooey's perspective, I'm gonna launch the boat this summer with high hopes. Some years I do well others not so well. I won't have even a moment of guilt if I bonk a few for my family and friends - salmon are good to eat, if they weren't we wouldn't be making such a fuss over them. One thing I will predict is that some stocks will return better than predicted, others less than predicted.

I beleive it was Ricker of the famous "Ricker's curve" who summed it up best for me and please forgive me if I paraphrase a bit:

"Predicting salmon abundance isn't rocket science. Its much more difficult than that."

IMO we need to keep focussed on the real issues, remind our politicians who they work for, support the scientists, and we may get some answers. If we keep squabbling and allocating blame amongst ourselves we'll see nothing change.

Gooey

 

[TheBigGuy]

quote:Originally posted by Gooey Bob

Yawn...same old crap. Here's another "media report" (pulled from a freshwater thread) that illustrates that from the mopinion of this reporter, predictions are not "disastrous" in another area of the Coast:

Strong forecast for projected salmon return

OLYMPIA -- A projected strong chinook salmon return to the Columbia River this summer could bolster fishing prospects in the river and off the Washington coast, according to the state Department of Fish and Wildlife.


Those of you that are looking fondly on the '70s must have only been fishing Georgoa Strait

Hey Gooey, with all due respect that strong forecast return is for American fish. Maybe during the next round of Salmon negotiations with the US our country agrees to drastically limit interceptions of Columbia fish. If these off shore fish were off limits, I don't think a lot of fishers would be saying how great the fishing is.

Yes we look fondly back on the seventies because there were actually Coho in the strait then. There was no need to fish anywhere else than the Georgia Strait, if you lived on the Strait. Most people that lived on the straight then did not need to go to remote fishing destinations as the fishing was just fine at home. If you lived on the lower strait then you'd know what a loss it's been.

 

[SerengetiGuide]

I think we can all agree that we should all pray for a good return to BC rivers this year. Thing is, we really have little to no clue what the returns will be despite the forecast...they are so inaccurate...so lets just cross our fingers, do what we can to help out with returns, and see hope it is a good year.

www.serengetifishingcharters.com

*NEW VIDEO*
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlEzuNC59ck

 

[searun]

I have to agree with Millsy here...we don't need a lot of doom and gloom thinking without knowing all the facts. DFO hasn't yet come out with their forecast, and after last years mess on the Stamp/Somass I would be particularly careful not to readily accept any predictions coming out from them unless I had hard evidence of jack return data that agreed with their prediction. Last year they over estimated the return, yet the jack return told the whole story - and was accurate in terms of what we could likely expect.

Notwithstanding, there will be plenty of US bound fish headed down the WCVI which will make for an incredible season regardless of what we get from local rivers. It is rather unfortunate that DFO scaled back hatchery production, or we too could expect bountiful returns to our rivers.

I was talking to a fisheries tech from one of the DFO hatcheries and he was telling me that the cost to produce addition smolts is really nothing. The funding cut backs are a bunch of crap, and frankly its about time anglers started lobbying to charge a little hatchery surcharge onto every license sold with the funds directed back into additional net new hatchery production. I think the SFAB needs to take this type of initiative forward so we can press for increased production to sort of match what is happening south of the border.

Searun

 

[gamechanger]

Yep the actual money they save at the hatcheries is peanuts when they cut back production, but more of the issue is the Wild Salmon Policy. The government put the WSP in place to basically try and protect wild salmon stocks in a world of dominating hatchery stocks and industry and development. What DFO and the fishing industry has changed over the past 40 years is that fisheries are primarily now driven on hatchery returns, where in the past much of that was wild fish.

The high hatchery returns are nice for people who want to catch fish but if you keep pumping hatchery numbers higher, wild stocks get hammered, because their remaining small numbers are fished harder than they can handle. The runs get beat down to nothing because of the inflated fishing pressure caused by hatchery production.

It's not a question of whehter we could produce lots of fish from our hatcheries, we all know that, it's the social and the ethical questions of wiping out more and more of the wild salmon stock in the process. What's the right thing to do? Good and bad things for both sides, and will be a tough one to sort out.

 

[searun]

I've kind of given up on the whole wild salmon strategy when I see the results from how it has worked for Steelhead here in BC

One small bonus behind having hatchery fish is at least we would still have some remnant of the genetic pool. The current slow death by a thousand paper cuts is killing our fishery.

I'm switching my thinking around we need to do the following (in no particular order of importance):

1) stop salmon farming in open containment pens
2) ramp up hatchery production
3) ramp up construction of net new fish habitat
4) ramp up stream fertilization to increase natural productive capacity of our streams
5) address predation issues - seals; especially controlling in-river seal predation and estuary predation
6) experiment with holding smolts in sea pens for the initial phase of their transition into salt water to help bulk them up and keep them away from predation

How would I pay for it...simple. Impose a user fee on license holders both recreational and commercial who would directly benefit from increased production.

We often have some simple solutions aimed at solving only one element of a complex interdependent natural systems. What is needed to match nature is a multi-faceted approach...and we better get at it quick.

Searun

 

[Brisco]

quote:Originally posted by SerengetiGuide

I think we can all agree that we should all pray for a good return to BC rivers this year. Thing is, we really have little to no clue what the returns will be despite the forecast...they are so inaccurate...so lets just cross our fingers, do what we can to help out with returns, and see hope it is a good year.

www.serengetifishingcharters.com

*NEW VIDEO*
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlEzuNC59ck

Praying might help. Ask D.F.O. for salmon forecasts,they are excellent at it. 17 million sockeye coming, oh wait make that 1.7 million. [:I]

 

[Gooey Bob]

Originally posted by searun

I've kind of given up on the whole wild salmon strategy when I see the results from how it has worked for Steelhead here in BC

One small bonus behind having hatchery fish is at least we would still have some remnant of the genetic pool. The current slow death by a thousand paper cuts is killing our fishery.

I'm switching my thinking around we need to do the following (in no particular order of importance):

1) stop salmon farming in open containment pens
2) ramp up hatchery production
3) ramp up construction of net new fish habitat
4) ramp up stream fertilization to increase natural productive capacity of our streams
5) address predation issues - seals; especially controlling in-river seal predation and estuary predation
6) experiment with holding smolts in sea pens for the initial phase of their transition into salt water to help bulk them up and keep them away from predation

How would I pay for it...simple. Impose a user fee on license holders both recreational and commercial who would directly benefit from increased production.

We often have some simple solutions aimed at solving only one element of a complex interdependent natural systems. What is needed to match nature is a multi-faceted approach...and we better get at it quick.

Searun

Excellent approach Searun!! I'd support everything you've suggested.

Gooey.

 

[Charter Tofino]

With all the talk of the old days i thought i should post this great vid again. Its sad that this is likely only the late eighties.Casually talking about 50-60lb fish[xx(]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=idfrXBaIWS0&feature=fvw

 

[TheBigGuy]

Thanks for the link Kelly. I used to have all John Masseys videos, but I chucked all my tapes a while back. Not everything about the past is better, sure don't miss those crappy VHS tapes. Fun to see those shows again.

Daiwa used to hold a coastwide derby back in the eighties or early nineties. The winner was always over seventy pounds, and many times it was from Blackfish Sound. The Port Alberni derby winners also used to be in the sixty lb class way back when. My how things have changed.