Fishing fleet set to reap bumper sockeye harvest

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Weekend read: Fishing fleet set to reap bumper sockeye harvest
Industry vows to be better prepared for huge Fraser run than it was for 2010's record returns
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Approximately 80% of the Fraser River sockeye caught in B.C. is exported. Japan accounted for about a third of the $174 million worth of B.C. sockeye sold in 2010. Figures shown do not include exports to smaller markets or sales of frozen and canned sockeye carried over into 2011
By Nelson Bennett Fri Jul 11, 2014 1:47pm PST
In 2009, B.C. sockeye salmon sales generated just $39.2 million, thanks to the near collapse of that year’s Fraser River sockeye run.
A year later, sales hit $174.4 million, which doesn’t include all the frozen and canned sockeye that would have been sold in 2011, according to B.C.’s 2011 Seafood Industry Year in Review.
The catch – and the resulting sales – could have been much higher than that, say fisheries experts, but the 2010 returns were so unexpectedly high that it caught fisheries managers, commercial fishermen and processing plants unprepared, and a lot of fish that might have been caught and sold went up the river to spawn – about 13 million, according to one estimate.
Fisheries managers were stunned when 28 million sockeye returned to the Fraser River in 2010 – the highest return on record – and processing plants were overwhelmed with the bounty.
“In 2010, the industry was stretched to its capacity,” said Rob Morley, vice-president of product and corporate development for Canadian Fishing Co. (Canfisco). “That essentially means you have to slow how much fish a fisherman can catch.”
Thanks in part to an unusually large escapement of about 13 million fish in 2010, the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) is planning for another monster run this season – possibly record-breaking.
This time around, commercial fishermen and processing plants along the B.C. coast are hoping to be better prepared.
“I think we have enough capacity to harvest the fish coming back,” Morley said.
“You’re looking at an industry that’s better prepared,” said Joy Thorkelson, a spokeswoman for the United Fishermen and Allied Workers Union. “The processors have been expanding their capacity on the south coast.”
This year’s return is estimated to be anywhere between seven million and 70 million fish, although there’s only a 10% chance of 70 million returning. For planning purposes, DFO is aiming for a return of 23 million, which would be the second-largest run on record.
Dennis Brown, author of the book Salmon Wars, believes 23 million is an accurate forecast.
“They’ll get a decent return this year,” he said, “but they’re not going to get a giant run.”
Despite wild swings in salmon populations and policies that have kept commercial fishermen off the water – even in years when sockeye were relatively abundant – Fraser River sockeye are still considered the bread and butter of B.C.’s seafood industry.
Chinook may fetch higher prices, but sockeye is highly valued and comparatively prolific.
In 2010, wild sockeye generated $174.4 million in sales, coho $20.5 million, chinook $18.5 million, pink $16.8 million and chum $9.7 million.
Even in 2009, when only 1.4 million Fraser River sockeye returned, sockeye generated more money than any of the other four species of wild salmon.
Based on sales figures from the BC Salmon Marketing Council, about 20% of the sockeye caught in B.C. are sold in Canada. The rest are sold to export markets.
Of the $174.4 million in sales in 2010, Japan alone accounted for $56 million ($18.5 million fresh, $37.5 million frozen). The second biggest export market is the U.S.
B.C.’s other major seafood industry – salmon farms – also sells 20% of its product domestically; 80% is exported. Unlike with wild salmon, however, the U.S. – not Japan – is the largest buyer, and unlike wild salmon, farmed Atlantic salmon are only sold fresh, not frozen.
Should this year’s return of Fraser River sockeye be in the 20-million range, B.C. salmon farmers expect to see their prices drop.
“An increased amount of sockeye salmon in the marketplace is going to reduce the commodity price of Atlantic salmon, similar to if the Chileans put a bunch of product on the market, then the price of Atlantic salmon overall, globally, goes down,” said Jeremy Dunn, a BC Salmon Farmers Association spokesman.
B.C.’s seafood industry generated $1.4 billion in 2010 and 2011. Salmon farming accounted for between $550 million and $560 million; wild salmon generated between $208 million and $240 million. •
Sockeye cycle science
If this year’s Fraser River sockeye returns are in the 30-million-to-40-million range, it’s unlikely the commercial fishing sector could cope, says retired fisheries biologist Carl Walters, an expert in fisheries stock assessments.
That many fish would likely result in large escapements, as in 2010, when an estimated 13 million fish made it to the spawning grounds. By contrast, the escapement in 2009 was one million, according to a fisheries paper produced by Simon Fraser University in 2010.
So what’s wrong with letting that many salmon return to spawn? Nothing, if you’re a fish.
It’s not so good for those who depend on them for their livelihoods, because, according to one model for sockeye population cycles, if too many fish are allowed to spawn in one year, they overwhelm a lake’s food source. Sockeye spend their first year in the lakes where they were hatched. If there are too many, they will eat all the food in a lake, leaving nothing for subsequent runs.
For more on sockeye supercycles: www.biv.com/news/fisheries
 
Looks like the salmon farming industry has good reason to cheer against wild salmon. Abundant sockeye = lower farmed fish price. Can't have that... Can we?
 
So the main reason we are expecting another bumper run of Sox is that a large number made it to the spawning grounds. This year the commercial sector is "prepared" to ensure that doesn't happen again by catching as many as possible. Great logic...
 
DFO is using the outbound smolt migration observations of 2 years ago of the young from the 2010 run to base their predictions. Record numbers of young Sockeye heading to sea. I would be less concerned about the commercial take of Sockeye as there is some accountability to an accurate harvest number. I would be more concerned with the incidental catch of Coho and the less accountable number of Sockeye taken in river. Hard to manage any fishery when user groups can fish without fear of repercussions to over fishing.
 
DFO is using the outbound smolt migration observations of 2 years ago of the young from the 2010 run to base their predictions. Record numbers of young Sockeye heading to sea. I would be less concerned about the commercial take of Sockeye as there is some accountability to an accurate harvest number. I would be more concerned with the incidental catch of Coho and the less accountable number of Sockeye taken in river. Hard to manage any fishery when user groups can fish without fear of repercussions to over fishing.
That is one index. The other is the % of jacks (precocious males - mostly age 3-2 fish, i.e. 3 YO but 2 years in the salt chuck) in the previous years run. More jacks this year usually means a bigger run next year. It is still a guesstimate with statistical limits to that guess. Hence the probability (i.e. 50%, etc.) estimates to those #s. As the test fisheries report numbers - that estimate gets revised. See:

2013 pre-season estimate: http://frafs.ca/sites/default/files/2013 pre-season forecast SK-PK FN Forum 26-Feb.pdf
2014 pre-season estimate: http://media.commonsensecanadian.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/DFO-2014-sockeye-forecast.pdf

Another consideration in the assessment of TAC is the very real phenomenon of density-dependent mechanisms inhibiting growth of individuals and increasing mortality within populations. This can happen on the spawning grounds, within the lake, or within the ocean - or any/all 3.

By that - I mean to start with - that you can get too many fish within a watershed spawning. Bioturbation (a fancy term for digging-up previously-spawned redds) is a well-known effect that becomes more severe when spawning densities rise. Bioturbation can lower periphyton (algae) and stream invertebrate numbers to the point where nutrient enrichment effects from salmon carcasses are largely offset by the disturbance of fish digging redds. In addition, eggs in previously-laid redds can experience elevated mortality due to larger numbers of later spawners redigging the redds. See:

http://faculty.washington.edu/gholt/pdfs/Holtgrieve&Schindler_2011_Ecology_wAppend.pdf
http://www.sfu.ca/biology/faculty/jwmoore/publications/Moore_etal_Oecologia_04.pdf
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...sCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false
http://html.afsbooks.org/proofs/ssh/greene.pdf
http://home.comcast.net/~ruggerone/FW_Sockeye_Growth.PDF

Then, once the fry absorb their yolk-sac and head to a lake to rear (as far as most sockeye are concerned) - they can grow more slowly and have elevated mortality if there is too many fry in the lake. Decreases in growth translate into increases in mortality as the escape response/speed for a fish increases as it's length/size increases. Predators can get more of the smaller, less well-nourished fry. There is an optimum density of fry for each individual lake that depends upon that lake's productivity. Again - all of this is a well-known phenomenon. See:

http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/FedAidpdfs/AFRB.04.2.120-135.pdf
https://groups.nceas.ucsb.edu/monitoring-kb/dot/references/Hume et al. 1996.pdf
http://www.benthamscience.com/open/tofishsj/articles/V004/49TOFISHSJ.pdf
http://biblio.uqar.ca/archives/1007290.pdf
http://juaneslab.weebly.com/uploads/2/0/0/1/20017591/walters_and_juanes_93.pdf

Then if the smolts make it to the ocean to grow into subadults and eventually return as spawners - there are also density-dependent mechanisms there. See:

http://alaska.usgs.gov/products/pubs/2007/2007_Ruggerone_Nielsen_Bumgarner_DeepSeaResII_54.pdf
http://www.sfu.ca/grow/science/resources/1273768691.pdf
http://www.stateofthesalmon.org/con..._presentations/Session_1b/10SoS_Kaeriyama.pdf
http://www.fmap.ca/ramweb/papers-total/Myers_2002_Handbook.pdf
http://www.npafc.org/publications/Technical Report/TR8/Peterman et al.pdf
http://www.npafc.org/publications/Bulletin/Bulletin No. 4/299-310Mathisen.pdf

So - there is an optimum numbers of spawners that produces a maximum return. This is reflected in spawner/recruit curves as a flattening-out (or asymptote), and optimum numbers are often expressed in terms of "escapement goals":

http://www.solv.ca/files/PICES2010Pestal&Tunon_SR_Vis_Poster.pdf
http://www.arlis.org/docs/vol1/RIR/76896650.pdf
http://www.arlis.org/docs/vol1/RIR/76896431.pdf

More is not necessarily better. There are density-dependent effects. There is an optimum number of salmon for each watershed. Allowing the commercial fleet to take more of the strong runs - if the escapement goals are met - is a management trigger that produces more salmon in the long run. It's weak stock management that is the key to managing large and complex watersheds with multiple runs that can overlap. Understanding and managing capture fisheries based on run-timing of weak stocks then becomes the critical exercise in risk-adverse management strategies.
 
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Looks like the salmon farming industry has good reason to cheer against wild salmon. Abundant sockeye = lower farmed fish price. Can't have that... Can we?

Happens every year.

Wild salmon runs return, prices drop a bit, then go back up.

We're quite happy supplying the market with fresh fish at a premium price for the rest of the year.
 
Happens every year.

Wild salmon runs return, prices drop a bit, then go back up.

We're quite happy supplying the market with fresh fish at a premium price for the rest of the year.
What's the farm-gate value for Atlantics, CK?
 
Thanks for the link, CK. Using the numbers off the Table on page 2 - I generated the following graphic. Any errors in this is from the reports numbers.

Interesting that the mark-up is so high on pinks, coho and sockeye (and chum - eggs/caviar) - but not farmed salmon. That money is *NOT* going to the fishermen. It almost seems that the processors get what they want off the wild fishery and the commercial fisherman - lots of money - but keep the profit margins low for farmed salmon to compete with the wild product.
 

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Here's another graphic generated from the same Table. Interesting to note the raw profit the processors make off both wild and cultured sales. On average wild run returns - they make 2/3 of their profit on wild stocks -some $160 M-illion/yr (thanks finaddict)- over half of that from sockeye sales. Makes me want to get into the processing industry
 

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Might want to drop your figures by a thousand-fold there, Double A. That is 160 Million, not 160 with a B. ;-)
 
roger-dodger finaddict. Good eyes. The extra zeros after the decimal fooled my old eyes. Anyways - that's my story and I'm sticking to it...
 
The farm is two steps away from the grocery store, or restaurant.

We control the logistics of many elements fishermen do not.

The process of buying fish from fishermen has remained the same for years, long before the advent of salmon aquaculture.
 
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