Adams R sockeye return

[chevy guy]

Pieces. Always hated that. The way we treat our precious salmon the pieces will all be gone soon. I have been fishing the coast for 40 years and the way it has been managed makes me sick.

 

[Ian wagner]

On the Adams every fall multiple days / week since 1994 and 2010 was an avg year at best in the Adams proper. In 2010 the schools of staging fish off the mouth were modest at best and were gone by last week of October. By comparison, in 2002, there was such a backlog of fish off the mouth from the last week in September until well into November there were masses of fish that at times extended miles out into the lake, literally as far as you could see there were finning and jumping fish. PSC built up the “run of the century” for months and DFO did there part in fishing the f—k out of it, but it didn’t materialize liked they’d hoped but they had dozens of excuses for why the various counts didn’t support the bold predictions. Don’t get me wrong, 2010 was still a pretty decent dominant cycle, just nowhere near The numbers back to spawn In the Adams R compared to 2002.

Cheers!

Ukee

The 2010 run of late run was bye far the largest since 1913 40 years of fishing sockeye and I still can't believe how many fish there were that year don't no were your getting your numbers from

 

[UkeeDreamin]

If you read the post, I refer to the return to the spawning grounds in and around Shuswap Lake. As far as total numbers, no idea of the combined catch and escapement numbers between the top peak years.

Cheers!

Ukee

 

[Whitebuck]

Ian Wagner, I'm guessing you don't spend any time in the fall on the Adams. The return that materializes in the ocean gets absolutely hammered by nets enroute to the spawning grounds. 2010 was huge....2014 got absolutely smashed by comm and FN. The multiple days on the Adams I spent this fall I saw the return was a lot smaller than what should have gotten through! But more great dfo management as usual.I can't wait to see the bogus number DFO comes up with for the 2022 cycle.

 

[Dave]

Haha. I'm waiting for a final number on Chilliwack chums ...

 

[Ian wagner]

Ian Wagner, I'm guessing you don't spend any time in the fall on the Adams. The return that materializes in the ocean gets absolutely hammered by nets enroute to the spawning grounds. 2010 was huge....2014 got absolutely smashed by comm and FN. The multiple days on the Adams I spent this fall I saw the return was a lot smaller than what should have gotten through! But more great dfo management as usual.I can't wait to see the bogus number DFO comes up with for the 2022 cycle.

After the 2009 sockeye crash DFO got caught with their pants up no one expected the huge run of 2010 that is why so many fish made it up to the Adams that year the town of chase stunk for 3 months straight because there was so many carcasses. I agree with what you are saying about 2014 and especially this year about over fishing this run but that didn't happen in 2010

 

[High Time]

Maybe this attachment might be helpful, or maybe not.... Anyway, it shows where all the Fraser sockeye cycles are heading,including the Adams, after this years poor return

[/url][/IMG]

 

[Whitebuck]

Of course our sockeye returns are going to ****, we have nets in the Fraser everyday from end of March till December.
With the increase in economic FN openings the stocks never get a break! Completely mismanaged into extinction by DFO!
What is also odd....DFO is not keeping the records of catch, openings or anything up to date for the public eye on the main page. Everything from 2015 on isn’t out in the open anymore.
You can still ask for the records....but I have been waiting for a couple weeks for them.
Guess DFO does t really want the public seeing these records?
https://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fm-gp/fraser/archives-a-eng.html

 

[Peahead]

Sure would be good to remove the nets for sure.

I do see some interesting stats in that Sockeye return document. It seems after 2009 disastrous return, improvement happened until 2014 when a downhill slide looks to have started. 2011 had a marine recreational opening off the Fraser (the year after the big 2010 run) with an 50% probability estimate very close to actual of 5.1 mil. Considering the brood year for that 2011 run (in 2007) having only 1.5 mil., that is quite surprisingly good number for 2011. Then that brood from that cycle returning 4 years later in 2015, the opposite.....a 50% drop. Interesting the ups and downs!

2005 / 2009 massive drop/disaster
2006 / 2010 over 100% improvement (Adams peak cyc)
2007 / 2011 over 200% improvement
2008 / 2012 approx 30% improvement
2009 /2013 almost 200% improvement (recovery from 2009 disaster)
2010 /2014 approx 30% drop ( Adams peak cyc)
2011 /2015 drop of over 50%

2016 huge drop
2017 huge drop

Also interesting that the 50% probability forecast from 2011 to 2014 and was very accurate - not so much before and after that.

 

[wildmanyeah]

Maybe this attachment might be helpful, or maybe not.... Anyway, it shows where all the Fraser sockeye cycles are heading,including the Adams, after this years poor return

[/url][/IMG]

Updated

 

[wildmanyeah]

 

[Whitebuck]

What has dramatically increased on the Fraser the last 10/15 years on the Fraser?
And each year keeps increasing and increasing?

 

[wildmanyeah]

What has dramatically increased on the Fraser the last 10/15 years on the Fraser?
And each year keeps increasing and increasing?

Sturgeon fishermen? sewage?

 

[Peahead]

Sturgeon fishermen? sewage?

Nets, FN rights to fish, poaching, habitat distruction, pollution, rec fisherman, water temps, pinniped predation of smolts...... ok I am getting depressed now

 

[GLG]

Lot's of speculation on this thread but one should not discount the major effect of the "Blob".
http://www.frafs.ca/sites/default/files2/2018 Fraser Sockeye Science Integration STATE OF SALMON FORUM_0.pdf

Another PDF that I ran across that tells the same story but for 2019 but adds the effect of forest fires.
https://sportfishing.bc.ca/wp-conte...ns-informing-2019-Returns-Nov-22-2018-SFI.pdf

 

[wildmanyeah]

Over harvested no surprise for people that were watching the numbers.

Shuswap late-run sockeye drop by 700,000

https://www.saobserver.net/news/shu...Qn2t33hgxjG8Y8yhTe8Wk0vzwd35garACgCRAfA4HEGkU

 

[Dave]

Wait for it ... activists will use these low numbers to claim fish farms are the reason.

 

[Bamfield Fishing]

Wait for it ... activists will use these low numbers to claim fish farms are the reason.

Pacific Salmon Commission chief biologist Mike Lapointe: “We didn’t have the fish come out of the gulf and head upstream that we thought we would but we’re not sure why?"

Maybe because of all the nets?

 

[wildmanyeah]

Pacific Salmon Commission chief biologist Mike Lapointe: “We didn’t have the fish come out of the gulf and head upstream that we thought we would but we’re not sure why?"

Maybe because of all the nets?

Their troll surveys were out to lunch ask any fishermen that was out their fishing off the mouth in the gulf. In 2014 late run was 10 times better. Their in season estimates of fish holding in the gulf were between 500k and 7 million at one point.



They estimated too high and over harvested, so yeah all fish ended up in nets well not all just 63% of them

but what if they underestimated? they are already being sued by the area E gill net fleet for not getting them all their quota.

This was a pretty big F up.