Things are not as they should be in Alaska

[Fishmyster]

If you wanted to "truth" your hypothesis, Fishmyster - there would be quite a few ways to do that - and potentially - a few different components.

From the broad-scale down to the fine-scale - I have a few suggestions for generating supporting data:
1/ Do a large-scale overview of escapement trends - particularly looking at potential differences between acid-sensitive verses acid-buffered systems. On VI, particularly - there are a number of acid-buffered systems due to geology and soils. Look at a geologic map to determine which watersheds to compare.
2/ Do a longitudinal (time series) study with the data you say you have - and then do a multivariate analyses, and/or
3/ Do a focused mesocosm approach - changing pH and temps - then looking at decomposition rates and decomposition bacteria.

Thank you AA
That is what I have been doing for the last couple years.
My findings are that long term productivity trends of many species relying on stable functioning stream ecology match the changing input water chemistry changes (rain). Although there are not any records of stream invertebrate population assessments from mid 1970's-mid 1980's I personally witnessed major extermination of many insect species since then. The presence and timing of Didymo also matches the timing of depressed rain ph. I have visited many coastal streams. My efforts compared buffering capabilities and productivity trends of coastal streams have been the most enlightening of analysis. Streams with high alkalinity or dissolved organic carbon have much less variation in productivity over the same time frame.
I have read up a lot on nitrifying bacteria. In most literature ph is noted to be of importance and these bacteria. Apparently they are sensitive to ph change, alkalinity levels, heavy metals and oxygen levels. There is not much for detailed information of this bacteria in natural settings it is mostly researched and used for fish culture or aquarium bio filteration. There is some information of this in lake acidification studies where the information matches what I have witnessed locally [algae changes].
I am at a point where I confidently understand what caused all the changes in freshwater. Simply put it is a volatile environment that the food web has to perform in and in years of high productivity we are enjoying an event of beneficial climatic stability that allows the food web to flourish.
The most important oversight of our local fisheries management in my opinion is to not correctly monitor the changing water chemistry and how it has effected coastal ecology. There could be other methods of enhancement more efficient then stocking fish.

 

[agentaqua]

Anomalous ocean conditions in 2015 may bode poorly for juvenile Chinook salmon survival
03/14/2017
http://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/archi...-bode-poorly-juvenile-chinook-salmon-survival
http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v566/p169-182

 

[Reel Time]

WOW! This is not a environmental issue to the poor Chinook numbers. Its commercial fishing pressure hammering on low stocks and the fact that when the stocks are pushed so low, the record number of seals and sea lions hamper progression. Were out of balance right now. These salmon once spawned in waters of northern mexico/southern california, very very resilient fish when given a chance.

 

[Dave]

Bang on RT. The sooner all user groups stop killing wild salmon, the sooner the recovery will begin.

Yeah, waiting for that to happen

 

[OnTick]

Fishmyster, interesting view..

 

[GLG]

I spent a few hours looking around and found this. Looks like they are having some of the same issues we are having here in the SoG.

http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=chinookinitiative.main
What is causing low runs of Chinook salmon in Alaska?
Numerous physical and biological factors can influence production and survival of Chinook salmon in the freshwater and marine phases of their lifecycle. Research through this initiative suggests that most of the Chinook salmon mortality is occurring in the first few months of life at sea. Additional research is needed to gain a better understanding of the primary factors that are affecting Chinook productivity and abundance. Fluctuations in the survival of Chinook salmon smolt can significantly alter run strengths at local, regional, and statewide scales. For instance, the long-term marine survival for four Southeast stocks has been about four percent, meaning for every 100 smolt that emigrate to sea, four fish will return as adults over the next one to five years. Research has shown that during the period of poor production, marine survival has dipped below one percent. This decrease in marine survival, even in the face of some very good freshwater production in several systems, has resulted in a major downturn in overall adult production. The exact mechanisms behind the increased mortality rates are unknown, but environmental conditions such as precipitation, air and ocean temperatures and water currents, to name a few, are believed to affect juvenile salmon survival.

 

[Fishmyster]

I have read thru the report. I huge gap and not mentioned environmental conditions is water chemistry, bacterial-algae changes or invertebrate composition. These are all huge changes we have had in our waters.