All Things COVID-19

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This isn't in response to anything in this thread, more just general information. But I thought it might interest some people - these are just a couple of excerpts from a discussion I was having with a friend of mine who works in a high level research position at a large American institution doing work directly related to this stuff - his field of study is respiratory virology and immunology. He's one of the people I've relied on for information from day one and it was his warning about the radical increase in viral loads from the delta virus (not that this will necessarily worsen symptoms but it probably explains why people with it are so contagious) that made me decide to get vaccinated.

Anyway I'd been chatting with him about the vaccines, and the drop-off in efficacy and whether that was, indeed, an indicator that long term side effects were improbable, and his responses included such a good description of the immune system, how it works, what the pitfalls of vaccine design are, and so on, that I asked if he didn't mind if I posted them publicly. He's such a good source of detailed information I just think it's generally worth a read.

One note: when he says things like "but I'm not an expert in this" he means in the sense that he is not a specialist in that narrow topic, i.e. he doesn't personally look for ways to prod a strand of RNA to replicate proteins to bind to ACE2 receptors or something. His understanding of the topic is light years ahead of normal people's, but at his level everyone is so specialized that he has people doing that specific thing so he has to go take a look at the research to see what the latest on that topic is. By normal people standards, as will probably be obvious from his comments, he's an expert's expert. Yes, casual conversations with him always sound like this.

Anyway this was in response to a question I had about the rapid drop off of vaccine efficacy - this varies from vaccine to vaccine but none of them seem to be the kind of thing where you get a shot as a kid, and you're set for life, that's for sure.

Names concealed to protect the guilty.

Anonymous friend:
Antibodies are made by several kinds of cells in the B cell lineage. Once an immune response starts, activated B cells transition from "naive" to different states of activated and then memory cells. Maintaining antibody levels depends on many factors, some of which are unknown, that govern these cellular dynamics. The burst of antibody that we see after immunization comes from plasmablasts and activated B cells. After the immune response peaks, the B cells mostly become memory B cells, though some become long-lived plasma cells. (The plasmablasts are a dead end and die. This cell type is not the same as "long-lived plasma cells.") Memory B cells stop making much antibody, but they are still circulating in the body. The next time they encounter the antigen, the are able to make a lot more antibody very quickly, which provides protection against the virus. Long-lived plasma cells home to the bone marrow, find a comfy spot to hang out, and sit there and pump out antibody on autopilot until the finally die weeks to decades later. Vaccinated people with breakthrough infection make a lot more antibody than unvaccinated people who get infected, so the rapid antibody response in vaccinated people by memory B cells is definitely a big component of the protection. However, the antibody levels against any one virus decrease over time because devoting a disproportionate amount of immunological resources to one virus would likely make us more susceptible to other viruses. There are a lot of exceptions to this generality. Somee pathogens are better at stimulating B cells to become long-lived plasma cells than other pathogens. Measles is a champ, but viruses that are typically limited to infecting the respiratory tract are not good at getting B cells to become long-lived plasma cells.

To add complexity, there are also compartmental differences. The antibodies that everyone is measuring are IgG in the blood stream. The antibodies that are most crucial for protecting against infection are IgA on the surface of the upper respiratory tract. But the antibodies that are most important for preventing serious illness are IgG in the lung, which get there from the blood. The decay kinetics are different for the different antibodies and cell types. IgA decays faster than IgG, which also factors in to why see breakthrough cases (low IgA) and why breakthrough cases are mild (not quite so low IgG and fast response by memory B cells).

Getting back to antigen half-life: if you get too much antigen, you can have a tolerogenic response, i.e. train the immune system NOT to respond. Allergy shots are an example, where you start giving tiny doses of the protein that is causing a problem and then slowly increase the dose. Over time the immune system realizes that it doesn't need to respond to that protein. I think this line of though may be the basis for some of the tin foil hat comments I've read about the vaccine on other forums. Hypothetically, if you got a megadose of the antigen and it stayed around for a long time, the immune system might eventually stop perceiving it as a threat or the antigen itself could cause immune dysfunction. HIV is a good example of chronic antigen screwing with the immune response. Under this ridiculous scenario, the persistent antigen from the vaccine/gene therapy would make us less able to respond to infection and consequently increase morbidity and mortality from infection, thereby bringing to fruition the elites' plan to depopulate the planet. It's crystal clear that breakthrough infections don't cause anywhere near the morbidity of infections occurring in unvaccinated people, so this immunological scenario is obviously fiction. (However, there are some vaccinations where antigen hangs around for a while. The small pox vaccine is a good example. You get a nasty pock on your arm with virus making antigens for weeks. In this case, the virus is sending plenty of different danger signals to the immune system, so there no question that it's a threat.)

Hopefully what I've written makes some sense, and hopefully I've answered your questions. It's late, so I'm not 100% sure of either. I guess to sum it up, the vaccination needs to mimic an acute infection to the degree that there's a bunch of antigen that is cleared relatively rapidly. Given the timing of the cellular response, I don't think there's much benefit to having vaccine antigen hang around for more than ten days to two weeks. My guess is that the antigen from the mRNA vaccines is mostly gone in less than a week, but I haven't done any literature searches to see if the antigen half life in vivo is known. I could be very well be wrong. If anything is unclear, let me know and I'll try to clarify.
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Canadian with perfume of sawdust and fish blood:
Were you, then, given the difficulty of getting long lived plasma cells out of a respiratory virus, not surprised at the waning efficacy of the shots? Were boosters something you always imagined were likely?
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Friend:
I am not surprised at the waning efficacy of vaccines, but I'm surprised that it's waning this fast. I didn't really expect boosters to be an issue this soon. I think that boosters will be useful for the next year or so until most of the unvaccinated people have been infected. At that point, the rate of community transmission will drop and we'll reach our new normal. The virus will never go away though. I don't think that the vaccines will ever provide durable, long-lasting immunity because of the compartment issues (mucosal vs systemic) I mentioned. None of the current injected vaccines stimulate a good mucosal response, so immunologically, the best long term outcome is protection against severe illness. (An injectable vaccine that stimulates a good mucosal response is something of a holy grail for vaccinology.)

The plasma cell issue varies from vaccine to vaccine. I measured antibody responses against tetanus toxoid in a couple of dozen people, and they had toxoid-specific titers toward the high end of the range SARS-CoV-2-specific titers in people who recover from a typical COVID infection (not hospitalized). Tetanus boosters are recommended every ten years, but I don't know how often we get environmental boosts against tetanus. The tetanus vaccine also has an adjuvant, which, as far as I know, is lacking in the mRNA vaccines. For SARS-CoV-2, I'm pretty sure that a good vaccine adjuvant will help extend the duration of the response. Periodic re-infection will also likely play a role in preventing immunological memory from dropping too much.

After reading back over this, I should mention the HPV vaccine. HPV is sexually transmitted and causes cervical and throat cancer. The HPV vaccine is excellent, and it doesn't really fit into the paradigm I've described above. I don't have a good explanation except that I don't know as much about sexually transmitted infections and the immune response to them. The HPV vaccine also contains and adjuvant. This is a good contrast for me to consider, and I should be more aware of my respiratory bias.

The fact that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are made of mRNA never bothered. The RNAs have to have specific sequences for specific functions. Usually the problem people struggle with is that RNA is too fragile rather than it lasts too long. I'm definitely not an expert here, so I might have worried if I'd known more.
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Anyway I know I've said before that I know a few people working on the problem but when I was looking over this chat in particular I thought it might interest people to see it, partly because this is pure, unfiltered information from a research scientist and lecturer whose expertise is specifically respiratory virology and who is about as highly placed as you can be, before you are no longer working on the science and are in an administrative role. The vast majority of people would instantly recognize the name of the institution he works for, but he's not in a public-facing role aside from lectures he delivers (which are not to the general public anyway) and this is not official information so it's entirely unfiltered and without any agency agenda. It's just straight talk from a guy deep into the science, explaining to a substantially dimmer friend the current state of understanding.

I'd summarize it for people who don't want to slog through it but the slog in this case is too worthwhile to shortcut, IMO.
 
cracked_ribs said:
Canadian with perfume of sawdust and fish blood:


Friend:


Anyway I know I've said before that I know a few people working on the problem but when I was looking over this chat in particular I thought it might interest people to see it, partly because this is pure, unfiltered information from a research scientist and lecturer whose expertise is specifically respiratory virology and who is about as highly placed as you can be, before you are no longer working on the science and are in an administrative role. The vast majority of people would instantly recognize the name of the institution he works for, but he's not in a public-facing role aside from lectures he delivers (which are not to the general public anyway) and this is not official information so it's entirely unfiltered and without any agency agenda. It's just straight talk from a guy deep into the science, explaining to a substantially dimmer friend the current state of understanding.

I'd summarize it for people who don't want to slog through it but the slog in this case is too worthwhile to shortcut, IMO.
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Best post of entire thread. Thanks@cracked_ribs. So much information on here and across social media right now.
 
Excellent information. Highlights the need for most of us to know what we don't know and act accordingly.
 
 
tightlines said:
Comparing polio to covid is a huge reach. Kids were actually impacted by polio. Covid doesn't impact kids over an enormous sample size. What is your concern for your kid re covid based on?
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Um-- how about kids dying or suffering after effects that are just beginning to show in the adult population now???
 
Corey_lax said:
There must be an abundance of people lining up to work there. I couldn't afford to let unvaxxed people walk. I'll wait for public pressure to force them to get vaccinated before implementing mandatory vaccines. We do have quite a few hospital and care home jobs so I'm sure it won't take long before there isn't any work for the unvaxxed anyways.
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the maditory vaccine policy at my work has been put on hold. Apparently they have been bombarded with questions as well as there is a legal review.
 

How COVID-19 taught the public to distrust the authorities​

We discovered there was not one set of rules for all, and that even the strictest medical advice could be trumped by political considerations

nationalpost.com

Rex Murphy: How COVID-19 taught the public to distrust the authorities

We discovered there was not one set of rules for all, and that even the strictest medical advice could be trumped by political considerations
nationalpost.com nationalpost.com
 
Bryan Allen said:
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This article is behind a paywall so undoubtedly the Washington Post is a for profit corporation. I'm compelled to think that there could be a bias towards unethical journalistic practice to get eyeballs. Perhaps sensationalism. Just a thought.

You can probably find some kid out there if you search hard enough that has died riding a bike, or playing hockey, playing on swings, climbing on fences, eating grapes and the list goes on. This doesn't compel me to implement policy to put them in bubble wrap till they are safely in their 80s. Mitigating all risk is impossible.

Again I will post the data compiled by our own government as at Sept 24th, 2021. I'm sure it has it's flaws. Mainly missing total cases. It does however, show who is most at risk. It most certainly isn't kids. In fact, it shows that the risk is effectively zero for kids. I have circled some key figures.

Note of the 1,586,272 confirmed cases in Canada we have mechanically ventilated 1,985 people. 0.125%. The denominator is likely higher by x 2 if not more.

I don't see any kids in the graph at numbers that suggest they are at demonstrable risk.

Again I ask, can you please show me the data where kids are at risk from this?

We can be irrationally fearful of Covid or flatten the fear with data.


InkedICU Sept 24 - marked up.jpg




InkedSept 21 Deaths_LI.jpg
 
tightlines said:
This article is behind a paywall so undoubtedly the Washington Post is a for profit corporation. I'm compelled to think that there could be a bias towards unethical journalistic practice to get eyeballs. Perhaps sensationalism. Just a thought.

You can probably find some kid out there if you search hard enough that has died riding a bike, or playing hockey, playing on swings, climbing on fences, eating grapes and the list goes on. This doesn't compel me to implement policy to put them in bubble wrap till they are safely in their 80s. Mitigating all risk is impossible.

Again I will post the data compiled by our own government as at Sept 24th, 2021. I'm sure it has it's flaws. Mainly missing total cases. It does however, show who is most at risk. It most certainly isn't kids. In fact, it shows that the risk is effectively zero for kids. I have circled some key figures.

Note of the 1,586,272 confirmed cases in Canada we have mechanically ventilated 1,985 people. 0.125%. The denominator is likely higher by x 2 if not more.

I don't see any kids in the graph at numbers that suggest they are at demonstrable risk.

Again I ask, can you please show me the data where kids are at risk from this?

We can be irrationally fearful of Covid or flatten the fear with data.


View attachment 71083




View attachment 71084Kids may not suffer from the virus, but they can certainly spread it to those who may well suffer.
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