Strong Salmon Numbers for the Adams River

[Derby]

Strong salmon numbers defy predictions in B.C.'s Adams River run




By Cam Fortems, Kamloops Daily News October 6, 2011 10:32 AM





Story
Photos ( 1 )






Sockeye salmon on the the Adams River run in 2010.
Photograph by: Jim Cooperman, Special to The Sun
Sockeye salmon en route to Adams River are expected to return in stronger numbers for the second year in a row, following a decade of trouble in B.C.'s Fraser River system.

This year is known as a sub-dominant year in the cycle, one year after the dominant run in 2010 that surprised experts with its 10-million strong return, the largest in recorded history.

While sockeye are just starting to enter the system and show up at Adams Rivers in small numbers, biologists expect as many as 400,000 to 500,000 spawning salmon this year.

That's up from an early forecast of only 58,000 — nearly a 10-fold increase.

While it pales to last year, it marks a sign of optimism considering that four years ago, when these salmon began life, there were only 50,000 spawners in the Adams River, one of the world's greatest runs.

"We've got two years in a better cycle after eight to 10 years of decreasing productivity," said Barry Rosenberger, area director for Department of Fisheries and Oceans.

The decade of poor returns starting in the late '90s spawned a number of scientific papers and is the subject of the Cohen commission studying decline of the Fraser River's salmon runs.

Even if it reaches 500,000, however, the run will be half the historical average of one million returning salmon in the sub-dominant year.

Jim Cooperman, a director on the Adams River Salmon Society, said the forecast return is welcome news in light of what were declining stocks.

The society is hosting activities on the Thanksgiving weekend, including guided walking tours at Roderick Haig-Brown Park.

"As one of our members said, people are excited to see one fish, let alone thousands," Cooperman said.

The strength of this year's return corresponds with a later entry into the Fraser River system. Rosenberger said local residents have grown accustomed to the run starting in late September, something normal during the 10-year collapse.

But in 2010 and this year, as well as prior to the collapse, the run only became visible in early October and will peak in about three weeks.

Rosenberger said strength of returns corresponds to salmon entering the Fraser River system later, thus being less exposed to a freshwater parasite.

Scientists also believe there is a strong correlation to the ocean environment in salmon health.

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun


Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/Strong+...+Adams+River/5512762/story.html#ixzz1a1gzPz2w

 

[FishBC.org]

How can biologists accurately count salmon before they're in the river, considering all the factors involved including commie and FN fishing prior to them actually getting there.

Here's the kicker for me in that article.

"While sockeye are just starting to enter the system and show up at Adams Rivers in small numbers, biologists expect as many as 400,000 to 500,000 spawning salmon this year."

Sockeye are showing in small numbers... That's the part I am talking about.
Usually they arrive in HUGE numbers on good years.

I've been to the Adams many times. Small numbers of sockeye arriving is NOT a good indication that there will be a huge run there. I've seen it at times so packed that as the old saying goes you could walk across their backs. I've seen so many spawned sockeye carcasses below the Adams into Shuswap lake that It smelled so bad that I almost didn't feel like walking down to my dock there to fish (Almost).

I don't think they have a right to make a prediction in a newspaper article until they accurately know and can count the fish in the river. There's far too many variables to consider these days. Perhaps back in the day they could get an estimate but now we have disease, over fishing, and many other problems that are keeping the stocks too low to proper predict.

Shame Shame.

 

[Charter Tofino]

Even big runs start off with small numbers of fish entering the system. That's what it meant. It says right there that the bulk is 3 weeks out?

 

[FishBC.org]

Even big runs start off with small numbers of fish entering the system. That's what it meant. It says right there that the bulk is 3 weeks out?

Yeah It's hard to say Kelly. I will be surprised if they get 500,000 fish this year. It would be amazing if they did which defies what they've been thinking for years now. Over the span of the last decade until last year it was on a hard downward grade. Being as you say the bulk is 3 weeks away yet, could be surprised yet, but I'm just trying to figure out where they actually get their numbers from having witnessed it for years on end. I have a gut feeling that the commies wiped great numbers of them this year in comparison, to the numbers they are coming up with, and although disease may not play as high of a role due to lower water temps / higher water / later arrival, I don't think they'll hit the 500k mark. Time will tell. I guess we'll see how accurate the people allegedly keeping track of our fish really are.
I personally along with you I'm sure would love to see a return of over 500k but I have a deep fear that due to the surprise and the size of last year's run that DFO over allocated this year to the commies. We will see.

Also one should note that even viewing salmon on the Adams is a commercial interest now. The FN, are actually charging people money to walk along the river to view the fish lol. (I believe if I remember correct they call it a "parking" fee).


Amazing.

 

[Derby]

I believe the in river fish numbers are based on the test fishery in the Fraser River that has a fair good history of being right.....I could be wrong...