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http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/...iver-in-2017-others-to-be-unveiled-on-feb-28/
Salmon forecasts for 2017 will be unveiled Feb. 28 by state Fish and Wildlife, but a few early hints of what to expect have already come to light.
The Oregon Production Index – which provides ocean coho abundance forecasts for Columbia River and northern Oregon coast- announced this week showed numbers will likely be down although it should provide some ocean and in-river fisheries this summer and fall, but specifics won’t be known until mid-March.
“I would characterize these Columbia River coho returns as OK, and definitely not great,” said Wendy Beeghly, a state Fish and Wildlife coastal salmon manager. “They are quite similar to what we saw in 2010 and 2011, and during those years it wasn’t great for fishing.”
The forecast calls for 496,200 coho to arrive off the Washington-Oregon coast, compared to a preseason forecast of 549,200 last year and an actual return of 317,000. That pales in comparison to a forecast of 1,015,000 in 2015 and an actual return of 322,100 and a forecast in 2014 of 964,100 with a return of 1,240,800.
The Columbia subtotal this season is 386,300 (380,600 last year and 223,100 actual return) – these are fish that turn the corner of southwest Washington and doesn’t include the northern Oregon coast.
The Columbia forecast last year was 777,100 coho, but less than a third actually returned – 242,300. Poor ocean conditions and a lack of feed could have played a negative role.
While the Columbia coho numbers are part of how fishing seasons are shaped, they are just a small piece to the puzzle.
“What I’m more concerned about is what we will see for the rest of the coast and that is what limited our fisheries last year,” Beeghly said. “There are so many coastal coho stocks that could limit us. I’m not freaked out about these (OPI) numbers, and I’ll be cautiously optimistic until I see the others.”
Some other early Columbia River salmon returns were released in December, and offer anglers another glimpse of what anglers can expect.
“We hit the peak for bright chinook stocks,” Joe Hymer, a state Fish and Wildlife biologist said in an interview back in December. “Overall, we over-predicted all fall chinook stocks by about a third this past year. We’re on the backside of the peak, so hopefully our predictors will catch up.”
The Columbia River upriver bright stocks of fall chinook should be similar to years before 2013, which were 295,900 in 2012, 322,200 in 2011 and 324,900 in 2010.
Coastal salmon anglers have been relatively spoiled by very good fishing as fall chinook returns between 2013 and 2015 were at or well above record levels.
The all-time actual return record dating to 1938 was 1,268,400 adult chinook in 2013, which was 227 percent of the 2003-to-2012 average of 557,600 adult fish. In 2014, the actual return was 1,159,000, which was second-highest on record.
There was supposed to be another robust return of 960,000 fall chinook in 2016, but preliminary returns are about two-thirds of the forecast.
The 2017 bright stock jack chinook run is about half the recent 10-year average. Jacks are salmon that return a year earlier than their siblings to spawn and are used to help forecast the upcoming year’s run.
Most forecasted Columbia River return is comprised of “upriver” chinook. These are fish produced above Bonneville Dam, including upriver bright, Bonneville Pool Hatchery tule and pool upriver bright chinook.
Many also spawn naturally in the Hanford Reach, the last free-flowing stretch of the Columbia in eastern Washington. This area has become a hot spot for anglers in late summer and early fall.
Tule stocks return mostly to Lower Columbia River tributaries, plus the large Spring Creek National Fish Hatchery of the Columbia Gorge in eastern Skamania County.
While tule stocks return to freshwater in a less-desirable condition than bright chinook, their harvest often determines how long angling can stay open off the coast.
http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/...iver-in-2017-others-to-be-unveiled-on-feb-28/
Salmon forecasts for 2017 will be unveiled Feb. 28 by state Fish and Wildlife, but a few early hints of what to expect have already come to light.
The Oregon Production Index – which provides ocean coho abundance forecasts for Columbia River and northern Oregon coast- announced this week showed numbers will likely be down although it should provide some ocean and in-river fisheries this summer and fall, but specifics won’t be known until mid-March.
“I would characterize these Columbia River coho returns as OK, and definitely not great,” said Wendy Beeghly, a state Fish and Wildlife coastal salmon manager. “They are quite similar to what we saw in 2010 and 2011, and during those years it wasn’t great for fishing.”
The forecast calls for 496,200 coho to arrive off the Washington-Oregon coast, compared to a preseason forecast of 549,200 last year and an actual return of 317,000. That pales in comparison to a forecast of 1,015,000 in 2015 and an actual return of 322,100 and a forecast in 2014 of 964,100 with a return of 1,240,800.
The Columbia subtotal this season is 386,300 (380,600 last year and 223,100 actual return) – these are fish that turn the corner of southwest Washington and doesn’t include the northern Oregon coast.
The Columbia forecast last year was 777,100 coho, but less than a third actually returned – 242,300. Poor ocean conditions and a lack of feed could have played a negative role.
While the Columbia coho numbers are part of how fishing seasons are shaped, they are just a small piece to the puzzle.
“What I’m more concerned about is what we will see for the rest of the coast and that is what limited our fisheries last year,” Beeghly said. “There are so many coastal coho stocks that could limit us. I’m not freaked out about these (OPI) numbers, and I’ll be cautiously optimistic until I see the others.”
Some other early Columbia River salmon returns were released in December, and offer anglers another glimpse of what anglers can expect.
“We hit the peak for bright chinook stocks,” Joe Hymer, a state Fish and Wildlife biologist said in an interview back in December. “Overall, we over-predicted all fall chinook stocks by about a third this past year. We’re on the backside of the peak, so hopefully our predictors will catch up.”
The Columbia River upriver bright stocks of fall chinook should be similar to years before 2013, which were 295,900 in 2012, 322,200 in 2011 and 324,900 in 2010.
Coastal salmon anglers have been relatively spoiled by very good fishing as fall chinook returns between 2013 and 2015 were at or well above record levels.
The all-time actual return record dating to 1938 was 1,268,400 adult chinook in 2013, which was 227 percent of the 2003-to-2012 average of 557,600 adult fish. In 2014, the actual return was 1,159,000, which was second-highest on record.
There was supposed to be another robust return of 960,000 fall chinook in 2016, but preliminary returns are about two-thirds of the forecast.
The 2017 bright stock jack chinook run is about half the recent 10-year average. Jacks are salmon that return a year earlier than their siblings to spawn and are used to help forecast the upcoming year’s run.
Most forecasted Columbia River return is comprised of “upriver” chinook. These are fish produced above Bonneville Dam, including upriver bright, Bonneville Pool Hatchery tule and pool upriver bright chinook.
Many also spawn naturally in the Hanford Reach, the last free-flowing stretch of the Columbia in eastern Washington. This area has become a hot spot for anglers in late summer and early fall.
Tule stocks return mostly to Lower Columbia River tributaries, plus the large Spring Creek National Fish Hatchery of the Columbia Gorge in eastern Skamania County.
While tule stocks return to freshwater in a less-desirable condition than bright chinook, their harvest often determines how long angling can stay open off the coast.
