Guess the real questions to ask is what has changed since last season? We will IMO see the same measures as 2019 unless we can achieve a few fundamental shifts in relationships with First Nations, and be able to demonstrate through science our capacity to plan fisheries that minimize encounters with stocks of concern so that all key stakeholders have confidence and trust we can deliver successfully. We also need to ask tough questions around the issues driving those 2019 measures, and be realistic about what can change and within what timeline that can be accomplished.
What are the main issues that propelled the 2019 management decisions?
Likely boils down to 3 main ones....
1. Big Bar Slide blocks upstream migration for some Interior Fraser Chinook stocks of concern
2. Stream-Type Chinook Abundance - ocean survival and adult recruitment are performing poorly - most CU's are listed under COSEWIC as Threatened or Endangered
3. FN's claim their FSC Chinook fisheries have been infringed upon, and unless they are fishing to whatever FSC actually means they will threaten legal action to close all recreational fisheries that might impact FSC rights
Big Bar:
Have we repaired the Big Bar slide and made it passable for migration? No.
Are we likely to see a change in 2020 that solves this where we are able to state with certainty the 2020 run will be able to successfully migrate? No
Will DFO managers be able to relax their current precautionary principle approach without knowing if the 2020 run will be able to successfully migrate beyond the slide? No
Stream-Type Chinook Abundance:
Is the outlook for marine survival for stream-type chinook going to improve in 2020? No
Has DFO been able to address productivity for Stream-Type Chinook? No
Did the Department take measurable actions to increase productivity (hatcheries, habitat, predator control)? No Is that likely to be achieved in the short term (3 to 5 years)? No
Did the Department show it was prepared to employ management measures such as MSF or Avoidance to carefully carve out fishing opportunity for the public fishery in 2019? No
Has there been active interest within the Department to more strongly consider MSF or Avoidance? Yes
FSC Rights:
Is the Department likely to proceed with allowing recreational Chinook fisheries and fight potential legal challenges? No (haven't yet)
Is the Department likely to continue the precautionary management approach and carry on with FSC restrictions in 2020? Yes
Will the courts continue to support FSC rights
If the Department proceeds with restrictions to FSC fisheries, will FN's likely continue to take position that no recreational fisheries can proceed if FSC rights are restricted? Yes
Would FN's consider alternative measures such as Avoidance and MSF as measures that do not infringe upon their FSC rights based fisheries? Unknown
Considering all this, it seems to me that our future fishery depends on being able to accomplish some core actions:
1. Achieve MSF as a management option that delivers confidence impacts to stocks of concern are acceptably low or insignificant.
2. Achieve Avoidance as a management option that is supported by FN's and DFO. This will require more support than we have achieve to date from within the Recreational sector in supplying CWT (hatchery heads), DNA sampling, Avid Angler catch logs and Guide/Lodge Logbooks - without robust data it is somewhat more challenging to determine areas and times where stocks of concern are not encountered, and where they are encountered where/when can you put in place fishery restrictions that reduce impacts to stocks of concern to acceptably low incidence.
3. Reach a level of working relationship with FN's where we can find ways to achieve FSC fisheries that do not impact stocks of concern, and also a level of trust and confidence in measures such as MSF and Avoidance as effective in not impacting FSC rights based fisheries.
