warm water bubble??

Discussion in '2015 Saltwater Fishing Reports' started by reelfast, Aug 29, 2014.

  1. reelfast

    reelfast Active Member

    just read in the Seattle paper that a 'warm water bubble' exists just off shore which is forcing 90% of the sockeye to detour down Johnstone strait. I also have to wonder if that is also the reason general salmon season has been so slow for the majority of us. have you folks read anything along these lines??

    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 29, 2014
  2. Seafever

    Seafever Well-Known Member

    If you read IronNoggin's post:-

    The water off WCVI was warm except for a large pool of colder inshore water near Esperanza. They concentrated their trolling in that area and did quite well because the fish were there.

    They tried south of that and north and did not do very well.

    It was noted that the USA fish seemed to be running the 100 fathom contour (600ft deep) and heading right on through without hanging around.

    It was said that the fish counter mechanisms on the Columbia are showing very good returns.

    So they were there........but just very deep and not loitering.
  3. Rum Buddies

    Rum Buddies Active Member

    who says climate change is real eh!
  4. fogged in

    fogged in Well-Known Member

    agreed climate change is a fact, however see the story below

    Several factors could be behind why sockeye salmon decided to head for the Johnstone Strait this summer, but researchers are looking closely at an area of ocean water off the coast that is about 3 degrees Celsius warmer than normal. Nick Bond, a research scientist for the University of Washington, refers to this area as a "warm blob" that developed last winter as the Pacific Northwest went through a period of unusually quiet weather. Last winter, the area had stretches of cool, windless and foggy days.

    The calm weather meant the ocean didn't do its usual churning of deeper, colder water up to the surface. With this pattern continuing into summer, the warm area has persisted. Sockeye salmon prefer cooler water, which may be why most of the run went north around Vancouver Island.

    Bond believes the development of the warm blob is not a direct result of global warming but more of a fluke. Looking back at past data, there has been the occasional season when a cold area has developed off the coast, sending the sockeye salmon south of Vancouver Island into U.S. waters.

    This season's event is giving scientists a chance to learn what impact a warmer ocean would have on this area's ecosystem, giving them more information to make better predictions.

    Given the current weather models, Bond said the warm blob could be around for a while, possibly well into 2015. There's also the potential of El Nino developing later this year, bringing warm water to the area. If that's the case, it could be disruptive for next year's pink salmon run as well.
  5. Seafever

    Seafever Well-Known Member

    Sporadic El Nino predictions were made early on for this year...so looks like it came true to some extent.

    El Ninos and La Ninas have been going on for centuries, long before "climate change".
  6. reelfast

    reelfast Active Member

    it also seems as though we have had way more fog and wind this summer. I am getting to the point of pulling the boat out of the water and hanging it up I am so disgusted.
  7. Rum Buddies

    Rum Buddies Active Member

    It seems like they're saying that because winter was so mild it didn't churn up the water enough to cool it down like usual -- sounds like climate change to me, but I'm not scientist. I do see the guy says he doesn't believe it's related though... Just a fluke.

    While I understand El nino is a natural phenomenon the article doesn't say the "blob" was created by El Nino, it just says an El Nino could exasperate the situation.
  8. reelfast

    reelfast Active Member

    I received this from a friend this afternoon after I sent him the Times article:


    They are about three months too late to notice this phenomena I have been dealing with the El Nino situation accordingly all summer. They are very wrong, however, about the fish. The sockeye run didn't just go around, it collapsed due to the E Nino situation and may barely get to 1/3 of the spring projections. That early coho run to the Quilcene Hatchery that is used as an indicator coastwide is already too late to be just late. The hatchery will be lucky to get to 30% of normal (they are currently at about 25% of normal) so they are holding every hen of that genetically unique group.
    As for the fish going deep, that is exactly what the chinook did earlier. The commercial trollers that trolled at 350 feet or deeper had one of their best years ever. This is a classic El Nino pattern (this will be my 11th so not my first rodeo). Very few coho are adaptable enough to go deep or range far enough to get past the El Nino conditions so I am expecting some very poor fall fishing overall for hook nose silvers. The coho that stayed in the SJDF all summer as well as in Puget Sound will come back as normal, of course.
    Sadly, the 2015 coho and humpy runs are trashed as well as the 2017 and 2018 chinook runs so I will be making business decisions this winter accordingly.
    A couple weeks back I identified an unknown shark for a commercial troller who had caught it near Tatoosh. It was a mako. It has been a long time since I have seen one up here and that doesn't bode well. I am waiting for the report of a hammerhead seen if the warm water gets close to shore again in the next couple weeks. Striped marlin have already been seen offshore.
  9. truant

    truant Member

    What does your friend do? Marine biologist?

    He is right about the chinook going deep. They did this ten to fifteen years ago. Water was warm close to shore (62 degrees) and colder outside but mixed with bands of warm. No one was catching salmon except the trollers. We were at LaPush and I blocked a troller coming down the dock and asked him, "Where are they?". His answer was that they were 24 miles out and 400' down on the bottom. My reply was, "Well that put's me out of the game doesn't it."

    I visited the place the troller was referring to this summer with 20# downrigger balls, high speed riggers and commercial spoons. The bigger chinook were there. I think they bi-passed a lot of their usual spots. I agree with your friend.
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 29, 2014

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