triplenickel
Well-Known Member
How about climate change vs what the majority wants? Accept responsibility people, they aren't producing for the fun of it.
'Warm blob' of water in Pacific Ocean could hurt salmon
- Thread starter agentaqua
- Start date
How about climate change vs what the majority wants? Accept responsibility people, they aren't producing for the fun of it.
OldBlackDog
Well-Known Member
This this might answer it for you.
[h=1]Hearing: President’s UN climate pledge[/h]by Judith Curry
The House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technology Hearing on the President’s UN Climate Pledge has now concluded.
Here is the [link] for the hearing, which includes link to all of the testimonies and also the webcast.
My testimony can also be downloaded here [House science testimony apr 15 final]. Here is the content of my verbal testimony:
The central issue in the scientific debate on climate change is the extent to which the recent (and future) warming is caused by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions versus natural climate variability that are caused by variations from the sun, volcanic eruptions, and large-scale ocean circulations.
Recent data and research supports the importance of natural climate variability and calls into question the conclusion that humans are the dominant cause of recent climate change. This includes
We have made some questionable choices in defining the problem of climate change and its solution:
The wickedness of the climate change problem provides much scope for disagreement among reasonable and intelligent people. Effectively responding to the possible threats from a warmer climate is made very difficult by the deep uncertainties surrounding the risks both from the problem and the proposed solutions.
The articulation of a preferred policy option in the early 1990’s by the United Nations has marginalized research on broader issues surrounding climate variability and change and has stifled the development of a broader range of policy options.
We need to push the reset button in our deliberations about how we should respond to climate change.
JC comments
I’m at the airport with a slow internet connection so I’m keeping this short.
The testimonies of Harburg and Thorning are both quite good, I encourage to read them.
I thought the Hearing went well. I got asked more questions than usual, but none of the questions were surprising. One of the Democrats, Rep Beyer, seemed to be confused by my testimony.
Overall, I’m pleased, I look forward to comments on the Hearing and my testimony.
[h=1]Hearing: President’s UN climate pledge[/h]by Judith Curry
The House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technology Hearing on the President’s UN Climate Pledge has now concluded.
Here is the [link] for the hearing, which includes link to all of the testimonies and also the webcast.
My testimony can also be downloaded here [House science testimony apr 15 final]. Here is the content of my verbal testimony:
The central issue in the scientific debate on climate change is the extent to which the recent (and future) warming is caused by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions versus natural climate variability that are caused by variations from the sun, volcanic eruptions, and large-scale ocean circulations.
Recent data and research supports the importance of natural climate variability and calls into question the conclusion that humans are the dominant cause of recent climate change. This includes
- The slow down in global warming since 1998
- Reduced estimates of the sensitivity of climate to carbon dioxide
- Climate models that are predicting much more warming than has been observed so far in the 21[SUP]st[/SUP] century
We have made some questionable choices in defining the problem of climate change and its solution:
- The definition of ‘dangerous’ climate change is ambiguous, and hypothesized catastrophic tipping points are regarded as very or extremely unlikely in the 21[SUP]st [/SUP]century
- Efforts to link dangerous impacts of extreme weather events to human-caused warming are misleading and unsupported by evidence.
- Climate change is a ‘wicked problem’ and ill-suited to a ‘command and control’ solution
- It has been estimated that the U.S. national commitments to the UN to reduce emissions by 28% will prevent three hundredths of a degree centigrade in warming by 2100.
The wickedness of the climate change problem provides much scope for disagreement among reasonable and intelligent people. Effectively responding to the possible threats from a warmer climate is made very difficult by the deep uncertainties surrounding the risks both from the problem and the proposed solutions.
The articulation of a preferred policy option in the early 1990’s by the United Nations has marginalized research on broader issues surrounding climate variability and change and has stifled the development of a broader range of policy options.
We need to push the reset button in our deliberations about how we should respond to climate change.
- We should expand the frameworks for thinking about climate policy and provide a wider choice of options in addressing the risks from climate change.
- As an example of alternative options, pragmatic solutions have been proposed based on efforts to accelerate energy innovation, build resilience to extreme weather, and pursue no regrets pollution reduction Each of these measures has justifications independent of their benefits for climate mitigation and adaptation.
- Robust policy options that can be justified by associated policy reasons whether or not human caused climate change is dangerous avoids the hubris of pretending to know what will happen with the 21[SUP]st[/SUP] century climate.
JC comments
I’m at the airport with a slow internet connection so I’m keeping this short.
The testimonies of Harburg and Thorning are both quite good, I encourage to read them.
I thought the Hearing went well. I got asked more questions than usual, but none of the questions were surprising. One of the Democrats, Rep Beyer, seemed to be confused by my testimony.
Overall, I’m pleased, I look forward to comments on the Hearing and my testimony.
searun
Well-Known Member
Sorry to hijack your climate change thread, but if this is about the warm blob and how it may impact our fishery there are some real concerns that our outbound smolts wont encounter the right ocean conditions. Not to mention some nasty invasive species like Mackerel. Agree Kelly, rather interesting to see the pollock fishery is being reduced due to by-catch - supports the concerns DFO are expressing with the Alaskan outlook on the fishery. They want to boost up the AI (Abundance Index) to allow for higher chinook ER (exploitation rate). We really have to stop this from happening or they will over-fish our chinook like they did last year.
Perhaps a side benefit will be some closer tuna fishing! Always a bright side.
Perhaps a side benefit will be some closer tuna fishing! Always a bright side.
Wiseguy
Member
Yes. I cannot agree more.
http://www.ktuu.com/news/nation/warm-pacific-water-threatens-marine-life/32501268
Warm Pacific water threatens marine life
Scientists have been studying 'The Blob' for months
By Steve Almasy, Dave Hennen and Jennifer Gray CNN
POSTED: 10:02 PM AKDT Apr 21, 2015 UPDATED: 10:34 AM AKDT Apr 22, 2015
Pacific Ocean 'blob' concerns scientists
(CNN) -
Marine life seen swimming in unusual places. Water temperatures warmer than they should be. No snow where there should be feet of it.
Some scientists are saying "The Blob" could be playing a factor.
As monikers go, the blob doesn't sound very worrisome.
But if you're a salmon fisherman in Washington or a California resident hoping to see the end of the drought, the blob could become an enemy of top concern.
A University of Washington climate scientist and his associates have been studying the blob -- a huge area of unusually warm water in the Pacific -- for months.
"In the fall of 2013 and early 2014 we started to notice a big, almost circular mass of water that just didn't cool off as much as it usually did, so by spring of 2014 it was warmer than we had ever seen it for that time of year," said Nick Bond, who works at the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean in Seattle, Washington.
Bond, who gave the blob its name, said it was 1,000 miles long, 1,000 miles wide and 100 yards deep in 2014 -- and it has grown this year.
And it's not the only one; there are two others that emerged in 2014, Nate Mantua of the Southwest Fisheries Science Center -- part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) -- said in September. One is in the Bering Sea and the other is off the coast of Southern California.
Waters in the blob have been warmer by about 5.5 degrees, a significant rise.
Persistent pressure
A recent set of studies published in Geophysical Research Letters by Bond's group points to a high-pressure ridge over the West Coast that has calmed ocean waters for two winters. The result was more heat staying in the water because storms didn't kick up and help cool the surface water.
"The warmer temperatures we see now aren't due to more heating, but less winter cooling," a recent news release from the University of Washington announcing the studies said. The university has worked with NOAA on the research.
According to New Scientist magazine, some marine species are exploring the warmer waters, leading some fish to migrate hundreds of miles from their normal habitats.
The magazine cited fisherman and wildlife officials in Alaska who have seen skipjack tuna and thresher sharks.
Pygmy killer whales have been spotted off the coast of Washington.
"I've never seen some of these species here before," Bill Peterson of the Northwest Fisheries Science Center in Seattle told the New Scientist.
And he was worried about the adult Pacific salmon that normally feed on tiny crustaceans and other food sources that are not around in the same numbers off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.
"They had nothing to eat," he told the magazine of last year's conditions in the blob. It appears that food has moved to cooler waters.
In January, Bond told the Chinook Observer in Long Beach, Washington, that his concern is for very young salmon that are still upstream.
"In particular, the year class that would be going to sea next spring," he said.
NOAA said in a news release last month that California sea lion pups have been found extremely underweight and dying, possibly because of an ocean with fewer things to eat.
"We have been seeing emaciated or dehydrated sea lions show up on beaches," Justin Greenman, assistant stranding coordinator for NOAA on the West Coast, told CNN.
The numbers are overwhelming facilities that care for the stranded sea lions, most of whom are pups, local officials said.
Warmer water, less snow
The blob also is affecting life on land. For the past few years, that persistent ridge of high pressure has kept the West dry and warm, exacerbating the drought in California, Oregon and Washington.
One of the primary problems is small snow accumulation in the mountains.
In early April, officials measured the snowpack in California at a time when it should be the highest. This year it hit an all-time low at 1.4 inches of water content in the snow, just 5% of the annual average. The previous low for April 1 had been 25% in 1977 and 2014. (pdf)
Gov. Jerry Brown, in announcing water restrictions the same day, stood on a patch of dry, brown grass in the Sierra Nevada mountains that is usually blanketed by up to 5 feet of snow.
The heat has caused rising air, which can lead to conditions that produce more thunderstorms. With warmer air in California, areas at higher elevations that usually see snow have seen rain instead. That has led to the lower snowpack and helped compound the drought. The storms also mean more lightning and more wildfires.
And the blob affects people on other areas of the country.
That same persistent jet stream pattern has allowed cold air to spill into much of the Midwest and East.
This stuck pattern has led to the record cold and snow in the Midwest and Northeast over the last two seasons with record snows we have seen in Boston and Detroit, and the most snow we have seen in decades for cities such as Chicago.
Still a mystery
The weather pattern is confusing the experts.
There are some that think it might be a Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a long-lasting El Nino-like pattern in the Pacific.
Dennis Hartmann, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Washington, doesn't believe the answer is clear.
"I don't think we know ..." he said in the university's news release. "Maybe it will go away quickly and we won't talk about it anymore, but if it persists for a third year, then we'll know something really unusual is going on."
Copyright 2015 by CNN NewSource. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Warm Pacific water threatens marine life
Scientists have been studying 'The Blob' for months
By Steve Almasy, Dave Hennen and Jennifer Gray CNN
POSTED: 10:02 PM AKDT Apr 21, 2015 UPDATED: 10:34 AM AKDT Apr 22, 2015
Pacific Ocean 'blob' concerns scientists
(CNN) -
Marine life seen swimming in unusual places. Water temperatures warmer than they should be. No snow where there should be feet of it.
Some scientists are saying "The Blob" could be playing a factor.
As monikers go, the blob doesn't sound very worrisome.
But if you're a salmon fisherman in Washington or a California resident hoping to see the end of the drought, the blob could become an enemy of top concern.
A University of Washington climate scientist and his associates have been studying the blob -- a huge area of unusually warm water in the Pacific -- for months.
"In the fall of 2013 and early 2014 we started to notice a big, almost circular mass of water that just didn't cool off as much as it usually did, so by spring of 2014 it was warmer than we had ever seen it for that time of year," said Nick Bond, who works at the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean in Seattle, Washington.
Bond, who gave the blob its name, said it was 1,000 miles long, 1,000 miles wide and 100 yards deep in 2014 -- and it has grown this year.
And it's not the only one; there are two others that emerged in 2014, Nate Mantua of the Southwest Fisheries Science Center -- part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) -- said in September. One is in the Bering Sea and the other is off the coast of Southern California.
Waters in the blob have been warmer by about 5.5 degrees, a significant rise.
Persistent pressure
A recent set of studies published in Geophysical Research Letters by Bond's group points to a high-pressure ridge over the West Coast that has calmed ocean waters for two winters. The result was more heat staying in the water because storms didn't kick up and help cool the surface water.
"The warmer temperatures we see now aren't due to more heating, but less winter cooling," a recent news release from the University of Washington announcing the studies said. The university has worked with NOAA on the research.
According to New Scientist magazine, some marine species are exploring the warmer waters, leading some fish to migrate hundreds of miles from their normal habitats.
The magazine cited fisherman and wildlife officials in Alaska who have seen skipjack tuna and thresher sharks.
Pygmy killer whales have been spotted off the coast of Washington.
"I've never seen some of these species here before," Bill Peterson of the Northwest Fisheries Science Center in Seattle told the New Scientist.
And he was worried about the adult Pacific salmon that normally feed on tiny crustaceans and other food sources that are not around in the same numbers off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.
"They had nothing to eat," he told the magazine of last year's conditions in the blob. It appears that food has moved to cooler waters.
In January, Bond told the Chinook Observer in Long Beach, Washington, that his concern is for very young salmon that are still upstream.
"In particular, the year class that would be going to sea next spring," he said.
NOAA said in a news release last month that California sea lion pups have been found extremely underweight and dying, possibly because of an ocean with fewer things to eat.
"We have been seeing emaciated or dehydrated sea lions show up on beaches," Justin Greenman, assistant stranding coordinator for NOAA on the West Coast, told CNN.
The numbers are overwhelming facilities that care for the stranded sea lions, most of whom are pups, local officials said.
Warmer water, less snow
The blob also is affecting life on land. For the past few years, that persistent ridge of high pressure has kept the West dry and warm, exacerbating the drought in California, Oregon and Washington.
One of the primary problems is small snow accumulation in the mountains.
In early April, officials measured the snowpack in California at a time when it should be the highest. This year it hit an all-time low at 1.4 inches of water content in the snow, just 5% of the annual average. The previous low for April 1 had been 25% in 1977 and 2014. (pdf)
Gov. Jerry Brown, in announcing water restrictions the same day, stood on a patch of dry, brown grass in the Sierra Nevada mountains that is usually blanketed by up to 5 feet of snow.
The heat has caused rising air, which can lead to conditions that produce more thunderstorms. With warmer air in California, areas at higher elevations that usually see snow have seen rain instead. That has led to the lower snowpack and helped compound the drought. The storms also mean more lightning and more wildfires.
And the blob affects people on other areas of the country.
That same persistent jet stream pattern has allowed cold air to spill into much of the Midwest and East.
This stuck pattern has led to the record cold and snow in the Midwest and Northeast over the last two seasons with record snows we have seen in Boston and Detroit, and the most snow we have seen in decades for cities such as Chicago.
Still a mystery
The weather pattern is confusing the experts.
There are some that think it might be a Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a long-lasting El Nino-like pattern in the Pacific.
Dennis Hartmann, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Washington, doesn't believe the answer is clear.
"I don't think we know ..." he said in the university's news release. "Maybe it will go away quickly and we won't talk about it anymore, but if it persists for a third year, then we'll know something really unusual is going on."
Copyright 2015 by CNN NewSource. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...phase-and-the-consequences-could-be-dramatic/
Energy and Environment
The Pacific Ocean may have entered a new warm phase — and the consequences could be dramatic
By Chris Mooney April 10
NASA GOES PROJECT via AFP
Two new studies http://news.agu.org/press-release/warm-blob-in-pacific-ocean-linked-to-weird-weather-across-the-u-s/ have just hit about the “warm blob” in the northeast Pacific ocean — a 2 degree C or more temperature anomaly that began in the winter of 2013-2014 in the Gulf of Alaska and later expanded. Scientists have been astonished at the extent and especially the long-lasting nature of the warmth, with one NOAA researcher saying, “when you see something like this that’s totally new you have opportunities to learn things you were never expecting.”
The Post’s Sarah Kaplan has covered some of the most immediate consequences of the “blob,” such as weird appearances of strange marine species more typical of warm water, like ocean sunfish, off the Alaskan coast. She also notes that the blob may be linked to the California drought and other odd weather phenomena.
[In the red: West coast waters are warmest in decades — what does it mean for winter?]
That’s plenty dramatic enough — but in truth, there is a great deal more to say about what this phenomenon may mean in a global climate context.
You see, the 2013-2014 “blob” was just the beginning. In the summer of 2014, warm water also showed up off the California coast. And then, in the fall of last year, “a major change in the wind and weather pattern between Hawaii and the West Coast caused the two warm blobs to merge and expand to fill the entire northeast Pacific Ocean,” says Nate Mantua of NOAA’s Southwest Fisheries Science Center, a co-author of one of the new studies, by e-mail.
According to Mantua, the emergence of the new and consolidated “blob” may be a very significant development with global consequences. That’s because it may relate to a much larger pattern of ocean temperatures called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO. A shift in this oscillation, in turn, may be a sign that the planet is on the verge of getting warmer, some scientists say.
“People are seeing a lot of ecological impacts related to this warm water, and people are looking for the story, why is this happening, what is it?” Mantua says. “And it, to me, looks like just an extreme shift into the warm state of the PDO.”
The PDO is kind of like a far more long-term version of the much better known El Niño-La Niña cycle. It is not thought to be related to global warming — rather, it is believed to be the result of “natural internal variability” in the climate system.
The oscillation has a positive phase and negative phase. And according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, we have been in a positive phase for nine months straight, dating back to July 2014. Here’s a visualization of the PDO cycle from the National Climatic Data Center — and note the uptick at the far right:
NOAA/National Climatic Data Center
Mantua also keeps an index of the PDO, and he says that at the moment, “my version has much more extreme positive values than theirs has.” But generally, the two indices are telling the same story, he says.
“In 2014 it went from mostly negative values to a very strong expression of the warm phase, and that’s present today,” Mantua says.
If the PDO is not only positive but is going to stay that way, it could be a big deal. Here’s why: Some scientists think a persistent cool phase of the PDO cycle may be a key part of the reason why there has been a much discussed “slowdown” of global surface warming recently. And if they’re right about that, then with the end of the cool phase, we may also see an end to any global warming “hiatus.”
[The global warming slowdown is real — but that’s no reason to question climate science]
The reason is the way the PDO works. While any such planetary scale wobble has multiple ramifications, one of them is the way it influences the distribution of heat between the ocean and the atmosphere.
“When you’re in a cool phase, heat from the atmosphere gets buried in the ocean,” says John Abraham, a climate scientist at the University of St. Thomas in Minnesota. “When you’re in a warm phase, that heat comes out. And we’ve just switched from a cool to a warm phase.”
Indeed, Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo, two climate researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., have argued that the PDO helps explain the alleged global warming “pause” through a mechanism of heat sinking deep down into the Pacific:
The picture emerging is one where the positive phase of the PDO from 1976 to 1998 enhanced the surface warming somewhat by reducing the amount of heat sequestered by the deep ocean, while the negative phase of the PDO is one where more heat gets deposited at greater depths, contributing to the overall warming of the oceans but cooling the surface somewhat.
The alleged “pause,” say Trenberth and Fasullo, coincided with a negative phase of the PDO in the 2000s.
That’s why Trenberth has further argued that the new apparent shift back into the PDO’s positive phase may mark the beginning of a temperature ramp-up. As he explains by e-mail:
Instead of thinking of global warming as providing a steady relentless climb in global temperatures, one should think of it more as an up staircase. So we may well have gone up the next step, and then we vary up and down a bit but around a whole new level, never to go back down to previous lows. The odds are quite good that this is what has happened.
A study recently published in Science http://www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6225/988.abstract made a similar point, highlighting that a “sharply negative-trending” Pacific oscillation had helped to undermine global warming of late. But as it added, “Given the pattern of past historical variation, this trend will likely reverse with internal variability instead, adding to anthropogenic warming in the coming decades.”
Granted, there’s ample reason for caution here. The PDO has only been known about since the year 1997, when scientists studying booming salmon runs in Alaska identified the phenomenon as part of a much more vast global pattern. Mantua, the lead author of the original PDO paper, has continued to study the matter and emphasizes that there’s still a lot we don’t know about the cycle, especially when it comes to forecasting its future states.
“The mechanisms that really drive its evolution don’t seem to have a lot of predictability beyond about a year,” he says.
Braddock Linsley, a scientist at Columbia’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory who has been studying the southern hemisphere ramifications of the PDO, similarly warns that it is “not like a clock.” While nominally a 20-or-so year cycle, as you can see from the figure above, the PDO doesn’t play by strict rules.
So in sum — there’s some oddness happening in the Pacific right now, including very warm water off the U.S. coast and what looks like a shift in the PDO. And some scientists think this could lead to a step-change upwards for global warming, and the end of the so-called pause or slowdown. But there’s also plenty of uncertainty; Trenberth, who told the climate blogger Joe Romm recently that he thought we were in for a new uptick in temperatures, also commented there that he was “sticking my neck out.”
So for now, I’ll just leave you with an indisputable point — namely, the Pacific Ocean is sublimely gigantic, so it’s no surprise that what happens there can have ramifications everywhere. And scientists are now examining those changes very closely indeed — because they know how much they might matter.
More in Energy & Environment:
Scientists confirm that the Arctic could become a major new source of carbon emissions
What the Shell mega deal says about the planet’s future
What will happen after people stop ignoring the evidence on climate change
Energy and Environment
The Pacific Ocean may have entered a new warm phase — and the consequences could be dramatic
By Chris Mooney April 10
NASA GOES PROJECT via AFP
Two new studies http://news.agu.org/press-release/warm-blob-in-pacific-ocean-linked-to-weird-weather-across-the-u-s/ have just hit about the “warm blob” in the northeast Pacific ocean — a 2 degree C or more temperature anomaly that began in the winter of 2013-2014 in the Gulf of Alaska and later expanded. Scientists have been astonished at the extent and especially the long-lasting nature of the warmth, with one NOAA researcher saying, “when you see something like this that’s totally new you have opportunities to learn things you were never expecting.”
The Post’s Sarah Kaplan has covered some of the most immediate consequences of the “blob,” such as weird appearances of strange marine species more typical of warm water, like ocean sunfish, off the Alaskan coast. She also notes that the blob may be linked to the California drought and other odd weather phenomena.
[In the red: West coast waters are warmest in decades — what does it mean for winter?]
That’s plenty dramatic enough — but in truth, there is a great deal more to say about what this phenomenon may mean in a global climate context.
You see, the 2013-2014 “blob” was just the beginning. In the summer of 2014, warm water also showed up off the California coast. And then, in the fall of last year, “a major change in the wind and weather pattern between Hawaii and the West Coast caused the two warm blobs to merge and expand to fill the entire northeast Pacific Ocean,” says Nate Mantua of NOAA’s Southwest Fisheries Science Center, a co-author of one of the new studies, by e-mail.
According to Mantua, the emergence of the new and consolidated “blob” may be a very significant development with global consequences. That’s because it may relate to a much larger pattern of ocean temperatures called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO. A shift in this oscillation, in turn, may be a sign that the planet is on the verge of getting warmer, some scientists say.
“People are seeing a lot of ecological impacts related to this warm water, and people are looking for the story, why is this happening, what is it?” Mantua says. “And it, to me, looks like just an extreme shift into the warm state of the PDO.”
The PDO is kind of like a far more long-term version of the much better known El Niño-La Niña cycle. It is not thought to be related to global warming — rather, it is believed to be the result of “natural internal variability” in the climate system.
The oscillation has a positive phase and negative phase. And according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, we have been in a positive phase for nine months straight, dating back to July 2014. Here’s a visualization of the PDO cycle from the National Climatic Data Center — and note the uptick at the far right:
NOAA/National Climatic Data Center
Mantua also keeps an index of the PDO, and he says that at the moment, “my version has much more extreme positive values than theirs has.” But generally, the two indices are telling the same story, he says.
“In 2014 it went from mostly negative values to a very strong expression of the warm phase, and that’s present today,” Mantua says.
If the PDO is not only positive but is going to stay that way, it could be a big deal. Here’s why: Some scientists think a persistent cool phase of the PDO cycle may be a key part of the reason why there has been a much discussed “slowdown” of global surface warming recently. And if they’re right about that, then with the end of the cool phase, we may also see an end to any global warming “hiatus.”
[The global warming slowdown is real — but that’s no reason to question climate science]
The reason is the way the PDO works. While any such planetary scale wobble has multiple ramifications, one of them is the way it influences the distribution of heat between the ocean and the atmosphere.
“When you’re in a cool phase, heat from the atmosphere gets buried in the ocean,” says John Abraham, a climate scientist at the University of St. Thomas in Minnesota. “When you’re in a warm phase, that heat comes out. And we’ve just switched from a cool to a warm phase.”
Indeed, Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo, two climate researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., have argued that the PDO helps explain the alleged global warming “pause” through a mechanism of heat sinking deep down into the Pacific:
The picture emerging is one where the positive phase of the PDO from 1976 to 1998 enhanced the surface warming somewhat by reducing the amount of heat sequestered by the deep ocean, while the negative phase of the PDO is one where more heat gets deposited at greater depths, contributing to the overall warming of the oceans but cooling the surface somewhat.
The alleged “pause,” say Trenberth and Fasullo, coincided with a negative phase of the PDO in the 2000s.
That’s why Trenberth has further argued that the new apparent shift back into the PDO’s positive phase may mark the beginning of a temperature ramp-up. As he explains by e-mail:
Instead of thinking of global warming as providing a steady relentless climb in global temperatures, one should think of it more as an up staircase. So we may well have gone up the next step, and then we vary up and down a bit but around a whole new level, never to go back down to previous lows. The odds are quite good that this is what has happened.
A study recently published in Science http://www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6225/988.abstract made a similar point, highlighting that a “sharply negative-trending” Pacific oscillation had helped to undermine global warming of late. But as it added, “Given the pattern of past historical variation, this trend will likely reverse with internal variability instead, adding to anthropogenic warming in the coming decades.”
Granted, there’s ample reason for caution here. The PDO has only been known about since the year 1997, when scientists studying booming salmon runs in Alaska identified the phenomenon as part of a much more vast global pattern. Mantua, the lead author of the original PDO paper, has continued to study the matter and emphasizes that there’s still a lot we don’t know about the cycle, especially when it comes to forecasting its future states.
“The mechanisms that really drive its evolution don’t seem to have a lot of predictability beyond about a year,” he says.
Braddock Linsley, a scientist at Columbia’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory who has been studying the southern hemisphere ramifications of the PDO, similarly warns that it is “not like a clock.” While nominally a 20-or-so year cycle, as you can see from the figure above, the PDO doesn’t play by strict rules.
So in sum — there’s some oddness happening in the Pacific right now, including very warm water off the U.S. coast and what looks like a shift in the PDO. And some scientists think this could lead to a step-change upwards for global warming, and the end of the so-called pause or slowdown. But there’s also plenty of uncertainty; Trenberth, who told the climate blogger Joe Romm recently that he thought we were in for a new uptick in temperatures, also commented there that he was “sticking my neck out.”
So for now, I’ll just leave you with an indisputable point — namely, the Pacific Ocean is sublimely gigantic, so it’s no surprise that what happens there can have ramifications everywhere. And scientists are now examining those changes very closely indeed — because they know how much they might matter.
More in Energy & Environment:
Scientists confirm that the Arctic could become a major new source of carbon emissions
What the Shell mega deal says about the planet’s future
What will happen after people stop ignoring the evidence on climate change
GLG
Well-Known Member
Part 2 of "A Changing Tide" more on the Blob
This is could have profound effect on our salmon fishing.
http://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=577220&binId=1.1180928&playlistPageNum=1
This is could have profound effect on our salmon fishing.
http://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=577220&binId=1.1180928&playlistPageNum=1
Charter Tofino
Well-Known Member
Here are my thoughts from another post. A bit of a repetition.
I think it's worth noting that abnormal patterns and oscillations such as our recent (winter 2013-present) warm water event are naturally occurring. A majority of scientists argue that the current warm water influx in the Eastern Pacific and historical warming trends caused by global warming are separate issues.
That’s not to say they’re unrelated. This warm water “blob” event is giving us insight into what to potentially expect in the coming decades. Non-native species moving in, native species struggling and continental weather changes. If the pattern continues to hold for another year or two we could be seeing the a short term preview of the damage global warming can cause.
I think it's worth noting that abnormal patterns and oscillations such as our recent (winter 2013-present) warm water event are naturally occurring. A majority of scientists argue that the current warm water influx in the Eastern Pacific and historical warming trends caused by global warming are separate issues.
That’s not to say they’re unrelated. This warm water “blob” event is giving us insight into what to potentially expect in the coming decades. Non-native species moving in, native species struggling and continental weather changes. If the pattern continues to hold for another year or two we could be seeing the a short term preview of the damage global warming can cause.
"banger17" for forum 'Guest Administrator"
Agree 100% I'm guessing the percentage of members that have the time to read past the first couple sentences, and decipher the usually lengthy 'cut and paste', is under 10%.
Yet, the total 'cut and pastes' take up around 90% of the entire forum. It's forum pollution unless the poster provides 'feedback and opinion'. How about posting a 'link', with your thoughts and feedback added. Then it is up to the member to read on any further if it interests them, and doesn't take up miles of forum real estate. I know I'm dreaming but I feel better now.
Not sure about the WCVI and the blob but I'm guessing this year will provide a much larger average size Chinook on ECVI than last year. Call it a hunch.
GLG
Well-Known Member
Guy's watch the video on post # 49 it sums up what we know at this point.
I can tell you one thing..... it's not good news when DFO tells us they don't know what to expect. A couple of reports that should come out soon are a new State of the Ocean and the 2015 salmon outlook. What should interest most folks is the 2015 salmon outlook. Here is the preliminary (Nov 2014) report for 2015.
http://www.sportfishing.bc.ca/docs/dfo_preliminary_2015_salmon_outlook_-_2014.pdf
It might be a good year for PA sockeye and if I recall Nootka will be good. Others I don't know. The wild card is this Blob... If there is no food for the birds in this blob then there is no food for the fish. They may move further north to find food but I don't know. I think that searun posted that this may be the case. Salmon are amazing things and can go along time without food but they must live off of their reserves. The problem with that is they wont have much left for when the hit the fresh and ready to spawn. The other thing we watch is when the smolts go out to sea. If they have poor ocean conditions (no food / high temp) they don't do well and come back as less total adults in the future. Is this man made or natural? We don't know but DFO is telling us that it has never been seen before and is out side of any of there ability to tell us, with any confidence, what to expect. What can we do? The only thing that I can think of is to make an effort to use less water so that in the fall there is something left for the salmon in the river. With the extremely low snow pack this will be an issue if we have a long hot and dry summer. Other then that we may want to think about the pressure we put on some stocks clearly some are going to be fine but others... not so much. I expect we will start getting more information as the year progresses. Test fishery and what happens in Alaska can give us a peak into the future. Keep your fingers crossed....
I can tell you one thing..... it's not good news when DFO tells us they don't know what to expect. A couple of reports that should come out soon are a new State of the Ocean and the 2015 salmon outlook. What should interest most folks is the 2015 salmon outlook. Here is the preliminary (Nov 2014) report for 2015.
http://www.sportfishing.bc.ca/docs/dfo_preliminary_2015_salmon_outlook_-_2014.pdf
It might be a good year for PA sockeye and if I recall Nootka will be good. Others I don't know. The wild card is this Blob... If there is no food for the birds in this blob then there is no food for the fish. They may move further north to find food but I don't know. I think that searun posted that this may be the case. Salmon are amazing things and can go along time without food but they must live off of their reserves. The problem with that is they wont have much left for when the hit the fresh and ready to spawn. The other thing we watch is when the smolts go out to sea. If they have poor ocean conditions (no food / high temp) they don't do well and come back as less total adults in the future. Is this man made or natural? We don't know but DFO is telling us that it has never been seen before and is out side of any of there ability to tell us, with any confidence, what to expect. What can we do? The only thing that I can think of is to make an effort to use less water so that in the fall there is something left for the salmon in the river. With the extremely low snow pack this will be an issue if we have a long hot and dry summer. Other then that we may want to think about the pressure we put on some stocks clearly some are going to be fine but others... not so much. I expect we will start getting more information as the year progresses. Test fishery and what happens in Alaska can give us a peak into the future. Keep your fingers crossed....
GLG
Well-Known Member
California is prone to droughts, and the historic record points to numerous long and severe dry spells. The current drought is exceptional. A recent tree ring study shows no comparable dry spell in the past 1,200 years.
Climate change will not necessarily bring entirely new kinds of events: droughts, rainstorms, and tropical storms are not first-ever events. Rather, with the warming climate, such familiar events gradually become more intense and damaging. Current weather events now bear the burdens of a changed global atmosphere.
The California drought is part of a persistent atmospheric pattern that is also behind the extreme winter events in eastern North America in recent years – known to scientists as the “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge” over Alaska and Canada, and as the “Terribly Tenacious Trough” dipping into the eastern U.S.
This pattern may be enhancing ocean heating in the northeastern Pacific, a novel pattern scientists have dubbed “the Blob.” And it has consequences beyond just impacts on western industry and agriculture, extending to fisheries and the food chain itself.
[R6RaAYA9OMA]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6RaAYA9OMA
Climate change will not necessarily bring entirely new kinds of events: droughts, rainstorms, and tropical storms are not first-ever events. Rather, with the warming climate, such familiar events gradually become more intense and damaging. Current weather events now bear the burdens of a changed global atmosphere.
The California drought is part of a persistent atmospheric pattern that is also behind the extreme winter events in eastern North America in recent years – known to scientists as the “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge” over Alaska and Canada, and as the “Terribly Tenacious Trough” dipping into the eastern U.S.
This pattern may be enhancing ocean heating in the northeastern Pacific, a novel pattern scientists have dubbed “the Blob.” And it has consequences beyond just impacts on western industry and agriculture, extending to fisheries and the food chain itself.
[R6RaAYA9OMA]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6RaAYA9OMA
http://www.alaskapublic.org/2015/05..._campaign=Feed:+aprn-news+(APRN:+Alaska+News)
Return of The Blob
By Matt Miller, KTOO - Juneau | May 5, 2015
Sea surface temperature anomalies (standard deviations from the mean) in NE Pacific Ocean for February 2014 based on the record from 1981–2010. (Graphic courtesy of American Geophysical Union)
Climate researchers say a giant mass of warm water in the Pacific Ocean may be responsible for unusual sightings of marine life in the North Pacific while also influencing North American weather patterns.
Nicholas Bond, a climatologist for Washington state and a research scientist at the University of Washington’s Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean, came up with the 1950s sci-fi movie inspired nickname The Blob for the huge, evolving mass of warm ocean water.
“I started seeing this very unusually warm water in a semicircular patch about a year ago,” Bond says.
He says down to a depth of a hundred meters temperatures have increased more than two degrees Celsius since the fall of 2013.
“It was a big event,” Bond says, adding that it was the biggest anomaly seen in the last 18 years.
In a paper published last month in the Geophysical Research Letters, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL063306/full Bond and his co-authors say it was caused by a lingering high pressure system that normally inhibits cloud formation and precipitation. The high pressure over the eastern North Pacific blocked the usual parade of winter storms, diverted surface winds and prevented the usual ocean cooling.
“Also, the weird direction of the winds meant that in the region of The Blob there’s more warm water coming up from the south than usual to make it warmer there,” Bond says.
The higher temperatures coincide with unusual bird sightings in the Pacific Northwest and catches of tuna, sunfish and athresher shark in Alaska.
The Blob wasn’t the sole cause, but Bond says it could’ve helped divert frigid Arctic air to the Great Lakes Region last winter. It also could have contributed to a dry West Coast and mild winters along the Alaska coast, simultaneously bumming out skiers and snowboarders and pleasing municipal managers overseeing street snow removal budgets.
“It makes more sense that — in the short-term development phase — the atmosphere drives the sea surface temperatures in this part of the world,” says Rick Thoman, a climate specialist with the National Weather Service in Fairbanks.
Thoman says they’re seeing those higher temperatures deeper in the ocean, not just at the surface.
“That means that’s not likely to change in the short term, say a few month change,” Thoman says. “That warm water extends through a depth of the ocean and that will take a while to change.”
Bond calls it thermal inertia, and he warns that we may see the effects of The Blob even through next winter.
“So, it’s not due to climate change. But it’s a taste of what we’re going to be getting more of in future decades,” Bond says. “I look at it as an opportunity to learn about what climate change is liable to bring us.”
Six Alaskans are among the scientists and resource managers meeting at the Scripps Institute of Oceanography in La Jolla, California this week to discuss The Blob.
Over the last two winters, The Blob has moved and stretched out along the western coast from the Gulf of Alaska to Baja California. It’s unclear how it will affect juvenile salmon now heading out to the open ocean and mature salmon returning to Alaska streams this summer.
You can subscribe to APRN’s newsfeeds via email, podcast and RSS. Follow us on Facebook at alaskapublic.org and on Twitter @aprn.
Return of The Blob
By Matt Miller, KTOO - Juneau | May 5, 2015
Sea surface temperature anomalies (standard deviations from the mean) in NE Pacific Ocean for February 2014 based on the record from 1981–2010. (Graphic courtesy of American Geophysical Union)
Climate researchers say a giant mass of warm water in the Pacific Ocean may be responsible for unusual sightings of marine life in the North Pacific while also influencing North American weather patterns.
Nicholas Bond, a climatologist for Washington state and a research scientist at the University of Washington’s Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean, came up with the 1950s sci-fi movie inspired nickname The Blob for the huge, evolving mass of warm ocean water.
“I started seeing this very unusually warm water in a semicircular patch about a year ago,” Bond says.
He says down to a depth of a hundred meters temperatures have increased more than two degrees Celsius since the fall of 2013.
“It was a big event,” Bond says, adding that it was the biggest anomaly seen in the last 18 years.
In a paper published last month in the Geophysical Research Letters, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL063306/full Bond and his co-authors say it was caused by a lingering high pressure system that normally inhibits cloud formation and precipitation. The high pressure over the eastern North Pacific blocked the usual parade of winter storms, diverted surface winds and prevented the usual ocean cooling.
“Also, the weird direction of the winds meant that in the region of The Blob there’s more warm water coming up from the south than usual to make it warmer there,” Bond says.
The higher temperatures coincide with unusual bird sightings in the Pacific Northwest and catches of tuna, sunfish and athresher shark in Alaska.
The Blob wasn’t the sole cause, but Bond says it could’ve helped divert frigid Arctic air to the Great Lakes Region last winter. It also could have contributed to a dry West Coast and mild winters along the Alaska coast, simultaneously bumming out skiers and snowboarders and pleasing municipal managers overseeing street snow removal budgets.
“It makes more sense that — in the short-term development phase — the atmosphere drives the sea surface temperatures in this part of the world,” says Rick Thoman, a climate specialist with the National Weather Service in Fairbanks.
Thoman says they’re seeing those higher temperatures deeper in the ocean, not just at the surface.
“That means that’s not likely to change in the short term, say a few month change,” Thoman says. “That warm water extends through a depth of the ocean and that will take a while to change.”
Bond calls it thermal inertia, and he warns that we may see the effects of The Blob even through next winter.
“So, it’s not due to climate change. But it’s a taste of what we’re going to be getting more of in future decades,” Bond says. “I look at it as an opportunity to learn about what climate change is liable to bring us.”
Six Alaskans are among the scientists and resource managers meeting at the Scripps Institute of Oceanography in La Jolla, California this week to discuss The Blob.
Over the last two winters, The Blob has moved and stretched out along the western coast from the Gulf of Alaska to Baja California. It’s unclear how it will affect juvenile salmon now heading out to the open ocean and mature salmon returning to Alaska streams this summer.
You can subscribe to APRN’s newsfeeds via email, podcast and RSS. Follow us on Facebook at alaskapublic.org and on Twitter @aprn.
apparently yes ..lol!
OldBlackDog
Well-Known Member
[h=1]Underwater Volcano Off US West Coast Still Spewing Lava As Scientists Monitor Activity[/h]Scientists in Oregon and Washington say an underwater observatory is yielding new insights into an undersea volcano erupting off the West Coast of the U.S.
The submarine eruption of the Axial Seamount, a mountain rising 3,000 feet above the sea floor around 300 miles off the coast, was first suspected after large changes in the seafloor elevation and a swarm of tiny earthquakes were detected late last month.
Researchers have been making observations of the Axial Seamount for 15 years, recording tiny movements of the ocean floor as magma inflates the volcano.
"It's kind of like a balloon — as magma is going into the balloon, it's inflating, and it pushes the seafloor up," says geologist Bill Chadwick of Oregon State University. "As more and more magma gets in, the pressure builds. Eventually, it reaches some critical pressure where [the seamount] can't hold it in anymore, and then it squirts out."
The researchers have been able to monitor the latest eruption in real-time using instruments on the seafloor connected to the shore by fiber optic cables.
Scientists at the University of Washington installed the system, known as the Ocean Observatories Initiative, last summer as the culmination of years of work.
"This is the first time we've done this," says UW Professor John Delaney. "We are right at the beginning."
The system includes eight seismometers placed around the edge of the large caldera of the Axial Seamount and sensors to record changes in water pressure as the mount's surface inflates or deflates, moving up or down.
"If the seafloor is going up, there's less ocean above you, so there's a little less pressure," Chadwick says. "It's not much, but our instruments are so sensitive [that] we can measure to within a millimeter of vertical motion."
Last week, the volcano's crater dropped around 6 feet in just 12 hours, while the number of earthquakes increased from hundreds a day to thousands, all recorded by the UW instruments.
"This is the first place in the world where we have a wired volcano on the seafloor," says Chadwick.
The fiber optic system can do more than just monitor the volcano, Delaney says, and could someday be used to track whale migrations, monitor fish populations and even measure ocean acidification caused by climate change.
"All those things are available to be studied using this fiber, which essentially allows you to be there without being there," Delaney says.
The system was built using funding from the National Science Foundation.
The submarine eruption of the Axial Seamount, a mountain rising 3,000 feet above the sea floor around 300 miles off the coast, was first suspected after large changes in the seafloor elevation and a swarm of tiny earthquakes were detected late last month.
Researchers have been making observations of the Axial Seamount for 15 years, recording tiny movements of the ocean floor as magma inflates the volcano.
"It's kind of like a balloon — as magma is going into the balloon, it's inflating, and it pushes the seafloor up," says geologist Bill Chadwick of Oregon State University. "As more and more magma gets in, the pressure builds. Eventually, it reaches some critical pressure where [the seamount] can't hold it in anymore, and then it squirts out."
The researchers have been able to monitor the latest eruption in real-time using instruments on the seafloor connected to the shore by fiber optic cables.
Scientists at the University of Washington installed the system, known as the Ocean Observatories Initiative, last summer as the culmination of years of work.
"This is the first time we've done this," says UW Professor John Delaney. "We are right at the beginning."
The system includes eight seismometers placed around the edge of the large caldera of the Axial Seamount and sensors to record changes in water pressure as the mount's surface inflates or deflates, moving up or down.
"If the seafloor is going up, there's less ocean above you, so there's a little less pressure," Chadwick says. "It's not much, but our instruments are so sensitive [that] we can measure to within a millimeter of vertical motion."
Last week, the volcano's crater dropped around 6 feet in just 12 hours, while the number of earthquakes increased from hundreds a day to thousands, all recorded by the UW instruments.
"This is the first place in the world where we have a wired volcano on the seafloor," says Chadwick.
The fiber optic system can do more than just monitor the volcano, Delaney says, and could someday be used to track whale migrations, monitor fish populations and even measure ocean acidification caused by climate change.
"All those things are available to be studied using this fiber, which essentially allows you to be there without being there," Delaney says.
The system was built using funding from the National Science Foundation.
S
steelmadness
Guest
An underwater volcano might make the surrounding water warmer...
GLG
Well-Known Member
Why yes it would but the "Blob" is far to big to be caused by a volcano. It is more likely caused by a wireless fusion reactor. Look straight up in the sky at noon tomorrow to see it
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Tugcapitan
Well-Known Member
Super entertaining thread thanks!
Agree the cut and paste is excessive.
Thought Agent Aqua calling out Old Black Dog for being paternalistic and dismissive and then later going on to question his mental health was a bit of the pot calling the kettle black.
As for the blob (and global warming or whatever one wants to call what's going on), I can't help but wonder how many similar periods of major shifts and changes this world has been through during it's existence. It's amazing how vulnerable life is to tiny changes!
Agree the cut and paste is excessive.
Thought Agent Aqua calling out Old Black Dog for being paternalistic and dismissive and then later going on to question his mental health was a bit of the pot calling the kettle black.
As for the blob (and global warming or whatever one wants to call what's going on), I can't help but wonder how many similar periods of major shifts and changes this world has been through during it's existence. It's amazing how vulnerable life is to tiny changes!
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