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Ontario Wind Can Power Less Than 5,000 Cars
Posted on November 19, 2017 by tonyheller
Wind power in Ontario is currently producing 675 MW.



This Hour’s Data

A Tesla Supercharger draws 145 KW. If the entire Ontario wind electricity supply was used for cars, that would power 4,655 vehicles, and leave no electricity for any other purposes.
 
My experience has so far been that most people who are buying in to alternative energy and electrical vehicles as a probable future have pretty limited math skills. I think it's the same effect as when you ask people how long they think it would take to count to a million, they usually say something like a few days or a week, and if you ask "what about a billion" they think maybe a month would be enough. There doesn't seem to be a circuit in the brain hardwired to do multiplication on any grand scale, so people think that a solution which works okay for a handful of situations can just be something that will work fine for everyone.

The Tesla truck analysis is pretty good. Even if he's underestimating the efficiency of the truck by half - and we're really getting into the realm of the absurd here - you're still talking about MW recharging. What's that going to look like? That's absolutely monstrous electrical power. I once worked on the grid of a hydro transfer station and the processes involved to deal with safety issues in the event of a ground fault were not insignificant.

People radically underestimate just how critical energy density is and the degree to which hydrocarbons exceed batteries in this regard. And what it looks like when you try to compete with hydrocarbons using electricity.

EVs almost certainly have some kind of future but I think large scale trust in Elon Musk's inexplicable vision is starting to erode, simply because the numbers really do not appear to pass inspection.

But we'll see, I guess.
 
Well I'm sure that the SEC will be down at Tesla Monday morning to check his claims based on what motormouth sussed out on the back of his napkin. I'm sure that Wal-Mart and Loblaws will cancel their orders ......... soon as they read this "news".

You can say alot about Tesla but not delivering on performance is not one of them. Take a ride in one of their cars and you will know.
 
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Ontario Wind Can Power Less Than 5,000 Cars
Posted on November 19, 2017 by tonyheller
Wind power in Ontario is currently producing 675 MW.



This Hour’s Data

A Tesla Supercharger draws 145 KW. If the entire Ontario wind electricity supply was used for cars, that would power 4,655 vehicles, and leave no electricity for any other purposes.

You should follow the link at the bottom of your post OBD and see what is happening right now. Seems those numbers change and your climate denier website that you got this from now has egg on his face.

A Tesla Supercharger draws 145 KW. If the entire Ontario wind electricity supply was used for cars, that would power 4,655 vehicles, and leave no electricity for any other purposes.
So if this is correct then 4,655 could be charged each hour.
Times that by 24 hours a day = 11,720 cars
Each car would need to be charged once per week = 782,040 could be charged and used easily under that assumption. Not many would charge at a supercharger at 3am but most due charge at home plugged into the house so power is getting used.

Did you check to see how much wind was getting put onto the grid? Seems that number that the CO2 snow man used was the lowest that has been recorded.
 
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Well I'm sure that the SEC will be down at Tesla Monday morning to check his claims based on what motormouth sussed out on the back of his napkin. I'm sure that Wal-Mart and Loblaws will cancel their orders ......... soon as they read this "news".

You can say alot about Tesla but not delivering on performance is not one of them. Take a ride in one of their cars and you will know.
Considering the total combined order of units between Walmart and Loblaws is 40 trucks I don't think it would matter at all. Orders on that scale don't require the trucks to work as long-distance haulers; they just need to make the news and respond to an interest in green energy in the minds of potential customers. If they do work, and the infrastructure can be put in place to support them (which is the much bigger question at this point) then it's a bonus and maybe it'll pay off.

But the numbers at this point don't really make sense as anything but a PR exercise. That kind of thing is adequate for some people but personally I'm a lot more interested in hard data and we're a pretty long way out from that at this point.

EV torque is fun, no doubt about it. But the question isn't "was it fun when I took a Tesla for a spin last year". The question, as I always say whenever it comes up, is "how does it scale?"

No good answer yet and nobody's even come close - in fact virtually nobody even tries. Usually all I get are people accusing me of being a climate denier, or a fearmonger, or a dinosaur, all of which are hilarious to me, partly because they usually indicate a real lack of awareness about the challenges of energy density, variable cost price models, manufacturing scale issues, and infrastructure development.

And, of course, there's usually a corresponding insistence that my questions about the problems of scaling this technology to, say, 10,000 times its current size, are rooted in some kind of personal failing on my part.

But that means nothing to me, and it doesn't address the question. How does it scale? We don't know, but at present the numbers don't look great.




As far as the SEC goes, I wouldn't be surprised if they're down there tomorrow, but only as part of the ongoing investigations related to the class action suit by investors regarding the (IMO unsurprising) writedowns over the last couple of quarters as they've been forced to admit that production numbers don't look nearly as rosy as initially claimed. Whether it's enough for Tesla to get nailed for deliberately defrauding investors I couldn't say but a lot of people took a big hit over the last quarter when the truth came out about the model 3 numbers. Assuming we have the whole truth, which again is very hard to tell at this point.


But hey, maybe I'm just someone who hates technology and loves oil.
 
I agree it seems if you question the new technology you're branded a heretic. Would be nice to have more civil discourse ,as opposed to everything dividing down tribal lines.

Im all for embracing new technology, when it makes sense. I don't thing all electric vehicles are there yet. Maybe hybrids, but right now all electric only suits urban dwellers or wealthy retirees , or others who don't commute to work, go on long road trips etc.

Great idea but not quite there yet IMO.
 
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Tesla truck is not the only game in town. Seems that others are racing to market also.
https://www.trucks.com/2017/11/17/elon-musk-unveils-tesla-electric-semi-truck/

All these future products are just version one in what I think will be a long line in what is ahead. I have been in tech most of my career and have seen this play out before. Same arguments for and against but history shows what way this is going. The real question is how fast with current tech and/or what happens with breakthroughs.

I was not aware of class action suite with Tesla..... do you have a link?

Model 3 is having problems with the robots that build the battery pack. I think I read that they need to reprogram or replace them. Their supplier let them down but they have a plan to fix it.
 
I agree it seems if you question the new technology you're branded a heretic. Would be nice to have more civil discourse ,as opposed to everything dividing down tribal lines.

Im all for embracing new technology, when it makes sense. I don't thing all electric vehicles are there yet. Maybe hybrids, but right now all electric only suits urban dwellers or wealthy retirees , or others who don't commute to work, go on long road trips etc.

Great idea but not quite there yet IMO.

I would have to agree with you on some of that for now as my wife has a hybrid and she is hard pressed to let me drive it. Over the 3 1/2 years we have owned it we get 4.2 l/100km according to the onboard computer. It's not a plugin hybrid as at the time was to pricy. In a perfect world she would own a pure EV and I would have a hybrid truck that can tow the boat. Not living in the perfect world yet.....
 
We have just started looking and thought the plug in hybrid would be the way to go for us Have to admit I'm surprised at the limited selection in Canada. Seems like 2018 may bring more options so we will take a wait and see approach until then.
 
I was not aware of class action suite with Tesla..... do you have a link?
The particular one I'm referring to (there's at least two others underway now) is just spooling up; Lundin Law is handling it and details are here:

http://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...ORTANT-INVESTOR-ALERT-Lundin-Law-PC-Announces

"According to the Complaint, throughout the Class Period, Tesla made materially false and/or misleading statements, and/or failed to disclose, that contrary to the Company’s representations that it was prepared for the launch of its Model 3 sedan, the Company had severely inadequate inventory and was woefully unprepared to launch its Model 3 sedan as anticipated; and thus, its public statements were materially false and misleading at all relevant times. On October 2, 2017, the Company cited “production bottlenecks” as the reason for its failure to meet its production goals for its Model 3 sedan. On October 6, 2017, the Wall Street Journal published an article reporting, in part, that “(U)nknown to analysts, investors and the hundreds of thousands of customers who signed up to buy it, as recently as early September major portions of the Model 3 were still being banged out by hand, away from the automated production line, according to people familiar with the matter.” Upon release of this information, shares of Tesla fell in value materially, which caused investors harm according to the Complaint."

Of course there's also the one that stemmed from the crash that killed Joshua Brown, which the SEC is investigating because it looks like Tesla hid information about the crash from investors, and then there's the other one that was filed about the racism thing, although who knows where that's going. But the point is that if the SEC is down there tomorrow it's probably because of ongoing investigations into problems which are pretty well-known, not because they're obviously defrauding people with any new claims.

Although considering their track record re: deceiving investors, obviously that's a possibility.


I would argue that history does not, at all, show which way this is going. Every previous attempt to replace hydrocarbon-powered piston engines has failed despite massive government investment, venture capital backing, and entrepreneurial interest, so if we follow the established pattern, this will be a flash in the pan, which of course happens all the time in technology as I presume you know if you have, like me, spent your career in high-tech industries.

In fact I'm pretty sure that in past arguments I've offered a series of examples of so-called next generation technology, which turned out to be dead end technology, or at best, niche technology.

That is very probably where pure EV technology will wind up; popular for commuting and transit vehicles in highly urbanized areas where charging infrastructure can be centralized. If they can find a way to make it work, terrific. I stand to gain nothing if Tesla fails, or EVs never become mainstream, or anything else related to this industry.

But there are a bunch of problems with the fundamentals of the technology which enthusiasts are glossing over, and that doesn't change whether the various class actions against, or SEC investigations into, Tesla INC turn up wrongdoing or not.
 
The particular one I'm referring to (there's at least two others underway now) is just spooling up; Lundin Law is handling it and details are here:

http://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...ORTANT-INVESTOR-ALERT-Lundin-Law-PC-Announces

"According to the Complaint, throughout the Class Period, Tesla made materially false and/or misleading statements, and/or failed to disclose, that contrary to the Company’s representations that it was prepared for the launch of its Model 3 sedan, the Company had severely inadequate inventory and was woefully unprepared to launch its Model 3 sedan as anticipated; and thus, its public statements were materially false and misleading at all relevant times. On October 2, 2017, the Company cited “production bottlenecks” as the reason for its failure to meet its production goals for its Model 3 sedan. On October 6, 2017, the Wall Street Journal published an article reporting, in part, that “(U)nknown to analysts, investors and the hundreds of thousands of customers who signed up to buy it, as recently as early September major portions of the Model 3 were still being banged out by hand, away from the automated production line, according to people familiar with the matter.” Upon release of this information, shares of Tesla fell in value materially, which caused investors harm according to the Complaint."

Of course there's also the one that stemmed from the crash that killed Joshua Brown, which the SEC is investigating because it looks like Tesla hid information about the crash from investors, and then there's the other one that was filed about the racism thing, although who knows where that's going. But the point is that if the SEC is down there tomorrow it's probably because of ongoing investigations into problems which are pretty well-known, not because they're obviously defrauding people with any new claims.

Although considering their track record re: deceiving investors, obviously that's a possibility.


I would argue that history does not, at all, show which way this is going. Every previous attempt to replace hydrocarbon-powered piston engines has failed despite massive government investment, venture capital backing, and entrepreneurial interest, so if we follow the established pattern, this will be a flash in the pan, which of course happens all the time in technology as I presume you know if you have, like me, spent your career in high-tech industries.

In fact I'm pretty sure that in past arguments I've offered a series of examples of so-called next generation technology, which turned out to be dead end technology, or at best, niche technology.

That is very probably where pure EV technology will wind up; popular for commuting and transit vehicles in highly urbanized areas where charging infrastructure can be centralized. If they can find a way to make it work, terrific. I stand to gain nothing if Tesla fails, or EVs never become mainstream, or anything else related to this industry.

But there are a bunch of problems with the fundamentals of the technology which enthusiasts are glossing over, and that doesn't change whether the various class actions against, or SEC investigations into, Tesla INC turn up wrongdoing or not.

Ok I did find some details on SEC fillings
http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?f...TSLA-10Q_20170930_HTM_ITEM1_LEGAL_PROCEEDINGS

We will see how that plays out.

In the matter of the unfortunate death of Joshua Brown I think that has been worked out with NTSB and the family of Joshua Brown.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/12/tesla-crash-joshua-brown-safety-self-driving-cars
As someone that has lost family from accidents involving cars I have hopes that new tech will help so that others don't have to go through that.

We will have to agree to disagree on where all this is going when it comes to EV's.
 
The NTSB inquiry is separate from the SEC inquiry...in that story they're explaining that Tesla was partly at fault for the crash itself; that's the NTSB investigation's conclusion.

The SEC inquiry is about whether Tesla intentionally withheld information about the crash to defraud investors. I'm not sure if they've reached a conclusion yet or not; there's been so many SEC investigations at Tesla in the last year or so it's getting hard to keep track.
 
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