Discussion in 'General Open Forum' started by pescador, Mar 9, 2020.
Who’s doubling down and buying? Some good buys out there unless there is an apocalypse.
Toilet paper manufacturers should be a win. I am in Tucson currently and they have 1 virus case and Costco is out and a max of 2 bundles when it comes in. This is crazy!
Fixed income for the long haul, but some of those sectors are hard to pass up...wait until the purported tech sector supply chain issues hit with sub component shortages. Quarterly forecasts will be missed and it will be messy for the balance of this year. Credit markets are going crazy. Those with mortgages to refi should absolutely be paying attention.
Here's a good breakdown for those with interest: https://www.barrons.com/articles/wh...e-way-to-do-the-math-51583760312?mod=hp_DAY_1
I am...AMZN, GD, BDX, that kind of thing. Plus big indexes like VOO.
Granted he's pessimistic but Roubini forecasts equity markets dropping 30% this year.
Nassim Taleb proposed black swan theory many years ago. A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity and their severe impact. People explain a widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight.
Did anyone see an overdue recession occurring coincidentally with a potential pandemic rearing, along with the imminent end of oil? The panic in stock markets suggests that no one did. True to theory, this black swan is becoming obvious in hindsight.
But Taleb doesn't use this as an argument for timing the market - he uses it as an argument for building in "anti-fragility". I agree with him about the need to deal with black swan events but I also agree with him that you can't see that stuff coming, so you just take advantage of it to whatever degree possible.
If it craters 30% I will keep buying and buying and buying; I'll probably try to put in another 20 grand this year if I can. I have already put in about that much so far, mostly in the last two weeks. I don't need it to rebound this year. Or even in three or five years. If it stays low I'll buy and buy and buy, because in the long run, it's coming back up, and buying low means buying when other people are selling, and the lower it is, the more I can get for my money. And all of that blue chip stuff, that pays dividends the whole time, so even if this is another 2008 and it just drags along...hey, it's not like there's no income if you own a portion of GD, right? I think their current dividend payout is around 2.5% so sure, maybe it doesn't rebound instantly but it chugs away making a bit of money in a time when interest rates are freakishly low. I don't know, this seems like a good time to be buying to me.
Might see a bit of a bounce today but too much uncertainty right now to stabilize this roller coaster. Never seen the market down over 7% and the Tsx down 10% in one day, just crazy. Sitting on the sidelines for now, still think there's too much downside ahead, sure wished I bought Drip and Tvix 2 weeks ago for the drop
Like many others, waiting for it to stabilize as there’s a LOT of potential (as already mentioned, supply chain disruptions, continuing oil war btwn Rus + SA, worsening corona, etc) for further drop, if not full recession. Will put in as much as I can afford once it appears stable and rebounding. In the meantime, glad that despite the recent significant drop my portfolio heavily emphasizes dividends and strong companies and indexes known to have weathered these types of events in the past. Also secretly hoping this eventually trickles into the real estate market as it eventually did following the 2008 market crash, could be some real estate opportunities in the next couple of years depending on how this plays out.
I'm going to start nipping away now. great time to stock up on US stocks that are on sale.
Don't discount this being an election year and it sure looks like Biden is going to be the Democratic candidate against Trump. Some say the markets reaction in Super Tuesday supports a Biden outcome but who really knows? I personally think the liquidity regulations will see us in a different scenario than 2008 so I'm guessing some of the wealth coming out of the markets will get plowed into real estate, regardless of govt speculation tax policy.
All I can say is hold onto your hats, everyone.
I picked up some DIS, CCL and RCL on friday. May not have hit the bottom but that’s the way she goes.
We just happened to be switching money guys two weeks ago so had cash money in hand when all this started. Needless to say we're not in any rush to get back in just yet. Just a fluke stroke of luck as it was our entire nest egg. Dumb shit luck.
That's like winning the lottery
I would definitely stay on the sidelines with your nest egg cash. Simply too volatile for that asset class right now.
If you are sitting in cash no reason not to start buying a little bit on the way down. no way to predict when the bottom is going to happen. Its already quit a bit off the highs. lots of stocks on sale with low P/E around 10-15 that usually sit at about 20
It's all out of my hands now. I trust the guy that's dealing with it. He said he wouldn't rush into things but I'm sure he's searching for good deals. They're a fairly conservative firm even with their "high risk" stuff. I was very close to starting up a small residential development on my own and would have been mortgaged to the tits. I stepped back and realized that perhaps a "forget about it fund" is in my best interest at this point. It's crazy what 20 years in one of the accounts can turn into. Plus this way I can fish more.
x2 - I wouldn’t have my entire nest egg on the sidelines either, market has dropped enough that any long term investments will do very well, regardless of where this current downturn ends before recovering, so long as you don’t need your money in the short term. Sideline cash doesn’t earn dividends and its not hard to find “safe” stocks and ETFs that yield 4-7%. You can get the best of both worlds right now - dividend returns while the market turmoil continues and long-term growth once the markets inevitably recover. That’s my two-cents anyway. Well, that and ditch your money guy, Q-trade and others make it so easy to DIY that you don’t need others creaming profits off your money!
Not a chance. I tried a little here and a little there and I'm just not cut out for it. I obsessed over things, constantly watched, lost sleep. I'll happily pay the 1% so I can focus my attention on what I'm good at, yelling at sub trades.
By definition, nest egg to me is money I need to put my kids through school so they don't live with me forever, and pay the bills for my wife if I am no longer around, aka money that can't be wasted on junk that is volatile. I hate leverage as well so no debt funded investments however I also have an equity account with Canaccord that is basically indulgent in small cap, high risk investments. That account is being decimated right now, and I only invest cash into it that I used to spend on a Friday night that started at Brandi's and ended Sunday morning who knows where...a blended portfolio is great at a time like this, and RC sounds like you're with someone you are comfortable with and with a bit of luck, you'll get a great bounce.
I should have been more clear by "sidelines" I meant don't go buying without a plan and a strategy to achieve the outcome you're after. Everyone's definition of "sidelines" is unique to their own financial goals. By definition, I consider my uber defensive nest egg accounts to be at, or near, the sidelines of the ongoing market circus.
By the way the only equity I added yesterday is an extended position with Starbucks. The rest of my "nest egg" portfolio was off 1.6% between market close on Thursday and close yesterday so it is performing well as it is low risk. This helps me sleep at night for sure.
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