Stock Abundance Analysis for 2009

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http://www.pcouncil.org/salmon/salpreI09/salpreI09.html

Stock Abundance Analysis for 2009 Ocean Salmon Fisheries
Published February 2009


PDF Version can be downloaded at:
http://www.pcouncil.org/salmon/salpreI09/salpreI09.pdf



INTRODUCTION

This is the second report in an annual series of four reports prepared by the Salmon Technical Team (STT) of the Pacific Fishery Management Council (Council) to document and help guide salmon fishery management off the coasts of Washington, Oregon, and California. This report will be formally reviewed at the Council's March meeting. The third and fourth reports in this series will be developed at the close of the March and April Council meetings, respectively, to analyze the impacts of the Council's proposed
and final ocean salmon fishery management recommendations for 2009.
This report provides 2009 salmon stock abundance projections, and an analysis of the impacts of 2008 regulations, or regulatory procedures, on the projected 2009 abundance. This analysis is analogous to that of a no-action alternative in a National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) analysis, and is intended to
give perspective in developing 2009 management measures. The report focuses on Chinook, coho, and pink salmon stocks that have been important in determining Council fisheries in recent years, and on
stocks listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) with established National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) ESA consultation standards.

Chapter I provides a summary of stock abundance projections. Chapters II and III provide detailed stockby-stock analyses of abundance, a description of prediction methodologies, and accuracy of past abundance predictions for Chinook and coho salmon, respectively. Chapter IV summarizes abundance information for pink salmon. Four appendices provide supplementary information as follows:

Appendix

A provides a summary of Council stock management goals;

Appendix B contains pertinent data for Oregon production index (OPI) area coho; Appendix C contains the Council's current harvest allocation schedules, and; Appendix D details Central Valley Index information, which is not used in management,
but may be of historical interest.

STT Concerns

Klamath River fall Chinook (KRFC) are currently subject to an overfishing concern, and are being managed under a rebuilding plan. In 2008, most ocean fisheries impacting KRFC were closed because of
a conservation alert for Sacramento River fall Chinook. During the preseason planning process in 2008, the harvest from 2007 fall fisheries resulted in a projected age-4 ocean harvest rate of 2.4 percent, derived from a forecast of the age-4 ocean abundance and an estimate of the age-4 ocean harvest. The postseason estimate of age-4 KRFC ocean harvest was higher than previously estimated, and the postseason estimate of age-4 abundance was lower than forecast, resulting in a postseason-estimated age-4 harvest rate of 9.8
percent. Accurately accounting for KRFC impacts in fall fisheries during the preseason planning process continue to be a concern.

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