cohochinook
Well-Known Member
Fishery Notice - Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Subject: FN0569-SALMON: Fraser River Sockeye Update - Areas 11-29 - July 11, 2012
The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday July 10 to receive an update on the
migration of the Fraser sockeye runs and review the status of migration
conditions in the Fraser River watershed.
Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided forecasts of Fraser River sockeye
salmon abundance, timing and diversion rate to the Panel. The 2012 cycle has
the lowest average return of the four cycles of Fraser River sockeye with the
average return (1956-2008) of 3,849,000 fish. DFO has advised that Fraser River
sockeye salmon forecasts for 2012 remain highly uncertain due to variability in
annual survival rates and uncertainty about changes in their productivity. To
put the sockeye run size forecast uncertainty into context, there is a one in
four chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below
1,203,000 fish (the 25% probability level forecast) and there is a three in
four chance at that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below
3,763,000 fish (the 75% probability level forecast). For pre-season planning
purposes, the Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal chance of a
higher or lower return) of 2,119,000 fish. The primary reason for the forecast
of a small 2012 return is that the number of effective female sockeye spawners
in the 2008 brood was the lowest on the 2012 cycle line since 1968. Fishing
decisions will be based on in-season data.
Marine conditions were used to forecast the 50% marine timing of Early Stuart
sockeye through Area 20 of June 29, which is earlier than average. Based on
this Early Stuart timing, the expected marine timing of Chilko sockeye is
August 3. The pre-season forecast of the proportion of Fraser River sockeye
salmon diverting their migration to the Fraser River through Johnstone Strait
is 43%.
The snow pack volume in the Fraser River watershed was above average this
year. Fraser River discharge levels are forecast to be higher than average
this summer, while water temperatures are forecast to be slightly below
average. Cool and wet spring conditions have resulted in very high flows over
the past few weeks. The river discharge at Hope continues to be about 50%
higher than average. Continued high flows will likely negatively impact the
upstream migration success of Early Stuart sockeye resulting in elevated en
route mortality.
Gillnet test fishing began on June 20 in Area 29 (Fraser River at Whonnock) and
on June 22 in Area 20 (Juan de Fuca Strait) and at Round island on July 9th.
Stock discrimination analyses indicate that Early Stuart sockeye make up 85% of
in river samples with 15% Early Summer. Area 20 samples are about 50% Early
Stuart and 50% Early Summer. The estimated escapement of sockeye past Mission
through July 9th is approximately 95,000 fish. High river flows have delayed
the start of the lower Fraser acoustic monitoring programs. Consequently,
current in-season estimates of lower Fraser escapements by stock-group are
particularly uncertain. There were no changes to run sizes at the July 10
meeting. Updates to Early Stuart run size are expected Friday and an update
to Early Summer-run run size is expected in late July, after the peak of their
marine migration peak has been observed.
There is currently a limited First Nations food, social and ceremonial
fisheries directed at chinook with some incidental sockeye retention. Fishers
are requested to check for the opening times and any restrictions in their
local area. There are no planned commercial or recreational fisheries at this
time.
The next in-season meeting of the Panel is scheduled to occur on Friday July
13, 2012.
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Barry Rosenberger 250-851-4892
Fisheries and Oceans Canada Operations Center - FN0569
Sent July 11, 2012 at 10:59
Visit us on the Web at http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca
Subject: FN0569-SALMON: Fraser River Sockeye Update - Areas 11-29 - July 11, 2012
The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday July 10 to receive an update on the
migration of the Fraser sockeye runs and review the status of migration
conditions in the Fraser River watershed.
Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided forecasts of Fraser River sockeye
salmon abundance, timing and diversion rate to the Panel. The 2012 cycle has
the lowest average return of the four cycles of Fraser River sockeye with the
average return (1956-2008) of 3,849,000 fish. DFO has advised that Fraser River
sockeye salmon forecasts for 2012 remain highly uncertain due to variability in
annual survival rates and uncertainty about changes in their productivity. To
put the sockeye run size forecast uncertainty into context, there is a one in
four chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below
1,203,000 fish (the 25% probability level forecast) and there is a three in
four chance at that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below
3,763,000 fish (the 75% probability level forecast). For pre-season planning
purposes, the Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal chance of a
higher or lower return) of 2,119,000 fish. The primary reason for the forecast
of a small 2012 return is that the number of effective female sockeye spawners
in the 2008 brood was the lowest on the 2012 cycle line since 1968. Fishing
decisions will be based on in-season data.
Marine conditions were used to forecast the 50% marine timing of Early Stuart
sockeye through Area 20 of June 29, which is earlier than average. Based on
this Early Stuart timing, the expected marine timing of Chilko sockeye is
August 3. The pre-season forecast of the proportion of Fraser River sockeye
salmon diverting their migration to the Fraser River through Johnstone Strait
is 43%.
The snow pack volume in the Fraser River watershed was above average this
year. Fraser River discharge levels are forecast to be higher than average
this summer, while water temperatures are forecast to be slightly below
average. Cool and wet spring conditions have resulted in very high flows over
the past few weeks. The river discharge at Hope continues to be about 50%
higher than average. Continued high flows will likely negatively impact the
upstream migration success of Early Stuart sockeye resulting in elevated en
route mortality.
Gillnet test fishing began on June 20 in Area 29 (Fraser River at Whonnock) and
on June 22 in Area 20 (Juan de Fuca Strait) and at Round island on July 9th.
Stock discrimination analyses indicate that Early Stuart sockeye make up 85% of
in river samples with 15% Early Summer. Area 20 samples are about 50% Early
Stuart and 50% Early Summer. The estimated escapement of sockeye past Mission
through July 9th is approximately 95,000 fish. High river flows have delayed
the start of the lower Fraser acoustic monitoring programs. Consequently,
current in-season estimates of lower Fraser escapements by stock-group are
particularly uncertain. There were no changes to run sizes at the July 10
meeting. Updates to Early Stuart run size are expected Friday and an update
to Early Summer-run run size is expected in late July, after the peak of their
marine migration peak has been observed.
There is currently a limited First Nations food, social and ceremonial
fisheries directed at chinook with some incidental sockeye retention. Fishers
are requested to check for the opening times and any restrictions in their
local area. There are no planned commercial or recreational fisheries at this
time.
The next in-season meeting of the Panel is scheduled to occur on Friday July
13, 2012.
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Barry Rosenberger 250-851-4892
Fisheries and Oceans Canada Operations Center - FN0569
Sent July 11, 2012 at 10:59
Visit us on the Web at http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca
