IPHC Halibut Forecast - further declines

Discussion in 'Saltwater Fishing Forum' started by searun, Dec 7, 2019.

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What is your preference if Canada gets less halibut TAC?

  1. Keep 2 under 90cm or choice of 1 under 126 cm and March start with early close in August?

    24 vote(s)
    17.6%
  2. Keep same regs as 2019, but start season later in June to protect summer season June - Aug?

    35 vote(s)
    25.7%
  3. Move to only 1 fish from 2, but keep larger size (126cm) - March start with possible early close?

    62 vote(s)
    45.6%
  4. Move to only 1 fish, but keep larger size (126cm) - late start (June) - protect summer season?

    11 vote(s)
    8.1%
  5. Keep 2 fish option, but lower size limit - 2 at 90cm with March start and possible early close

    2 vote(s)
    1.5%
  6. Keep 2 fish option, but lower size limit - 2 at 90cm with late start (June) to protect summer season

    2 vote(s)
    1.5%
  1. ziggy

    ziggy Well-Known Member

    Aren’t you asking people to be honest when they file log books? No system is perfect and there will always be cheats. If we wait for the 100% solution we will never progress. Both tags and mandatory reporting of fish recorded on previous years licenses can be cheated if someone is cleaver and dedicated enough to “ beat the system”. I believe however that most fishermen , vast majority, have no problem in accurately reporting their catch, the guys that don’t want to, probably don’t record their catches now and print new licenses when their old one is filled. There will always be those who ignore the rules, but that’s why we have enforcement.
     
  2. ziggy

    ziggy Well-Known Member

    Maybe we could ask the FN’s how their accurate reporting system works lol
     
  3. BearCove

    BearCove Crew Member

    Absolutely you are asking guys to be honest when doing log books, whether the people that fill them out do it honestly, who knows.

    And how many log books are out there compared to anglers? I'm thinking there are way more people not doing log books than are. I know in my area there are very few anglers that have log books, mostly just lodges and guides. So this data that is collected by the guides and lodges I would assume has higher success rates than just the average Joe angler.

    Now does this help our cause? If DFO is averaging based on these numbers I would think that the numbers would be higher than if they were spread amongst all on the water.

    You are right, there is not a 100% solution at this point but trying to find a way to collect correct data from the masses would ultimately give us the best data.
     
  4. searun

    searun Well-Known Member

    Fly-overs are actually a critical part of the creel process. The catch estimates are based on determining the Catch Per Unit of Effort (CPUE) based on individual fishers that are interviewed by the Creel folks. They then take the average CPUE from Creel and multiply that against the vessel count collected in the fly-overs. Then because guides have a different (higher) CPUE the guide logbook data is used instead of applying the average CPUE to correct the survey bias that would happen by including guide boats as an average CPUE...so the guide boats are deducted from the creel and their actual logbook data is added back in to correct the survey bias.

    So the issue this estimation methodology is trying to correct is we can't possibly have a creel survey person on every dock - so applying an average CPUE to the vessel count is a statistically valid approach. Is there potential error, yes of course. That is one reason why guide logbooks are a great way to correct some of the potential bias.

    Obviously there are potential ways for the current creel methodology to produce inaccurate estimates. An easy example is in Areas where the dock-side creel surveys are heavily influenced by the proportion of guides being interviewed - if the guides represent a higher number of interviewees, that average CPUE is applied across the entire vessel count captured by the fly-overs. If in the instance of Area 121, you have a large influx of US non-guided vessels that same CPUE average is applied to all vessels because it is impossible to separate a US boat from a Canadian boat fishing in Canadian waters.

    When we move to being able to capture everyone's catch data electronically by allowing catch recording on your phone, that will increase our capacity to more accurately capture catch data from everyone and not just rely on calculating an average based on a few creel interviews. There will still be the need to have an audit capability so that would be the future role of dock-side creel surveys. By audit, I mean the capability to check the data we obtain from individual fishers who are recording their catch on an electronic license platform to ensure accuracy of that data because you are relying on the individual fisher to enter data...that needs to be independently verified to correct potential problems with people not accurately entering catch onto their license.
     
  5. BearCove

    BearCove Crew Member

    Searun,

    I understand the program and what they say they are trying to do with the logbooks/creel surveys and flyovers. My biggest concern has always been that this data collected is not used more than once. Making sure the data that I entered into my log book is not used on the same day that I talked with the creel suryvour while also been flown over. To think that they all come together to make sure that my data that day was only used once.

    Not a perfect system but it's what we have at the momment.
     
  6. Stoisy

    Stoisy Active Member

    This is the key!!! Why make a statistical guess when we can simply know the number of fish caught. Obviously some missed fish will occur from absent-mindedness and from poaching, but that will be quite minimal, in comparison to the uncertainty of modelled CPUE, fly-overs etc... This will make capture estimates far more robust. Very excited for this shift in technology and management. Provides the public fishery a near complete and transparent capture values for use in modeling and escapement management. Also provides some foundation for potential use in other sectors, especially those with a not so little something to hide...
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2019
  7. ChinookExerciser

    ChinookExerciser Active Member

    We are Required to record our catch on our licences. all that needs to be done is for this information to be submitted and counted. Even if it was only submitted at the end of the year it could be used to validate all the other information.

    seems crazy just to toss the information in the garbage at the end of the season after being required to write it down,
     
    ziggy and halimark like this.
  8. ziggy

    ziggy Well-Known Member

    Seems like a good idea, but I can just see the pushback over having to have a cell phone on you when fishing. And if that’s the selected method, would it apply to every license holder? In typical fashion it will be spun as “if you can’t afford cell phones , you can’t fish.” Might be safer from a PR perspective to look at tags or end of season
    reporting.
     
  9. SerengetiGuide

    SerengetiGuide Well-Known Member

    Like I've said, effort will go down, not up in 2020 for halibut, especially as salmon regs set in assuming they will be the same as last year.

    Also the recording on the phone for many areas would be tough with no cell service, not all, but many.
     
  10. wildmanyeah

    wildmanyeah Crew Member

    Depends on the industry last year the message in the media was everything was closed if a different message gets out then who knows
     
  11. wolf

    wolf Well-Known Member

    YES we sure do and when we did a log book(19/20) where did it get us?? closures thank yo very much I know Pat you have the 6180 DNA results that were released last year of all the salmon caught off our coast which showed a shit ton of puget sound fish ... I will be the first to get on board with a tag ,book ,log etc ETC ETC
    As long as we have a season to actually fish and ITS SCIENCE BASED!!!!!!

    To shut us down like they did was not fair and I know some on the west were laughing and joking about us getting screwed over once again, as I personally heard it.

    Some on here said oh just open halibut in JUNE uuummm no you want that taken away from us as well so we get 1 .5 months to actually fish if the shoe was on the other foot would you want that I fucken hardly doubt it

    You have a big up hill battle you and derby to win I wish you all the best of luck
     
    Fins -n- Skins likes this.
  12. SerengetiGuide

    SerengetiGuide Well-Known Member

    last year I didn’t have a single guest call and ask if we were open for retention . This year had over a handful of returns call and make sure open for 2020. The damage is done. Will be Less guides on water. Will be Less recs on water as hallmark pointed out ... bet my house on it
     
    wildmanyeah likes this.
  13. Deewar25

    Deewar25 Well-Known Member

    this has been in place for years....tells you how effective it is! I mean it could help some if there were instructions on the license outlining as such. Not everyone out there is intuitive after all!
     
  14. Aces

    Aces Well-Known Member

    I’ve never heard anyone enjoy the misfortune of the fishers on the South Island
     
  15. wildmanyeah

    wildmanyeah Crew Member

    With the way this debate is going I can see smaller size halibut will be in order despite the fact that’s probably the last thing anyone wants to deal with.
     
  16. richmake

    richmake Well-Known Member

    just an example of how flawed the process is

    I was just at the central coast meetings and some of the coastal data was exposed for us to simple have a look at
    As Wade has said our area....which is mostly areas 11/12....some shocking data was exposed with relation to halibut landings.
    Area 12 was closed to retention for most of the early season but August people got a Chinook
    But what was totally crazy is that DFO data showed that 4 times as many halibut were landed in 12 than area 11 in August
    So if non of the guide fleet barely fished 12
    And most of us never got a halibut in 12...and I’m talking about some dandy guide fleets never fishing halibut in area 12...
    But some how DFO came to a conclusion based on fly overs and fleet size plus creel in the area that 4 times as many halibut were caught in 12?
    I was shocked and voiced my concerns

    A representative from DFO themselves was on the conference call and had huge reservations about the halibut numbers coming out of area 1/2
    Incredibly high but not if you include angler days on the water in a fly over
    The success rate up there must be 99% he said.
    It’s crazy
    My company had a 27% reduction in halibut landings last year
    I find it hard to believe coast wide we hit our number....
    Just my thoughts
     
  17. profisher

    profisher Well-Known Member

    Same thing happens in Sooke when there is a sockeye opening. A sockeye opening now is a 1 in 4 year event at most now so when it happens the fleet is out in force after them. The trouble is the fly over count doesn't differentiate between the 80% of the boats fishing the tidelines for sockeye and the 20% fishing the shore for Chinook. So the Chinook catch goes through the roof....even in a year when Chinook fishing was way sub average. This happened in 2018.
     
  18. SerengetiGuide

    SerengetiGuide Well-Known Member

    Nevermind the perfect weather and lodge closures but sure seems like some funky data this year eh richmake....sure hope sfab takes this into consideration as feel like they won't...
     
  19. SpringVelocity

    SpringVelocity Well-Known Member

    I would like to see a graph of the number of logbooks each area turns in for last ten years. I think you would find the ones with most data points faired better.

    How do you think WCVI surf line chinook fishery was allowed to proceed this while Sooke and Vic were shut down? It is because north of them they have piles more data. How was Nanaimo allowed to keep it's fishery for years while again Sooke and Vic were under slot limits etc. It because Nanaimo had piles of DNA data.

    Look there is no arguing improvements could be made. But you can't have accurate counts without accurate logbooks. A bunch of people have to be doing them at same time in each area.

    If logbooks aren't being handed in how does that help me as a joe angler who fishes 19 and 20? Kind of screws my opportunity? How is that fair to me? Why should we be punished for it not being done?
     
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2019
  20. SpringVelocity

    SpringVelocity Well-Known Member

    Yes I think that is what you will see. There seem to be line drawn in the sand at the malahat sign and vise versa on what people want.

    I still wish we could just split up the areas for openings. South loses fall fishery, and North loses spring fishery. Seems both sides have to compromise if we want to keep the size. It is tough one. WE NEED MORE TAC!
     
    halimark likes this.

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