IPHC Halibut Forecast - further declines

Discussion in 'Saltwater Fishing Forum' started by searun, Dec 7, 2019.

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What is your preference if Canada gets less halibut TAC?

  1. Keep 2 under 90cm or choice of 1 under 126 cm and March start with early close in August?

    24 vote(s)
    17.6%
  2. Keep same regs as 2019, but start season later in June to protect summer season June - Aug?

    35 vote(s)
    25.7%
  3. Move to only 1 fish from 2, but keep larger size (126cm) - March start with possible early close?

    62 vote(s)
    45.6%
  4. Move to only 1 fish, but keep larger size (126cm) - late start (June) - protect summer season?

    11 vote(s)
    8.1%
  5. Keep 2 fish option, but lower size limit - 2 at 90cm with March start and possible early close

    2 vote(s)
    1.5%
  6. Keep 2 fish option, but lower size limit - 2 at 90cm with late start (June) to protect summer season

    2 vote(s)
    1.5%
  1. ChinookExerciser

    ChinookExerciser Active Member

    The attached documents were distributed in August. Wildman has no special information. The 2018 information was shared last year ask your area chair for it or ask members of the halibut committee for it.

    For people like myself who have to make the trip over to the island to fish Halibut. It's a nice option to book one more day off the WVCI and get some halibuts. Not sure I would book a second trip just for Halibut. I am sure I am not the only "primary recreation fisher" who does this.
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Dec 9, 2019
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  2. SpringVelocity

    SpringVelocity Well-Known Member

    Hey Pat

    If Area 19/20 just want a spring season. Why could we not have spring season Area 19/20 March, April, May. Then the north open June, July and August, and it is closed for season. I know it is not popular but you have two sides with completely different fisheries. This has always been the problem of the coast wide model. Maybe it is time to ask the question if that can be an option. Otherwise we are just going to have a divide. I would really like to see that at least looked at.

    It seems to me the most fair option or else the size of fish must drop.
     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2019
  3. profisher

    profisher Well-Known Member

    Why not create an online page where resident license holders can log in up to a slecified date with their license number and vote on all the options the SFAB puts forward. Then it is fair...doesn’t matter if you are from the coast or the prairies...equal say with a single vote. Then go with the majority.
     
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  4. wildmanyeah

    wildmanyeah Crew Member

    From 2017, wonder what the data looks like from 2018 and 2019. Interesting how different year to year can be in just one area 3500 pounds in March in area 19 in 2017 but in 2019 almost 10k

    Then look at the difference in June from 2017 to 2019 27k in 2017 to only 4K in 2019

    Would be very interesting to have all the data from all areas if we are all gonna lay out cards on the table and hash it out.


     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2019
  5. SerengetiGuide

    SerengetiGuide Well-Known Member

    My point Pat was that this season had the most ideal conditions you could have for halibut fishing. I know when we had bad weather years SFAB would always say it was bad weather, have to take that into account that next season more will be caught. The same should be for the reverse. The best weather season on record along with people not having enough time to cancel trips due to salmon restrictions. Add on two of the larger lodges on the coast going down, and I stand by with an April opening we could have same regs as 2019 with 90,000lbs less quota and make it through, or damn close. Add on top of that the overage provision we now have and there would be no early season closure (realize that comes back on us though). I'd say the track record of making these hypothesis on poundage caught with certain regs have been good (only got it wrong in 2017).
     
  6. ChinookExerciser

    ChinookExerciser Active Member

    If searun is right and we have to cut 150k there is no easy way to do it if we want to keep the same size as last year. I does not look like you can do it buy just cutting from september on...you would run the risk of running out of quota before August or worse we go way over our quota, then get penalized in 2021. If you run the 2018 regs that were hugely unpopular you would still have to cut some months out.

    No easy answers, Screwing over the South Islands small boat halibut early season fishery does not make much sense. Perhaps profisher is right you cut out something like cutting out May or june but keep March/April and then ending at the end of august might be the answer.

    What Clear is NO ONE WANTS A SMALLER SIZE DON'T DO THAT TO US AGAIN.
    upload_2019-12-9_12-14-10.png
     
  7. wolf

    wolf Well-Known Member

    NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SEASON OPENS EARLY !!!!!!FEB or MARCH(as the take in those months is minimal) and closes in oct if you really want to give something up not alot of people fish in fall months and if you cant get 6 halibut in the spring and summer well you SUCK. Also what about the carry over from last year if we have unused "quota" then we should be able to apply it over again.. just like the commies...
     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2019
  8. terrin

    terrin Well-Known Member

    Sounds pretty democratic, only thing I would add is those same resident license holders should have input into the selected options for voting as well.
     
  9. Derby

    Derby Crew Member

     
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  10. searun

    searun Well-Known Member

    Points of information - hope they help provide some additional context:

    1. We won't be starting in February. The IHPC doesn't meet until February, and the SFAB meetings aren't until Feb 14-16, so there simply isn't a way to determine what TAC Canada gets, and then make a decision on which regulations to put in place in order to have a fishery. Don't forget that whatever regulations we had in 2019, are what we would run with until the new fishing licenses come out for April 1...so you can't change the rules until the new license year if you needed to slow down the catch engine a bit.

    2. The numbers I put up are only based on the IPHC staff assessment that ends up in the decision tables that the Commissioners and Conference Boards are provided and debate at the IPHC in Alaska this year. What is ultimately decided can vary from the IPHC staff recommendations. So to be clear, my numbers are based on what we know today, not what will happen after the IPHC meetings in February. Canada's final 2019 recreational halibut numbers are still being tallied, and have not yet been officially sent to the IPHC - preliminary numbers indicated we would finish the season with a small underage.

    3. If we do take a reduction in 2020 TAC, it is pretty clear we are not likely going to be able to have a full season as defined by a March start, and a December finish, and roll over the 2019 regulations. Something has to change because as the saying goes, we can't SUCK and BLOW at the same time. So the options or preferences I put up are simply some of the more common ones often discussed...there are literally thousands of possible choices.

    4. It's a big coast, with vastly different fisheries. There are just as many people interested in a fall fishery as a spring fishery - so to be fair, both options are equally important coast-wide and should in my opinion merit full consideration.

    5. The SFAB has consistently asked the Department for an underage carry-over. We were successful in obtaining an overage carry over - meaning any overage in one year, would be deducted from the following year's TAC. We actually used that this season when the preliminary assessment determined we could be over and there was pressure to close in September. We used this provision to allow time to complete a full assessment and re-examine the numbers based on input from the SFAB and DFO staff - result being there were changes made to the calculations which resulted in less TAC used, thus we could continue fishing. The main reason DFO isn't looking at allowing an underage carry-over is the estimation process for calculating our TAC takes considerable effort and as some on this forum have said, the estimation methodology isn't as precise in real-time as we all would like it to be...thus the reluctance at this time. I'm not making excuses, just trying to provide some background as to some (not all) of the issues. Changes coming to how we record our catch may improve that data precision, for example, we will ultimately get to a place where the recording your catch "in ink" on a paper license will change....allowing us to use an electronic license to record and collect catch data in real time. Those changes aren't yet in place, but we are close. Real-time catch data will greatly enhance our catch monitoring and build trust with other stakeholders in the reliability of our catch data.
     
  11. profisher

    profisher Well-Known Member

    Derby that has never happened and never will. It is not just the SFAB meetings, it is any society meetings ,AGM's etc...same die hards show up and that is it. So if the people won't come to a meeting then the meeting should go to the people. At that point if anyone bitches at the outcome and they didn't vote you can without hesitation tell them to go f&(k themselves.
     
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  12. searun

    searun Well-Known Member

    That idea has come up and been hotly debated before. I thought it was a decent idea initially, but was challenged to re-examine that after hearing more of the arguments and seeing the effort data from the creel surveys and over-flight data.

    The reluctance with going there is some argue spatial closures only serve to move effort around. This is especially relevant in areas within relative close proximity of one another. Not uncommon for people from Areas 19/20 to move up island, and conversely for people from other areas (me) to become interlopers. The overall objective of the slot size limits is to slow the catch engine and spread out that TAC across a wide period of time to enable a full season (February to December). We did see quite a bit of shifting effort resulting from the Chinook Regulations last summer as another example of how mobile the fleet really is.
     
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  13. Derby

    Derby Crew Member


    If haven't seen the survey then perhaps ask Chris or are you no longer part of your area 19/20? if you did the survey u do actually have the opportunity to put in those suggestion and pretty much anything u would like to see..take the opportunity and fill out.. if you dont then that will be your choice..
     
  14. SerengetiGuide

    SerengetiGuide Well-Known Member

    Disagree with your point 3 STRONGLY Pat (minus maybe December finish but it would make it through September). It depends on how much of a reduction we get. Up to 90k we could make it through to September from March or April for sure. 10% increase due to weather is not out of the question (hence why Sfab always puts in a 10% buffer), nevermind two closed lodges, and reduced effort as less and less people fish period.
     
  15. terrin

    terrin Well-Known Member

    Ok I'll bite. I used to go over to the Island a couple of times a season to fish and relax. At that time you were allowed 2 per day 3 possession. Since then the Ferry rates doubled and Your only allowed 1 Halibut <126 cm . I never caught more than my 3 in any given year if I was lucky and never even thought about High grading. So if your asking the guy that doesn't live right out front of the fishing grounds I would be great with a 2 fish yearly limit of whatever size is determined to be ok and be able to catch them in one go. Now I simply don't bother fishing the Island much anymore (once in last ten years). Maybe this was all put in place by design to discourage guys like me from going Halibut fishing and I guess it worked. I got slammed before when I brought this up by the special interest patrol and i'm sure this time will be no different. Those same interests would not like a 1 Tuna per day limit and I don't blame them because with global warming and the high cost of our limited resource called fuel it just does not make sense. I live in an area that has some great prawning areas and still would prefer to go out and try and get 200 per day vs burning more fuel to go on two days to do the same and I still feel this way even though I can get on the spots in less than 1/2 hour from the dock. This does not work for someone that does not live right on the coast. I guess like always depends on whose ox is getting gored but at least be honest about it.
     
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  16. searun

    searun Well-Known Member

    Like I said, you can't suck and blow at same time...a 90K reduction means either a late start or early finish but not a full season. So its an "either or" situation not a full season March to December. What most people do not understand is behind the scenes the Halibut Committee and DFO reviews the creel data once it becomes available and makes an in-season assessment. Those assessments are delayed for several weeks into the next month while the data is being tallied.

    Why is that a big deal? Why don't we just make the decision when the data comes in? Well, if for example, we are conducting our assessment in July it is highly likely we would not have full confidence there would be enough TAC to complete the season beyond August..... leading to a lot of pressure to close the fishery or risk having to use the overage provision.

    Most people will want to steer clear of using the overage provision unless there is a degree of confidence we would still have TAC after August and enough to get us to the end of September....because when we get that data in mid-September, it is too late to put the Genie back in the bottle once we use up the TAC. Based on what we saw this season, if we lost 90K in TAC that would have resulted in a September closure at some point in the month...I think, because the final numbers are not yet in.
     
  17. SerengetiGuide

    SerengetiGuide Well-Known Member

    ^ terrins comment slows between new hali regs and salmon regs effort will decrease
     
  18. wildmanyeah

    wildmanyeah Crew Member

    I think the regs this year was a success and I thank everyone that made that happen as well as making a big effort to get everyone’s input on them.

    IMO going to a smaller option would be taking a step backwards.

    So that leaves then the only option of having a short season

    I personally think having the season open in March, April, May and June when there is no salmon option to be must.. The late part of the season may be important to some areas but my guess is Thoes areas also have a salmon option late summer early fall. As well as Other goundfish.

    People can be retrained to go earlier in the season.

    Having the halibut season end at the start of August. Would probably no be the end of the world but it’s pretty clear starting the season late would be the end of the world for area 19/20. All the June and July lodge guests would also still be able to get halibut.

    I guess what I’m asking is having August open make it or break it.
     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2019
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  19. profisher

    profisher Well-Known Member

    With the rock slide as DFO ammo for 2020 there may be little salmon retention in 2020. I’m just looking at the annual trend on salmon seasons and could easily see this being used by NgO’s to further their agenda. They seem to get what they want. In that scenario there is just as likely to be more halibut effort.
     
  20. ziggy

    ziggy Well-Known Member

     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2019

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