All Things COVID-19

Status
Not open for further replies.
Here is the link to an online COVID-19 "what if" calculator from the New York Times. It is coded with US population values but:
The current population of Canada is 37,654,901 as of Friday, March 27, 2020, based on Worldometer elaboration of the latest United Nations data

you can divide by 10 to get pretty close.

Should give folks a rough idea of how long this will be around:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html?algo=top_conversion&fellback=false&imp_id=788119937&imp_id=744414336&action=click&module=trending&pgtype=Article®ion=Footer
 
bright spot for a change

"Prisma Health introduces VESper™ "
VESper™ is a new device that allows ONE ventilator to support up to FOUR patients
under emergency use authorization by the FDA.


Hospitals can apply to receive the free source code and printing specifications for the device.
3D printable!


https://www.prismahealth.or...

It is amazing how great events, (whether it is a world war, a race to the moon or a major pandemic), lead to rapid advancements. They seem to bring out the creative side of our species, aided by the willingness to apply near unlimited resources and cut through red tape combined with a willingness to accept the increased risks, that in less critical times, would slow and inhibit innovations.
 
Last edited:
71799256-a782-46cd-bb04-c77e49ae16b9.MP4

This is an interesting video done by a Brit living in China. Its pretty clear that unless we want to live in a Totalatarism regime, we won't get the same results they got in killing this thing in its tracks quickly, if they have. My guess is....... this guys girl friend is in deep ****. Can you imagine if your local police authority knew what you spent yesterday and where you spent it?
 
It is amazing how great events, (whether it is a world war, a race to the moon or a major pandemic), lead to rapid advancements. They seem to bring out the creative side of our species, aided by the willingness to apply near unlimited resources and cut through red tape combine with a willingness to accept the increased risks, that in less critical times, would slow and inhibit innovations.

Agreed. Also noted in that quote above is that the FDA has given an emergency use authorization. This is huge. My wife working in the medical R&D field and in normal times getting approval from the FDA takes YEARS and lots and lots of reports and testing and risk mitigation. Prisma Health was probably part way down that road already in order for the FDA to grant this authorization, but nonetheless, it's a big deal.
 
Agreed. Also noted in that quote above is that the FDA has given an emergency use authorization. This is huge. My wife working in the medical R&D field and in normal times getting approval from the FDA takes YEARS and lots and lots of reports and testing and risk mitigation. Prisma Health was probably part way down that road already in order for the FDA to grant this authorization, but nonetheless, it's a big deal.

Like other great events before this one there may be many new technologies (especially medical) come out of this and advances in others, new companies and economic opportunities, even some reorganization of the structure of our society. With all the current isolation necessary study and work from home will major universities and some employers realize that they no longer need to have as large campuses and student housing, or for business, such big office towers? Will it spur on greater computer security to make sensitive remote work safe and confidential? Will it increase the demand for remote shopping and delivery beyond Amazon for things like food and medication?

Will we realize that in some future great event we will need the ability to make large quantities of both simpler tools and more complex machines like face shields and ventilators through advanced industrial and office 3D printing. Will we speed up the development of 3D printer technology to develop the early bronze age version of the Star Trek replicator. It may be needed for some future great event to design and make things quickly we don't yet know we will need? If a hospital needs a thousand more face shields or masks in the future, will they just go to the replicator room and print them off?
 
Last edited:
These progressions in technology are amazing and we collectively need all the help we can get. Those people on the zaandam are totally ******. Sure they shouldn't have pushed off on march 7 but now they're stranded at sea. HM sends the Rotterdam to take the "healthy" passengers back to shore. Just seems they will now how 2 ships in distress.
 
I’m thinking this will be the next item sold out at stores, stock up while ya can:



COVID-19: World’s biggest condom producer warns of global shortage

A global shortage of condoms is looming, the world’s biggest producer said, after a coronavirus lockdown forced it to shut down production.

Malaysia’s Karex Bhd makes one in every five condoms globally. It has not produced a single condom from its three Malaysian factories for more than a week due to a lockdown imposed by the government to halt the spread of the virus.

That’s already a shortfall of 100 million condoms, normally marketed internationally by brands such as Durex, supplied to state healthcare systems such as Britain’s NHS or distributed by aid programs such as the UN Population Fund.

The company was given permission to restart production on Friday, but with only 50 per cent of its workforce, under a special exemption for critical industries.

“We are going to see a global shortage of condoms everywhere, which is going to be scary,” he said. “My concern is that for a lot of humanitarian programs deep down in Africa, the shortage will not just be two weeks or a month. That shortage can run into months.”

Malaysia is Southeast Asia’s worst-affected country, with 2,161 coronavirus infections and 26 deaths. The lockdown is due to remain in place at least until April 14.

The other major condom-producing countries are China, where the coronavirus originated and led to widespread factory shutdowns, and India and Thailand, which are seeing infections spiking only now.

Makers of other critical items like medical gloves have also faced hiccups in their operations in Malaysia.

“The good thing is that the demand for condoms is still very strong because like it or not, it’s still an essential to have,” Goh said. “Given that at this point in time people are probably not planning to have children. It’s not the time, with so much uncertainty.”



 
Like other great events before this one there may be many new technologies (especially medical) come out of this and advances in others, new companies and economic opportunities, even some reorganization of the structure of our society. With all the current isolation necessary study and work from home will major universities and some employers realize that they no longer need to have as large campuses and student housing, or for business, such big office towers? Will it spur on greater computer security to make sensitive remote work safe and confidential? Will it increase the demand for remote shopping and delivery beyond Amazon for things like food and medication?

Will we realize that in some future great event we will need the ability to make large quantities of both simpler tools and more complex machines like face shields and ventilators through advanced industrial and office 3D printing. Will we speed up the development of 3D printer technology to develop the early bronze age version of the Star Trek replicator. It may be needed for some future great event to design and make things quickly we don't yet know we will need? If a hospital needs a thousand more face shields or masks in the future, will they just go to the replicator room and print them off?

Not really. 3D printing will still always be a prototyping machine. It really hasn't taken off like people thought. I used to help a medical device place using one and it was very limited. They used an expensive high volume Fortus machine.

It can never ever take the place of CNC machines that are more accurate and other equipment made in high volume manufacturing. Been using 3d printers for years. They are great R and D machine. That is why the government had been going to manufacturers instead with existing lines. I totally get 3D printing thinks it can save everything. But really it is limited to faceshields. I do think should be utilized though when necessary.

There are some great advancements coming every day.

I threw my name name in hat to make some things locally. Right now the demand though is really face masks and ventilation equipment.

A lot of us that make things for a living have a lot of equipment sitting idle that can be utilized right now. It a great win anyway and keeps local economy going and helping the cause.
 
Last edited:
On another note I feel as though we may see our fishing closed over this thing temporarily. Nova Scotia no opening was a red flag.
 
This is not good. Italy is just getting hammered. Look over 900 deaths in a single day. This disease is terrible.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/policy/international/europe/489893-italy-tops-9000-coronavirus-deaths-after-reporting-919-fatalities?amp
I wonder what the timeline is on it burning itself out there?

Clearly they have way more cases than the ~90,000 positive tests imply, but how many more? Five times? Ten times?

Germany has more than half as many confirmed cases...total deaths: 351. When Italy had 351 deaths, they only had ~7,000 confirmed cases. Scaling the numbers up to German testing standards, and assuming a similar mortality rate ( which in reality is likely worse in Italy on account of population and lower standards of care than Germany, although just how much worse is hard to say) I'd guess there are half a million cases in Italy right now. They'll be dealing with this for a long time yet.

Here, I'd guess our numbers are more similar to Germany in terms of population survivability, and our death rate is probably skewed by the outbreak in the care home early on; the German initial outbreak was mostly in younger, fitter people who'd been skiing in the Italian alps.

But I would bet pretty serious money that our confirmed cases are less than half the total; maybe a third. Still, if people play ball on the social distancing thing, we could get off pretty light here. Limiting it fairly aggressively now could mean a death toll in the hundreds. Not bad compared to what Italy is dealing with.
 
I wonder what the timeline is on it burning itself out there?

Clearly they have way more cases than the ~90,000 positive tests imply, but how many more? Five times? Ten times?

Germany has more than half as many confirmed cases...total deaths: 351. When Italy had 351 deaths, they only had ~7,000 confirmed cases. Scaling the numbers up to German testing standards, and assuming a similar mortality rate ( which in reality is likely worse in Italy on account of population and lower standards of care than Germany, although just how much worse is hard to say) I'd guess there are half a million cases in Italy right now. They'll be dealing with this for a long time yet.


The US is now the hotspot for the virus, over 100,000 cases...



CNN)The first US case of the coronavirus was reported January 21 -- a Washington state man who had recently returned from China. Now, the country has at least 101,242 cases across all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Guam, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

At least 1,588 people have died, including 519 in New York, 175 in Washington state and 119 in Louisiana.
CNN's tallies are based on totals reported by states, US territories and the District of Columbia. As a result, they won't always match numbers reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Live updates


The CDC updates its tallies only on weekdays, and those counts end at 4 p.m. ET the day before reporting. CDC officials said the most recent numbers will come from the states.
Answers to some of your top coronavirus questions, every day
Here are the rest of the cases, broken down by state:
Alabama: 638 (including three deaths)
Alaska: 69 (including one death)
Arizona: 665 (including 13 deaths)
Arkansas: 386 (including three deaths)
California: 3,801 (including 78 deaths)
Colorado: 1,734 (including 31 deaths)
Connecticut: 1,291 (including 27 deaths)
Delaware: 163 (including two deaths)
District of Columbia: 267 (including three deaths)
Florida: 3,192 (including 45 deaths)
Georgia: 2,198 (including 65 deaths)
Guam: 49 (including one death)
Hawaii: 120
Idaho: 230 (including four deaths)
Illinois: 3,026 (including 34 deaths)
Indiana: 981 (including 24 deaths)
Iowa: 235 (including three deaths)
Kansas: 202 (including four deaths)
Kentucky: 302 (including seven deaths)
Louisiana: 2,746 (including 119 deaths)
Maine: 168 (including one death)
Maryland: 774 (including five deaths)
Massachusetts: 3,240 (including 35 deaths)
Michigan: 3,657 (including 92 deaths)
Minnesota: 398 (including four deaths)
Mississippi: 579 (including eight deaths)
Missouri: 670 (including nine deaths)
Montana: 109 (include one death)
Nebraska: 89 (including two deaths)
Nevada: 535 (including 10 deaths)
New Hampshire: 187 (including two deaths)
New Jersey: 8,825 (including 108 deaths)
New Mexico: 191 (including one death)
New York: 44,635 (including 519 deaths)
North Carolina: 763 (including three deaths)
North Dakota: 68 (including one death)
Ohio: 1,137 (including 19 deaths)
Oklahoma: 322 (including eight deaths)
Oregon: 414 (including 12 deaths)
Pennsylvania: 2,218 (including 22 deaths)
Puerto Rico: 64 (including two deaths)
Rhode Island: 203
South Carolina: 539 (including 13 deaths)
South Dakota: 58 (including one death)
Tennessee: 1,203 (including six deaths)
Texas: 1,731 (including 23 deaths)
US Virgin Islands: 19
Utah: 480 (including two deaths)
Vermont: 184 (including 10 deaths)
Virginia: 604 (including 14 deaths)
Washington: 3,723 (including 175 deaths)
West Virginia: 96
Wisconsin: 842 (including 13 deaths)
Wyoming: 70
Repatriated cases: 152
 
On another point if any one needs hand sanitizer Shelter point distillery is selling it now. $9.99 for a 26'er (750ml) kudos to them for retooling and offering this to the general public at a more than reasonable price. They are on facebook for further details.
 

Attachments

  • 20200327_155821.jpg
    20200327_155821.jpg
    258.6 KB · Views: 32
The US is now the hotspot for the virus, over 100,000 cases...
Well, they are the hotspot for confirmed cases of the virus. That's not just a function of the presence of the virus but of the number of tests carried out. India may never surpass the total number of confirmed cases...but they will almost certainly surpass the number of cases.

The US is probably still behind Italy in terms of actual number of cases in the country. Their survivability is probably better than Italian survivability, but I don't know that it's five times better, which it would have to be to explain the number of fatalities.
 
On another point if any one needs hand sanitizer Shelter point distillery is selling it now. $9.99 for a 26'er (750ml) kudos to them for retooling and offering this to the general public at a more than reasonable price. They are on facebook for further details.

So this pretty much moonshine for 10 bucks? Blindness?
 
The only way this gets under control will be when a vaccine is developed and we reach herd immunity. Italy is proof that you want to slow down the spread so that your medical response is not overwhelmed. Unfortunately Mexico has not followed any social distancing guidelines nor have they cautioned stay at home. They will be the Petrie dish for how this plays out very soon. I highly doubt the US has the most cases........ China isn’t hasn’t and won’t come clean with the total cases they have had and it’s obvious that they have had thousands more deaths than they admit to. Just follow the mortuaries response and how overwhelmed they were, follow the number of cell phones shut down, The cell phone curve in China was a perfect stable increase for many years and all of a sudden millions of cell phone accounts were closed. Over 20 million so far. For a country of over a billion people to see a 1% to Italy’s 7% then those cell numbers are really concerning.

I look forward to watching baseball again and fishing in ukee stay safe.......
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top