I read the weekly technical reports from DFO and talk with our guys who are representing the rec sector nearly every day. The facts are you can't catch fish because they are swimming straight into the river. Even the commercial guys are having great difficulty getting their fish. The pattern is the fish are coming in fast moving waves, making it extremely difficult to get on top of them and target fish. The only guys knocking them dead are the FN guys fishing the river. Its simply a case of the fish are going directly into the river and not holding up where you can catch them on sport gear. If you read the technical data there are slightly more fish that have gone past the counters in the river than was forecast for this time. Also in the report is the pattern in years where the run will predominantly be comprised of 4 year olds, the bulk of the run tends to show up mid July. So we will have to wait and see if the current forecast (now downgraded to 1.3 million form 1.6 million) is correct.
To make matters worse, the water in the inlet remains cold (16 - 20 degrees). We need warmer water to slow the migration down (ie. +20 degrees). As long is the water remains cool, there is no impediment to migration into the river. Pray for hot weather!!
If you have been fishing Alberni sockeye for 20 years, then I suppose you will then remember this is precisely the same pattern that took place when 1.2 million swam right past everyone into the river - that year the commercial guys hired the FN guys to help catch their quota.
So far the evidence is there are lots of fish - we just need some hot weather to slow them down.
If you want to start getting all the technical reports, come join the Area 23 SFAC and get on the mail list. The tech report is way too long to post, but if you want a copy just pm me with your e-mail and I would be happy to send it along.