2018 Sockeye predictions/banter/pump-up

Discussion in 'Saltwater Fishing Forum' started by Matthias, Feb 7, 2018.

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  1. Matthias

    Matthias Active Member

    Of course it's a long long ways away, but as the months go on, day dreaming of sockeye fishing in the evening on glass calm waters in shorts and a tank with a hey ya'll in hand (non alch of course) become more and more frequent.
    I got into salt fishing in 2015 so i haven't experienced a true sockeye bonanza yet, but from forums/videos and word of mouth, i heard it can be very productive and fun.

    Are there any early predictions on returns yet for this year? Will we get a fishery? Will everything close to preserve killer whales?? Will Mark Madryga finally shave his head and stop hiding his receding hairline?

    Go!
     
  2. ryanb

    ryanb Active Member

    I'm worried that the massive increase in salmon ranching in Alaska is going to put a hurting on our last remaining strong sockeye return. These fish share the same feeding grounds in the north Pacific after all.
     
  3. wildmanyeah

    wildmanyeah Well-Known Member

  4. terrin

    terrin Well-Known Member

    Don't forget that the smolts all need to pass the gauntlet of Disease ridden, lice infested and virus emiting fish farms on there way to the feeding grounds and even if they do make it past the fish farms if they got infected with HSMI they will likely be too weak to successfully make the return journey home as their health will be too compromised.http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/deadly-disease-diagnosed-in-b-c-salmon
     
  5. Redfisher

    Redfisher Active Member

    This is an Adams River sockeye cycle year. If it materializes as it should .....and if DFO let’s us fish them ....get your sockeye gear tied up and ready to rock for August and September. Adams fish school nice and are “biters”. It doesn’t get any better particularly when you get into a school with bigger males in it
     
    Original likes this.
  6. Whitebuck

    Whitebuck Well-Known Member

    Hard for fish to return when their parents went through a genocide of nets in the Fraser!!
    Socks were going for 4$ a fish that year..
     
    wildmanyeah likes this.
  7. Rain City

    Rain City Well-Known Member

    I remember being new to the game that year and feeling like I won the lottery pulling fish in like that. I have to admit I did a bit of bragging. But man when I started getting the "who cares man those things are only worth $5!" I literally wanted to puke. Not that I was trying to sell them but the fact that the general public considered such a prize fish to be a dime a dozen and in no way special was disgusting. Maybe giving everyone, fisherman or not, cheap access to our resource is what's really killing the fight for conservation.
     
    Adler and wildmanyeah like this.
  8. Gong Show

    Gong Show Active Member

    The reason that sockeye was so cheap is that the commercial industry has atrophied from DFO mismanagement.
    The gillnetters and seiners could still catch a jag, but there were not enough ice plants, fish plants, even fish totes!!

    It is simple supply and demand, and supply was killing it four years ago.
     
  9. california

    california Well-Known Member

    There always has usually been a fishery for the dominant year run, and if its anything like 4 or 8 years ago there should be lots of opportunity to fish, but if the in-season actual run comes in at 1/3 of the pre-season estimate like last year all bets are off. It wasn't that long ago there were openings on subdominant years. I hope survival doesn't deteriorate so much that this is the first year the dominant run isn't open to Sporties. Warm water blobs, competition from Alaska ranch fish, sea lice, HSMI.......
     
  10. calmsea

    calmsea Well-Known Member

    If I was you I would not count on any sockeye openings this year. All indicators point thumbs down.
     
    Whitebuck and wildmanyeah like this.
  11. profisher

    profisher Well-Known Member

    If this dominant run doesn't produce and opening it is almost a slam dunk that we will wait another 4 years for the next realistic opportunity.
     
    wildmanyeah likes this.
  12. Redfisher

    Redfisher Active Member

    The history of sockeye for the past 150 has been complex. Overfishing, Hell’s Gate slide and ocean trends are all part of recent history. I hope nature continues to adjust so we can still enjoy fishing and eating this wonderful resource
     
    big rock likes this.
  13. wildmanyeah

    wildmanyeah Well-Known Member

    http://www.frafs.ca/Forum_Documents

    Read the state of the ocean DFO presentation gave.

    If there is a strong Adams river return they will be defying gravity as it were.

    Still I think there can still be an opening in the p-25 to p-50 range.


    I’d encourage you wall to read all the other documents to from this year if you fish any stocks from the Fraser river.
     
  14. nicnat

    nicnat Active Member

    in the 80's and 90's we had 2 dominant years, one so so year and one lean year, now we are down to one dominant year sooooooooooo the trend is not your friend here.
     
  15. Gear'n'beer!

    Gear'n'beer! Well-Known Member

    What's a sockeye?

    Oh you mean those ones we sometimes catch but haven't been able to keep in god knows how long?
     
  16. searun

    searun Well-Known Member

    Below average returns are expected for Fraser Soc's. Your best opportunity for sockeye fishing will be in Port Alberni. At this point there are serious doubts regarding the likelihood of a Fraser fishery...but, the Department has been "surprised" before.

    The surer bet is to go to the Port Alberni fishery.
     
  17. tubber

    tubber Well-Known Member

    I've been to Roderick Haig -Brown Park to see the Adams fish every big year since I moved to the Okanagan, so 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014. It's always impressive, but despite the huge increase in in-river netting over those years, 2014 seemed to have way more fish than I remembered from the other years. They were thick in the river as well as all around the shore of the lake. So I remain hopeful. I don't know how well they count out-migrating fish or measure ocean conditions. I don't think counting the year before's jacks means much on the Adams either, but it sure seems to mean a lot in Alberni.
    I watch the test sets at Blinkhorn and San Juan hoping to see a trend that will give us a chance. I hate pulling the boat through Lower Mainland traffic, but getting the kid out of his office and out on a boat is worth it.
    .
     
    fishin solo likes this.
  18. wildmanyeah

    wildmanyeah Well-Known Member

  19. Redfisher

    Redfisher Active Member

    Fellas just an observation....if I was as pessimistic about sockeye returns as about catching females when I was a teenager I would likely still be single. I started every day out back then with the “faint glimmer of hope clause” which I still apply in practice to this day both at home ......and fishing
     
    carpeweekend and ILHG like this.
  20. wildmanyeah

    wildmanyeah Well-Known Member

    7. Fraser River Sockeye

    2018 is a dominant return year for Late run sockeye. A quantitative forecast of Fraser sockeye returns is expected in early 2018. While returns of sockeye on the 2010 and 2014 cycle lines were large, Fraser sockeye returns have been less than the forecast median (p50) over the last 3 cycles with the exception of 2010. As a result, planning will need to consider the potential for a range of potential returns, as well as, specific management measures for protecting and rebuilding conservation units of conservation concern.

    Key considerations during consultations will include the use of a window closure to start the season, the escapement plan for Early Stuart, Early Summer, Summer and Late run aggregates and specific management measures for stocks of concern. The Department plans to identify 2 escapement plan options in the draft IFMP for consideration in 2018. Options are usually informed by the escapement plan implemented in the brood year (i.e. 2014) and modifications to account for annual considerations including forecast returns. The table below provides information on the fishery reference points implemented in previous years to inform planning.

    For each management aggregate, the escapement plan also identifies a Low Abundance Exploitation Rate (LAER) for cases when there is zero or very low total allowable mortality for a timing group that allows for limited fisheries directed on co-migrating stocks or species. The LAERs have previously been set at 10% for Early Stuart, Early Summer and Summer run timing groups and 20 to 30% for Late run sockeye in past Adams dominant years. As an outcome of the Fraser River Sockeye Spawning Initiative (FRSSI) workshop in late January there may be additional LAER options to consider. In addition, further discussion will be required on the potential for additional terminal harvest opportunities for Fraser sockeye stocks that may return in abundance.

    upload_2018-2-9_14-57-16.png

    Notes:

    a) For Early Summers, Summers, and Lates, the fishery reference points are scaled up annually to account for the expected contribution of unforecasted miscellaneous stocks in the MU.

    b) A separate management objective is identified for Cultus Lake sockeye in the salmon IFMP and includes an exploitation rate constraint that limits harvest of Late run sockeye.

    c) Beginning in 2010, the maximum allowable exploitation rate for Cultus sockeye was permitted to increase above 20% if conditions were expected to permit continued rebuilding of the population based on inseason information on returns of Late run sockeye and potential numbers of effective spawners.
     

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