Discussion in 'Saltwater Fishing Forum' started by terrin, Jul 14, 2018.
Any word on how the early test fishery results are looking in terms of a forcast anyone?
Early stuart is at or above what they were expecting but the catches overall compared to 2014 seem down. Still early, no recreational opening expected till after August 1.
Still at preseason 50% probability level forecast of 13,981,000 fish for all management
groups. This is similar to the cycle average of 13.7 million.
Next panel meeting is July 17th.
Nothing till the end of July early August
they finally hit the coast and arrived in mass.
? Please explain, some good local reports?
Disregard saw your report
Pacific salmon commission puts a report out every friday
While its too early for them to change the pre-season estimate of 13.8 Million fish one way or another , it is interesting they are hedging on fishing opportunities citing the warmer than average temperatures and lower water levels for the Fraser, and implementation of LAER (Low Abundance Exploitation Rate) protection of threatened runs like Early Stuart and Cultus lake, and additional possible actions to protect interior Coho. I guess its good they are being conservative until proven otherwise.
They do state "If in-season conditions are consistent with pre-season expectations, low impact fisheries would be expected to commence in late July in Panel Waters"
Some good news on the Fraser sockeye. The Early Stuart run, which is a small component has had the in season estimate raised from 84,000 to 120,000 fish in Fridays report. The Commission test fisheries have been in line with the catches from previous years for this cycle year, and the diversion rate through Johnstone Straight is 50%. On the downside the Fraser flow is much less (23%) than average and temperatures are already 2.2 degrees above average for this time of year. Its looking like there could be some recreational opportunities this year, at least in salt water.
We released a Sockeye off Sooke this past Sunday and you could see them jumping.
Good to hear.
The Fraser River Panel met on Friday July 20th. No fishery recommendations were made by the US or CA in Panel waters. Domestically some limited sockeye directed FSC fisheries have begun in marine waters and are anticipated to begin in the Lower Fraser River this week. Next update will be on Wednesday, July 25th.
The Fraser River Panel met Friday, July 20, to receive an update on the
migration of the Fraser sockeye runs to date and review the status of migration
conditions in the Fraser River watershed.
Gill net test fishery catches in the Fraser River were mixed with Cottonwood
showing increasing catches while Whonnock catches dropped off considerably. In-
river stock identification analyses indicated the majority of the sockeye to
date have been primarily Early Stuart (32 to 36%) and Early Summers (56 to 63%)
with Nadina being the primary component of the Early Summers at this time.
Marine test fishery catches have fluctuated considerably in Areas 20 and 12
with Area 20 on the rise in recent days and Area 12 on the decline. Stock
identification samples show a declining trend of Early Stuart's in Areas 20 and
12 with increases in both the Early Summers and Summers. In the Early Summer
group the later timed South Thompson stocks are becoming a larger component of
the aggregate which is expected as this group was forecast pre-season to be the
largest stock within the Early Summers. Nadina continues to be making up the
largest portion of the samples in both Areas 12 and 20. Summer run stocks are
beginning to increase in both approach routes while some Late Shuswap stocks
comprise a small component of both the Area 12 and 20 samples. The current
estimate for the diversion rate through Johnstone Strait is estimated to be 50%
based on the most recent 5 days of catch in the Area 20 and 12 gill net test
For pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel has adopted management
adjustments(MA) for Early Stuart based on the historical median for all years,
Early Summer based on the historical median for dominant years only (2018
cycle) and Summer run sockeye based on the historical median for all years.
Model predicted management adjustments based on the water discharge and
temperature predictions were not adopted largely due to the high degree of
uncertainty in the forecasts. Management adjustments are additional fish that
are removed from identified harvest levels and allowed to escape upstream in an
attempt to assist in achievement of identified escapement objectives for the
different run timing groups. In-season information over the coming weeks will
help to inform future decisions on management adjustments for the Early Summer,
Summer and Late run management groups while the Early Stuart management group
will be managed based on the respective Low Abundance Exploitation Rate (LAER)
of 10%. It is anticipated the Early Stuart sockeye return will result in a
spawning escapement being below goal.
The observed water temperature at Qualark on July 19 was 19.0° Celsius which is
2.2° Celsius above average for this date. Water temperatures are forecast to
decline to 17.9° Celsius by July 25. The Fraser River discharge at Hope on July
19 was 3,902 cubic meters per second which is 23% below the average discharge
for this date.
During the call today the Panel accepted a further increase in the Early Stuart
run size from 106,000 to 120,000 with July 3 timing. There were no changes to
the MA as Early Stuarts are currently being managed under the LAER approach. At
this time it continues to be too early to make any predictions of the run size
for Early Summers however the earlier timed stocks appear to be tracking at or
slightly above the p50 forecast or they may be earlier than predicted pre-
season. In-season assessment of all run timing groups generally occurs shortly
after identification of their peak migration through marine areas.
Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) sockeye fisheries
have begun in Marine areas and are expected to start up in the Lower Fraser
River during the coming week. The 3 week Early Stuart window closure remains in
place in the mid and upper portions of the Fraser where Early Stuart stocks are
present. Limited fishing opportunities on Chinook are occurring in these
portions of the Fraser River.
FSC fishers in marine approach areas, as well as the Fraser River are requested
to check for the opening times and any restrictions in their local area.
Commercial and recreational fisheries are not anticipated to begin until the
end of July or early August once commercial TAC has been identified.
The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on
Tuesday, July 24, 2018.
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Regional Salmon Team - DFO Pacific
Decent news with the exception of the lower Fraser FN "food fishery". I really respect the openings and bands above Hells Gate with their means of getting their fish for the most part (especially sharing within the community aspect) but as soon as I hear the lower fraser I just have images of quick $ and wasted fish. I know it's somewhat biased and ignorant but a fair portion is the truth.
i don't see the report anywhere help?
Pretty sure now that one of the 'Coho' I released off Nootka was a Sockeye that aquamarine colour was a dead giveaway.
We also caught a Pink out there and one of the guys working cutting fish said they're a rare animal on the outside so I guess some of them are taking the outside route too.
We have also caught the odd Pink in Sockeye years in JDF but there are never many of them on the off year. Hoping they give us a Sockeye opening but when they do give us an opening it is often after the bulk of the run is past us, but you can still catch them. One summer when they gave us a Sockeye opening we actually did catch and keep at least one of all 5 Pacific salmon species off Sooke. Thinking about it now, perhaps they should close the Pink fishery in the off Pink years when there are very few of them that come through JDF.
On a side note....
- The Chilliwack vedder socks so far have been the worst return I have seen in 20 years. Been out almost every day so far since July 1 and to say their is minimal around would be an understatement! This run usually peaks out a few days ago in the river. Very very scary so far.
- Done a few trips up the Upper pitt in the last few weeks, though a bit early there is almost zero showing within the river. Usually by now there is a few around...
Yeah!” Ceremonial” fishery in the lower Fraser may have something to do with that...
Starting to see more jumpers in the north arm
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