2018 Columbia Returns

california

Well-Known Member
There is a website to monitor Columbia River fish returns (the monitor all salmon species, lampreys and Shad) and break down the Chinook into Spring, Summer and Fall runs. It gives the 2018 count, the 2017 count on the same day, and the ten year average. http://www.fpc.org/web/apps/adultsalmon/R_yeartodatecomparisontable_results.php

Since this run is so important to the BC fisheries, esp the WCVI it is interesting to monitor. The data showed the Spring run for adults was about 5% better than last year but 42% less than the 10 year average. The Spring jack count was bout 1/3 of last years count, and 1/4 of the 10 year average. The Spring run is finished, and it is now summer run. The summer adults so far have come in at 42,000 fish about 25% less than last year and 35% less than the ten year average. As with the Spring jacks, summer jacks are running at 1/3 of last year and over 80% less than the 10 year average.

The lower summer returns may partially explain some of the spotty fishing reported in some areas of the WCVI. The concerning number is the huge decline in returning jacks vs last year and vs the 10 year average. They come back one year earlier than the other cohorts in their brood years, so this may be an early indicator of even lower returns next year. It clearly isn't completely accurate, as the spring jack return last year was 30% less than the ten year average, while the Adult Spring return this year was over 40% less than the ten year average, but it was in the ballpark. If The jack returns this year are anywhere close to predicting adult returns next year it could be a very difficult year.

From the BPA website "State fisheries managers, known as the Columbia River Compact, rely on the chinook jack return as a key variable in models used to predict returns for the next year"
 
Fraser is slightly ahead of where it was last year as well but 2017 was a very very bad return year.

Comparing to 2014 and were down.

I haven't crushed the numbers on the skeena Tyee test fishery but just looking back at 2014 it doesn't seem like its overall that great so far this year. Gulf of alaska thats a important rearing area for many stocks has been not very productive.
 
The dam counts don't include the lower river runs that never see a dam, BUT the numbers here are probably a pretty good indicator for the lower river fish as they experience similar ocean conditions as smolts. We used to catch the summer runs like crazy in May-June in areas 123/124 & would get at least 1 over 30 every trip.
 
Almost 130,000 sockeye over Bonneville as of today. Traditionally half of the return has passed Bonneville by July 1, so we are likely looking at a total system run of a quarter million. The 2014 Okanagan run was 530,000 by itself. What happened?
 
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