All Things COVID-19

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bMcN said:
What do you mean "what it means on the population"? The IFR is the proportion of infected people who die, adjusted for risk factors like age. It's relevant for infected people, not the population. If you have an estimate of the proportion of a population that will be infected you can multiply it by the IFR to get an estimate of the proportion of he population that will die. But estimating the proportion that will be infected seems difficult given all the asymptomatic cases.

P.S. I guess the "lone scientist" you are referring to is John Ionnidis. He has a habit of being provocative, like his paper “Why most published research findings are false”, but he is quite well respected in health research. He seems a little out of step with the rest of the field in this case, but that doesn't mean he's wrong.
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My understanding is that IFR is the proportion who die when all those factors are taken into account until the population reaches herd immunity and the virus burns out. That's why you can use that number on a population that has no immunity to this new virus. Good reason why a vaccine is so important and we need to buy as much time as we can until then. There is a working paper that has taken a stab at calculating IFR.
https://www.cgdev.org/publication/p...-sex-comorbidities-and-health-system-capacity

I will see if I can find an official definition of IFR and post it here. WHO says what you said.
"IFR, the portion of all of those infected who die"
 
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For those who want to cut through the BS.

 
Corey_lax said:
Do you not see the costs to the economy of this “controlled” epidemic? It’s a lose lose situation.
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Yes, definitely a lose-lose situation. My point was that if you're going to calculate the cost-per-life of an intervention, you have to subtract off the cost of no intervention first.
 
bMcN said:
Yes, definitely a lose-lose situation. My point was that if you're going to calculate the cost-per-life of an intervention, you have to subtract off the cost of no intervention first.
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Hard to do as we don't know how many would have perished.

If we were the only country that used intervention I'd be more concerned, however, we were not as most countries are in at least somewhat similar position. Also the economy, regardless of Covid, was due to for a bit of correction. Economic indicators were predicting this well before the crisis. Covid did not cause the global slashing of crude prices. I think we need to look at this a bit differently.
 
Before this goes much deeper into the "opinion" based commentary here and it becomes anymore personal than it already has, a reminder that this thread was intended to be a place for information regarding the pandemic and was always going to be moderated that way. The difference in views being discussed here are another one of those dead end propositions where one side is never going to convince the other that there position is the "correct" one. Rather than it turning into an incessant back and forth, we will agree to disagree and get back to this being an informational thread only.
 
Admin said:
Before this goes much deeper into the "opinion" based commentary here and it becomes anymore personal than it already has, a reminder that this thread was intended to be a place for information regarding the pandemic and was always going to be moderated that way. The difference in views being discussed here are another one of those dead end propositions where one side is never going to convince the other that there position is the "correct" one. Rather than it turning into an incessant back and forth, we will agree to disagree and get back to this being an informational thread only.
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Fully agree that the thread should be about information but what do we do about misinformation. Do we let it stand without challenge thus spreading it to our members that are looking for reliable information? Hard to make the correct decisions when faced with unreliable data.
 
Who can determine “information” vs “disinformation”? Especially on a novel coronavirus? As in all science, we will learn as we go. Science almost never gives us absolute truths. As a practicing orthopedic surgeon I can can relate many things that were “information” and thought to be “true” 20 years ago and where now we have more data suggesting completely the opposite.
 
I think people on this forum are old enough and mature enough to determine for themselves how they want to interpret information. As long as we don't get drawn into the debate over who's information is the most correct we should be just fine.
 
Holy smokes have not been on in a few days as I’ve been on the island fishing.

Lots of people from Alberta. Guides leaving the dock every day with clients. Not one person wearing a mask on a guide boat no Social distancing what so ever.

The way some are talking you would think we are all still on house arrest. Not from my experience seems like pretty much everything is open now and people are out and about.

Honestly coming on here feels like the twilight zone. I had almost forgot we were still in a pandemic
 
I interact with the public quite a bit.
The vast majority of people are very frustrated.
This will become a societal problem once people do not believe the public health orders/pronouncements.
Dr. Bonnie Henry is universally lauded, but when she started to stray into the opiod problem, she risks falling from the podium.

I thought from the beginning that this would be a very interesting social experiment.
Medically, not very exciting, thankfully!
 
wildmanyeah said:
Holy smokes have not been on in a few days as I’ve been on the island fishing.

Lots of people from Alberta. Guides leaving the dock every day with clients. Not one person wearing a mask on a guide boat no Social distancing what so ever.

The way some are talking you would think we are all still on house arrest. Not from my experience seems like pretty much everything is open now and people are out and about.

Honestly coming on here feels like the twilight zone. I had almost forgot we were still in a pandemic
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Yah it's tough. I don't blame people for still being cautious and anxious. At the same time when you're out and about it just doesn't seem like anything is going on anymore. My entire family is starting to reconnect now but because my brother's In-Laws are still paranoid I haven't been able to get within 6 feet of my month old nephew. Meanwhile their 2 year old runs around and plays with other random kids at the park :mad:. THAT'S what bothers me is the hypocrisy in everyone's "rules". This has been a good reminder of the stupidity that is rampant in our society.
 
Looks like one of the youtube sailing couples ended up getting COVID-19 and as usual documented their experiences (or at least one of them since they arent together any more).
Looks like they had slightly different symptoms to start with and it lasted longer than usual.
 
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