All Things COVID-19

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For an accommodation to open when and that's when there allowed the protocols are extremely strict. By building design some won't be able to comply by the looks of it some will but it's an extensive list of must do's. The other hurtle say all goes well and phase 3 is implemented how small remote communities will respond is another thing. As we've been seeing areas are being cut off by the residents and I think that trend will continue. Time will tell either way it's going to be a very different summer whether travel is permitted in a small way or not at all. Cross the line travel I think we can all say is not going to happen, province to province who knows but it sure doesn't look good.
 
gon fishin said:
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How do you think this will relate to friends fishing on the same boat together? Or is that a federal matter??
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/...-hunting/fishing-and-hunting-covid-19-updates

Was updated yesterday

Perhaps it will change may 15, not sure?

These regs are relating to fresh water fishing Would fishing not fall into the category of small gatherings and not being ill ect ? A federal thing at best ?
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https://notices.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fns-sap/index-eng.cfm?pg=view_notice&DOC_ID=231503&ID=all
 
I think the reason why some people are confused by the response to this is because how obvious it is that the "data" and I use the term loosely, isn't even close to reality. Here is some basic math ...assume patient 1 was Dec 10th in Wuhan Meat Circus.(Conservatively)

Assume patient 2 was 4 days later. Lets say Dec 14th. Lets assume conservatively that doubling event of the virus is 5 days. To date that is 144 days since patient 2 in our little math problem. Note 5 days seems to be a farily conservative estimate for doubling but lets go with that. Take 144/5 = 29 doubling events

Plug 2 to the power of 29 into a calculator. 536,870,912 Covid 19 cases or 140 x more than what is being reported globally.

The cat was out of the bag long before we started with the lock down measures. This virus was here in early January and people were carrying on their normal lives. Think back to mid January. February, even March - were people dropping dead around you? was the world ending? Were you being told to stay home? Not work? Were we lighting money on fire handing out billions of dollars in CERB, wage subsidies, bankrupting family grown business'? Decimating the economy? Missing graduations, senior year, sports seasons. Some peope won't recover from this. There is a cost to the lockdown in real lives lost. There is a tradeoff. The fact that more people aren't asking why are we doing this is what disappoints me. Canadians were very quick to fall in line and take orders from this government. I mean, they have never let us down before- ICBC a monopoly of the car insurance wakes up with a billion dollar loss one year and acts suprised. DFO can't manage their way out of a wet paper bag to name a few. We are trusting the same bureaucrats with this respiratory virus response. Ask questions, do your own critical thinking. Don't be a lemming.
 
I heard a ton of, should, could, may, expected, probable and possible. I did not hear any wills but I am sure BC will follow when they see the rest of Canada open for business, even if at a somewhat reduced way. There fore I still see no definitely, looking for a guarantee that my flight to Ethiopia and then South Africa WILL leave as planned 24 June. Who cares when it returns as long as I get there. Need some real self isolating and social distancing with a PH.

HM
 
tightlines said:
I think the reason why some people are confused by the response to this is because how obvious it is that the "data" and I use the term loosely, isn't even close to reality. Here is some basic math ...assume patient 1 was Dec 10th in Wuhan Meat Circus.(Conservatively)

Assume patient 2 was 4 days later. Lets say Dec 14th. Lets assume conservatively that doubling event of the virus is 5 days. To date that is 144 days since patient 2 in our little math problem. Note 5 days seems to be a farily conservative estimate for doubling but lets go with that. Take 144/5 = 29 doubling events

Plug 2 to the power of 29 into a calculator. 536,870,912 Covid 19 cases or 140 x more than what is being reported globally.

The cat was out of the bag long before we started with the lock down measures. This virus was here in early January and people were carrying on their normal lives. Think back to mid January. February, even March - were people dropping dead around you? was the world ending? Were you being told to stay home? Not work? Were we lighting money on fire handing out billions of dollars in CERB, wage subsidies, bankrupting family grown business'? Decimating the economy? Missing graduations, senior year, sports seasons. Some peope won't recover from this. There is a cost to the lockdown in real lives lost. There is a tradeoff. The fact that more people aren't asking why are we doing this is what disappoints me. Canadians were very quick to fall in line and take orders from this government. I mean, they have never let us down before- ICBC a monopoly of the car insurance wakes up with a billion dollar loss one year and acts suprised. DFO can't manage their way out of a wet paper bag to name a few. We are trusting the same bureaucrats with this respiratory virus response. Ask questions, do your own critical thinking. Don't be a lemming.
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BANG ON Tightlines, no shaded glasses on you, finally common sense posted on here. Could not say better myself. Feeling the same.

Thanks

HM
 
I believe Canada is actually lagging behind most developed countries in terms of covid stimulus.

Can’t remember the figures but I think Canada is something like 8k per person.

Us is 10k and some other counties at 15k
 
wildmanyeah said:
I believe Canada is actually lagging behind most developed countries in terms of covid stimulus.

Can’t remember the figures but I think Canada is something like 8k per person.

Us is 10k and some other counties at 15k[/QUOTE

Wait what? $8,000 a head? Jfc
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tightlines said:
I think the reason why some people are confused by the response to this is because how obvious it is that the "data" and I use the term loosely, isn't even close to reality. Here is some basic math ...assume patient 1 was Dec 10th in Wuhan Meat Circus.(Conservatively)

Assume patient 2 was 4 days later. Lets say Dec 14th. Lets assume conservatively that doubling event of the virus is 5 days. To date that is 144 days since patient 2 in our little math problem. Note 5 days seems to be a farily conservative estimate for doubling but lets go with that. Take 144/5 = 29 doubling events

Plug 2 to the power of 29 into a calculator. 536,870,912 Covid 19 cases or 140 x more than what is being reported globally.

The cat was out of the bag long before we started with the lock down measures. This virus was here in early January and people were carrying on their normal lives. Think back to mid January. February, even March - were people dropping dead around you? was the world ending? Were you being told to stay home? Not work? Were we lighting money on fire handing out billions of dollars in CERB, wage subsidies, bankrupting family grown business'? Decimating the economy? Missing graduations, senior year, sports seasons. Some peope won't recover from this. There is a cost to the lockdown in real lives lost. There is a tradeoff. The fact that more people aren't asking why are we doing this is what disappoints me. Canadians were very quick to fall in line and take orders from this government. I mean, they have never let us down before- ICBC a monopoly of the car insurance wakes up with a billion dollar loss one year and acts suprised. DFO can't manage their way out of a wet paper bag to name a few. We are trusting the same bureaucrats with this respiratory virus response. Ask questions, do your own critical thinking. Don't be a lemming.
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I definitely think there is something to this. I have been arguing from day one that it makes no sense that we would have so few cases in Vancouver, all things considered.

It also makes no sense that our extremely low rate of serious illness is due solely to social distancing - if that were the case, Quebec would be doing much better: their numbers as per Google's anonymized data have been the best in the country by far; for six weeks their public space activity has been 70% below normal. BC has been something like 45% below normal IIRC. But our presence in public parks is about 65% ABOVE normal.

So what is the story there? We don't know. If I had to make some guesses, though...

1) staying home, specifically, may not be a great idea. If all your time is indoors with infected people, your odds of contracting it yourself probably increase significantly. What with the late winter weather back east, people may well have been staying inside, in temperature controlled, humidity controlled environments that are great for viruses.

2) Quebecers love their institutions. Their rate of care home use for the elderly is about three times the Canadian average. Grouping the elderly together in communal areas is really asking for it.

3) We may well have already had a much greater infection rate, and consequently already be much closer to herd immunity than anyone expects. The more prison studies we see, the more likely this looks.

We'll see, there could easily be other factors. But practically everyone I know went to the same trade show in Vegas in January - I skipped it this year because I hate Vegas, luckily - and lots came back extremely sick. At the time, there was no talk about Chinese Choke'N'Stroke in the western world. But in retrospect, many of these people suspect this as a possibility.

If the spread is closer to the Stanford study numbers, then chances are the reason we're on the downslope is more related to high asymptomatic infection rates than to any specific steps we're taking. That may not be the case, but it would help to explain why much more aggressive social distancing in Quebec hasn't worked as well as the much more relaxed approach we're taking in BC.
 
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tightlines said:
I think the reason why some people are confused by the response to this is because how obvious it is that the "data" and I use the term loosely, isn't even close to reality. Here is some basic math ...assume patient 1 was Dec 10th in Wuhan Meat Circus.(Conservatively)

Assume patient 2 was 4 days later. Lets say Dec 14th. Lets assume conservatively that doubling event of the virus is 5 days. To date that is 144 days since patient 2 in our little math problem. Note 5 days seems to be a farily conservative estimate for doubling but lets go with that. Take 144/5 = 29 doubling events

Plug 2 to the power of 29 into a calculator. 536,870,912 Covid 19 cases or 140 x more than what is being reported globally.

The cat was out of the bag long before we started with the lock down measures. This virus was here in early January and people were carrying on their normal lives. Think back to mid January. February, even March - were people dropping dead around you? was the world ending? Were you being told to stay home? Not work? Were we lighting money on fire handing out billions of dollars in CERB, wage subsidies, bankrupting family grown business'? Decimating the economy? Missing graduations, senior year, sports seasons. Some peope won't recover from this. There is a cost to the lockdown in real lives lost. There is a tradeoff. The fact that more people aren't asking why are we doing this is what disappoints me. Canadians were very quick to fall in line and take orders from this government. I mean, they have never let us down before- ICBC a monopoly of the car insurance wakes up with a billion dollar loss one year and acts suprised. DFO can't manage their way out of a wet paper bag to name a few. We are trusting the same bureaucrats with this respiratory virus response. Ask questions, do your own critical thinking. Don't be a lemming.
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It's a little more complicated that this. Better leave it to the experts. I think Daniel Coombs at UBC is doing the modelling for BC. You can see a slightly out-of-date talk he gave at https://www.math.ubc.ca/~coombs/Coombs.CoronaTalk.Mar19.pdf if you want to learn more.
 
tightlines said:
Think back to mid January. February, even March - were people dropping dead around you? was the world ending? .
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No.....but look what has happened since mid-March. Look at the states that have shrugged this off; I was to be in Louisiana for meetings in the third week of March and I am sure happy I rescheduled.

What if......"I work in a poultry plant in southern Alberta however am off work for a certain reason.....BUT.....I am in town for a bit. Would you take me out fishing?" ;):rolleyes:;):rolleyes:

I do agree that everyone has their hand in the cookie jar. The agriculture industry asking for $2.5B.....this can only be due to restaurant demands shutting down as the entire population still needs to eat. My wife and I still go to the grocery store, still eat meat, still eat produce, still eat the grains that we did.
 
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https://vancouversun.com/news/covid-19-tracking-the-virus-with-genomic-breadcrumbs/

COVID-19: Tracking the virus with genomic breadcrumbs

• A sample collected on Feb. 16 from a 35-year-old female with an exposure traced to Asia showed no mutations from the Wuhan baseline.

• Days later, a 43-year-old man with an exposure related to Asia showed two mutations, but belonged to the same branch.

• By the first week of March, a new clade was detected in B.C. with an exposure history traced to the United States, while another clade was related to outbreaks in Europe.

• Samples collected during the second week of March were not immediately attributable to overseas travel, suggesting the virus was spreading through local communities.

By March 15, at least nine separate branches of transmission are evident, with multiple infections arriving from the United States, according to the visualization created by Nextstrain.

Nextstrain co-founder Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at Seattle-based Fred Hutch Cancer Research Center, believes that the virus mutates every second or third transmission.

“The analogy I like to give is the game of telephone,” he said in a Q&A published by the Fred Hutch centre. “There are errors that occur as (the message) gets passed on, and can reveal who spoke to who.”

All the genomes collected in Wuhan have a common ancestor dating back to about late November, meaning it has only recently emerged in humans, he says.

Taking note of the position and order of the mutations allows researchers to determine whether a person was infected through community transmission or whether the virus recently arrived from another country, said Dr. William Gibson, an investigator at the B.C. Children’s Hospital Research Institute.
 
EXco_LIVAAE0MUR

The highlights:

  • 33 more people have been diagnosed with COVID-19.
  • 2 more people have died in the past 24 hours.
  • There have been a total of 2,288 cases and 126 people have died.
  • 76 people are in hospital, 20 in intensive care.
  • 1,512 people have recovered.
  • No new outbreaks in long-term care homes, 18 previous outbreaks declared over.
  • 21 active outbreaks remain in long-term care homes.
  • Outbreaks remain at three B.C. poultry plants.
  • 134 cases at Mission Correctional Institution.
  • 16 cases related to Kearl Lake oilsands facility in Alberta.
  • Restrictions set to ease by long weekend but health officials urge continued vigilance.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-covid19-update-may-7-1.5560298
 
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