All Things COVID-19

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Pippen said:
@SpringVelocity

Am I missing something about your graphs but Africa is nowhere near that high in deaths.
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Your looking at total deaths in stacked graph. It is just looking at percentage of the total. So if look at top of that graph you see Africa is not much at all. You can see the blip China added deaths that they miscounted.

The first chart tells a story. Controlled early lock downs do work, but they don't work when you do them too late. Clearly the data doesn't lie that Sweden's choice would be a disaster here, and UK was just plain irresponsible. You can see Canada is doing a slow gradually rise /lower death rate. Just look at how the data looks.

One thing I didn't show was Taiwan. Apparently they did better than anyone. They ramped up testing, but more important they are testing using random sampling. Looks they already had everything set-up in January.

The face mask thing is stupid. Should have been mandatory in all grocery stores etc. in beginning. The more I read on it I can't believe were not doing it.
 
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SpringVelocity said:
The face mask thing is stupid. Should have been mandatory in all grocery stores etc. in beginning. The more I read on it I can't believe were not doing it.
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I do agree with this. Not trying to be a racial profiler but when I do have to go out for supplies for the home the bulk of people wearing masks are eastern Asian. I wonder if in those countries the prevalence of people wearing masks did have an impact as you refer to Taiwan and what we've heard about South Korea.
 
Pippen said:
I do agree with this. Not trying to be a racial profiler but when I do have to go out for supplies for the home the bulk of people wearing masks are eastern Asian. I wonder if in those countries the prevalence of people wearing masks did have an impact as you refer to Taiwan and what we've heard about South Korea.
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Looks like face masks are mandatory in Taiwan. I think the stumbling block here is people in North America are paranoid, and and don't want to be monitored. Taiwan's approach using phones would be a tough sell. The conspiracy theories would be endless. But still they only had 6 deaths and are way over curve.


https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/tai...be-seen-as-extreme-to-canadians-but-it-works/

The Taiwanese approach is one of careful and intensive monitoring and surveillance, and it seems to be working. When you land at the airport, before deplaning, you are required to file a report about your health from your cell phone using an official QR code, and your temperature is taken while still on the aircraft. Surgical masks are worn in public with a two-fold rationale: first, although the masks are not very effective in protecting the wearer, they’re used on the rationale that some protection is better than none; and second, if everyone wears them, anyone who is virus-positive without knowing it, will naturally be shedding less to others. They are distributed to everyone by the government and available in all 7-Eleven stores.
 
Here is albertas from just the other day. Nevermind weeks ago. Even it is clearly out to lunch. Can see the probable line...compared to reality (bars)
 

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New York modelling originally said over 100000 beds needed. Ended up being in 18,000. Nevermind deaths and cases models Literally every jurisdiction is like this
 

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SerengetiGuide said:
New York modelling originally said over 100000 beds needed. Ended up being in 20,000’s. Nevermind deaths and cases models Literally every jurisdiction is like this
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You're smart, you understand human behaviour factors into these...and that being shocked into reality (I.e. governments dismissing covid until they are hit with projections of hundreds of thousands of deaths) will invalidate the assumptions of the model.

Not that it's a bad thing, but it doesnt mean the models were wrong. Just that the instant they were presented, they impacted how people treated this disease.
 
Absolutely human behaviour did but the original models I am showing also included social distancing into them. For example, modelling done by Ontario first week of April said 80,000 cases by today with the restrictions they had/have in place right now. There's 16,000 today. They said deaths would be almost double what they are as well. (Can post model if you would like). Yes human behaviour factors in but they had already factored that into these models. Every single model has been wayyyy high. And this is what our politicians are using to make decisions. My point is they are over restricting due to this. Don't twist my words and say I want everything open. Not what I'm saying.
 
The more I see/read the bigger BS this whole thing has become, all numbers can and are being disputed, discounted and argued depending on what side of the fence you sit on, equally as can why, who, and where it came from. But lets still remember perspective, an est 9 million people died annually from starvation and lack of nutrition related issues before Covid. That's fact and very few gave a ****. What I do think is next years new Trudopes "COVID" tax will hit us harder and have further reaching implications than Covid did. But that's just my opinion.

Cant wait.

HM
 
SerengetiGuide said:
Absolutely human behaviour did but the original models I am showing also included social distancing into them. For example, modelling done by Ontario first week of April said 80,000 cases by today with the restrictions they had/have in place right now. There's 16,000 today. They said deaths would be almost double what they are as well. (Can post model if you would like). Yes human behaviour factors in but they had already factored that into these models. Every single model has been wayyyy high. And this is what our politicians are using to make decisions. My point is they are over restricting due to this. Don't twist my words and say I want everything open. Not what I'm saying.
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I think you may have misunderstood the press conference and models that were presented in Ontario back in April 3, 2020. Here is the links that you can read so that you can clear that up.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6773486/ontario-coronavirus-covid19-number-modelling/
Coronavirus: Ontario projects just under 1,600 COVID-19 deaths, 80,000 cases by end of April

Ontario government has revealed projection numbers for the province to be just under 1,600 COVID-19 deaths and 80,000 cases by the end of April, if the current measures in place are upheld.
....
He went on to announce several more closures of business in the province, including numerous construction sites.
....
Ontario reported 462 new COVID-19 cases on Friday, bringing the provincial total to 3,255 including 67 deaths and 1,023 resolved cases.
-30-

https://news.ontario.ca/opo/en/2020...sparency-by-releasing-covid-19-modelling.html
News Release
Ontario Provides Full Transparency by Releasing COVID-19 Modelling
Projected number of cases and deaths can be significantly reduced if people stay home
April 3, 2020 3:45 P.M.

TORONTO - Today, the Ontario government released extensive COVID-19 modelling, revealing several scenarios that project the potential number of cases and deaths. In doing so, the province is providing the public with full transparency about the consequences should everyone but essential workers fail to stay home and practice physical distancing.

"The models show that the potential to spread COVID-19 is massive and deadly if we don't act swiftly to stay home and practise physical distancing," said Premier Ford. "We owe it to our frontline and essential workers, to our family, friends and neighbours to restrict our travel, and act responsibly. This is the only way we are going to minimize the risk to people, stop the spread and reduce the number of fatalities."

Key highlights from the modelling include:

  • While COVID-19 impacts Ontarians of all ages, those over the age of 60 face higher risk of severe disease leading to higher mortality rates. The data demonstrates the need to focus public health measures on protecting seniors.
  • Had Ontario taken no action, the impact of COVID-19 would have risen to an estimated 300,000 cases and an estimated death toll of 6,000 people.
  • Due to timely public health measures, Ontario has avoided much more dire impacts, preventing an estimated 220,000 cases and 4,400 deaths to date.
  • Over the course of the pandemic, between 3,000 and 15,000 deaths related to COVID-19 are predicted with current public health measures in place, compared to a total projected 100,000 deaths if no action were taken.
  • By taking further measures, Ontario can further reduce the number of cases and deaths related to COVID-19 down to projections as low as 12,500 additional cases and 200 additional deaths by the end of April.
On the advice of the Chief Medical Officer of Health, Ontario will continue to take decisive action to stop the spread of COVID-19. Most recently, the province banned organized public events and social gatherings of more than five people and closed all outdoor recreational amenities, such as sports fields and playgrounds. At the same time, the province's COVID-19 Command Table has been implementing extensive measures to build health-system capacity to prepare for increased hospitalizations.

"Ontario is entering a critical juncture in our fight against COVID-19," said Christine Elliott, Deputy Premier and Minister of Health. "The numbers released today are sobering. While they reveal a disastrous path, they also serve as a call to arms for greater action. We have for months now been preparing for this very moment, but to avoid the worst-case scenario we are relying on every Ontarian to stay home to stop the spread of this virus. Lives depend on the public heeding this advice."

"We feel is it important to be transparent with the public about the challenges we are facing, and the important work we all need to do to flatten the curve," said Dr. Peter Donnelly, President and CEO of Public Health Ontario. "How this outbreak unfolds is in the hands of the public, in all of your hands. We can change the outcomes by how we all stay at home and physically distance ourselves."

Visit Ontario's website to learn more about how the province continues to protect Ontarians from COVID-19 or to take a self assessment.
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Ontario COVID-19 Modelling April 3, 2020
https://files.ontario.ca/po-covid-19-technical-briefing-en-2020-04-03.pdf


So let's do the math
Ontario reported 462 new COVID-19 cases on Friday, bringing the provincial total to 3,255 including 67 deaths and 1,023 resolved cases.

By taking further measures, Ontario can further reduce the number of cases and deaths related to COVID-19 down to projections as low as 12,500 additional cases and 200 additional deaths by the end of April.
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3,255 + 12,500 = 15,755 total cases projected
67 + 200 = 267 total deaths projected

Actual as of April 30, 2020
16,187 cases
1,082 deaths

Clearly they were wrong on the deaths but were very close on the total cases. It's hard to predict what happens to the numbers when covid gets into the long term homes as we have found in other places.

PS. Glad you got out there for some exercise yesterday as that will keep you well.
 
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