All Things COVID-19

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islandboy said:
The best explanation of the hazard we face:
spanish-flu-coronavirus.jpg

Note the first bump in June 1918, then the effect second wave had.
https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228841
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Penicillin wasn’t even invented for ten years after that graph....
 
ryanb said:
You know,

A lot of people have responded to your positions with level responses. But you haven't acknowledged any of them that don't fit your position.

A low death rate over a long time vs a high death rate over a short time still equals the same number of deaths. We only have around 100 people in hospital with around 5000 empty beds...the health care system isn't even close to overwhelmed, here or in Sweden.

Just to be clear, the way I see this is that whatever way we approach this we're screwed. Let it rip and there's massive death and economic ruin. Flatten the curve and the death and economic ruin comes anyway, it just takes longer. It's hard for optimists to see we're in an impossible situation...and Canadians are optimists. I've never been accused of being one though.
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Ryan, I'll acknowledge you and say that your premise is incorrect:
Death rate means the number of deaths per thousand population, for example, over a fixed period of time. The fixed time is ultimately the period until which a vaccine is readily available - maybe a year or so away. Therefore, if we follow restriction guidelines and flatten the curve, fewer people will die in the period than if we allow Covid 19 to run rampant.

Economic ruin, as you predict, is by no means a certainty. Most of our economy is intact: the hospitals are open and health workers are on the job. I can put gas in my car, go to the bank, buy groceries, go for a walk, watch netflix. I have running water, heat and power. My garbage gets picked up. Many people take on the risk and work very hard to keep our lives as normal as possible during these trying times. They deserve our gratitude.

Yes, some people are struggling but government supports are in place to soften the economic impact of this virus. Soon, some restrictions will be lifted so you can visit a grandchild, go to the dentist and also get your haircut. Most people will come out the other side of this if we cooperate. All considered, we are doing well. We live in a great province in a great country. Count your blessings.
 
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SerengetiGuide said:
In fairness I don’t think comparing it directly
To the 1918 Spanish flu is all that valid. Technology, hospitalization methods, etc are so much different. The whole world knew about the covid pandemic in one to two days pretty much. Back then, wouldn’t know about it till you got it or possibly read a paper. Think one reason all the models and projections have been SO far off and too high

ps SV have a minor in economics ...so would say I know more than you on the subject...but am by no means an expert
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Islandboy may what to correct me but I think his point is that we need to be thinking of the second wave, next fall, as that may be much worse than current season. Spend the summer preparing, when things calm down, and get ready for the fall. History may not repeat but sometimes it rhymes.
 
Corey_lax said:
Penicillin wasn’t even invented for ten years after that graph....
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Not sure what that means but you do know that penicillin is for bacterial infections and have no effect on viral infections. If I'm mistaken on your point, sorry.
 
Foxsea said:
Ryan, I'll acknowledge you and say that your premise is incorrect:
Death rate means the number of deaths per thousand population, for example, over a fixed period of time. The fixed time is ultimately the period until which a vaccine is readily available - maybe a year or so away. Therefore, if we follow restriction guidelines and flatten the curve, fewer people will die in the period than if we allow Covid 19 to run rampant.

Economic ruin, as you predict, is by no means a certainty. Most of our economy is intact: the hospitals are open and health workers are on the job. I can put gas in my car, go to the bank, buy groceries, go for a walk, watch netflix. I have running water, heat and power. My garbage gets picked up. Many people take on the risk and work very hard to keep our lives as normal as possible during these trying times. They deserve our gratitude.

Yes, some people are struggling but government supports are in place to soften the economic impact of this virus. Soon, some restrictions will be lifted so you can visit a grandchild, go to the dentist and also get your haircut. Most people will come out the other side of this if we cooperate. All considered, we are doing well. We live in a great province in a great country. Count your blessings.
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Bang on. I suspect that with the whole world working on this problem we will see some solutions within months. Maybe not a vaccine but treatment that improves the odds of survival and then we can all get back to work and treat those that need it. Till then we need to buy time.
 
GLG said:
Islandboy may what to correct me but I think his point is that we need to be thinking of the second wave, next fall, as that may be much worse than current season. Spend the summer preparing, when things calm down, and get ready for the fall. History may not repeat but sometimes it rhymes.
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Spot on. We have been given the warning.
Put in a big garden, drop yourself a moose and remember what my Grandmother told me:
Feed the gypsies when they arrive, that way you eat your neighbors chicken and don't lose yours.
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And there will be gypsies.
 
GLG said:
Not sure what that means but you do know that penicillin is for bacterial infections and have no effect on viral infections. If I'm mistaken on your point, sorry.
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I’m not talking about penicillin being used for Covid. But Spanish flu was a bacterial infection, and they didn’t have penicillin to help fight it off. I’m just saying they were harder off at fighting off Spanish flu than we are with Covid even though we don’t have a vaccine.

I guess my main point is that the two pandemics don’t need to be compared side by side because they are different and we have way better medical treatments now than 100 years ago
 
Thank you Gov. Cuomo, there is hope.
Starts at 23:30
 
Corey_lax said:
I’m not talking about penicillin being used for Covid. But Spanish flu was a bacterial infection, and they didn’t have penicillin to help fight it off. I’m just saying they were harder off at fighting off Spanish flu than we are with Covid even though we don’t have a vaccine.

I guess my main point is that the two pandemics don’t need to be compared side by side because they are different and we have way better medical treatments now than 100 years ago
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The Spanish Flu of 1918 was indeed an H1N1 virus. However, analysis of medical journals from the period of the pandemic found that the viral infection was no more aggressive than previous influenza strains. Instead, malnourishment, overcrowded medical camps and hospitals, and poor hygiene promoted bacterial superinfection. This superinfection killed most of the victims, typically after a somewhat prolonged illness.
 
SpringVelocity said:
It is against the provincial health officer order flat out. It's not ridiculous. If you get caught you can be fined. It's selfish for the rest of us complying and too other members of the community. You can't social distance on a boat.
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I disagree, not with the fact that you should comply, but until I see an actual ticket has been issued I am skeptical. I have looked for any indication that RCMP are writing tickets and to date this is what I have found( see below, the bold is theirs) Seems clear to me unless a new directive was issued by the BC Centre for a Disease Control or I see an actual ticket was issued to a boater I’m calling BS. If someone actually was ticketed and they post it, please accept my apology. I have a query currently in with the Solicitor Generals Office regarding this. Three day later still crickets, it seems to me this is an urban myth.


NOTE: Police officers and C&EOs are not empowered to enforce (i.e. ticket or detain) with respect to public health orders. Their role is to provide assistance only when called upon by a health officer pursuant to section 90 of the Public Health Act .

 
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/h..._compliance_and_enforcement_march_31_2020.pdf
Here’s a link to the ticketing process which is why I’m so interested in people who have been ticketed. As I said I agree with social distancing, but clearly the size of boat needs to be factored in. I can find no evidence anyone is being ticketed, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but if it is happening a guy would be crazy to pay the fine IMO. Having said that let’s keep up the social distancing part.
 
SerengetiGuide said:
In fairness I don’t think comparing it directly
To the 1918 Spanish flu is all that valid. Technology, hospitalization methods, etc are so much different. The whole world knew about the covid pandemic in one to two days pretty much. Back then, wouldn’t know about it till you got it or possibly read a paper. Think one reason all the models and projections have been SO far off and too high

ps SV have a minor in economics ...so would say I know more than you on the subject...but am by no means an expert
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Acknowledging your last comment re: not an expert, SG. But... being an economist does not make one an expert in epidemiology, SG. I say this respectfully - but I really have ZERO faith in economists, in general. They are somewhere between a preacher and a used car salesman that is good in math, IMHO. The "science" of economic theory is not a science and would fail if the same rigid requirements of vetted and published science were applied to the theories of economy. Scientific theory needs to be supported by data and accepted economic theory has failed too many times.

In any event I do believe that most economists are well-intended. But.. like all humans - are subject to bias and indoctrination. and this COVID - is not in the field of economic theory but rather health sciences. So.. I will listen to the health experts who are learning like the rest of us.
 
Corey_lax said:
Death rate is 1-2% would be of the people that got corona virus, not the world population. Not to mention the carriers that have zero negative effects of the virus and didn’t even get confirmed tests. . 0.04% of people in BC have or had confirmed corona cases so don’t let some story make you believe that you’re going to lose 1-2 of your friends or family.
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I wasn't, but thanks for pointing that out for those may have gathered that from the post. I think that the original poster was using the numbers as a generalization. It shouldn't matter what the numbers are.
 
thinking about taking the boat out to nanaimo and victoria this weekend and maybe bits of the sunshine coast. whats the status and can i drop by for food/shopping etc or is everything like a ghost town everywhere ?
 
So a good friend of mine whom I will not mention was onto the seriosness of Covid 19 at the top of January. He was following the issue closely and in full reaction mode before the start of February. The details of the this persons reaction are private.
The one detail which this person told me about when we first started lock down was the issues with ventilators and how there were better treatment options ie CPAP machine. Interesting that this has started to reach the news cycle now event tho the info was out there months ago.
Anyway this fella directed me to this Doctor that is following the pandemic at an international level. Lots of good info coming from this guy i believe. He's a doctor and giving information daily in a format that average guys like myself can understand. This is great info and free of partisan politics IMHO which is so important and being flopped here in North America.
Here is his post for April 24:
 
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