All Things COVID-19

Status
Not open for further replies.
Mortality rate worldwide is 4.8% and in Canada is 1%. BUT that’s not the actual mortality rate as most cases are people that are at home self isolating and not counted in the total case count. So actual mortality rate is much much lower

You are right-my daughter has it for sure-all the symptoms but because she is young and healthy -no test given-ergo-not a confirmed case- so not counted. How many are like that??
 
You are right-my daughter has it for sure-all the symptoms but because she is young and healthy -no test given-ergo-not a confirmed case- so not counted. How many are like that??


Most are. They only test those that are high risk or have serious symptoms. So most cases aren’t counted in the case amount and therefore factored in to mortality rate
 
I don't think focussing on the tested numbers is particularly helpful in determining the total number of people who might have the virus since the testing protocols are clearly set such that only a subset of the people with the virus are going to be tested.

Frankly, I think that the two most important numbers to watch are the # hospitalized and # in ICU . They are the ones that are going to tax our hospital system. The other two interesting numbers are the number dying and the number recovering, as presumably they are a subset of the number of people tested.
 
I don't think focussing on the tested numbers is particularly helpful in determining the total number of people who might have the virus since the testing protocols are clearly set such that only a subset of the people with the virus are going to be tested.

Frankly, I think that the two most important numbers to watch are the # hospitalized and # in ICU . They are the ones that are going to tax our hospital system. The other two interesting numbers are the number dying and the number recovering, as presumably they are a subset of the number of people tested.
Absolutely. Apples to apples as that is what they are doing in most other countries.
What is missing in this discussion is that it is not just a quick test. Each test requires a complete change of PPE so as not to contaminate the results of the next person.
A test for peace of mind costs those in the front lines much needed PPE gear. Quite a cost as a negative test on someone who does not meet the criteria is a waste. The very next day they could be infected and then NEED the PPE on the health care worker that is trying to save your life.
 
  • Like
Reactions: GLG
Mortality rate worldwide is 4.8% and in Canada is 1%. BUT that’s not the actual mortality rate as most cases are people that are at home self isolating and not counted in the total case count. So actual mortality rate is much much lower
BC is running around 2% of confirmed cases but the average age is up there. Valid point and have to agree that the rate will be lower once we start testing for covid-19 antibodies (not tested but had virus).
EUemaR-XgAoJM51


Add a link to the report
http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/BC_Surveillance_Summary_March_31.pdf
 
Last edited:
I think there's going to be quite a few independent study results coming out to show this is not just droplet transfer but also airborne. Pretty simple math to figure out that that many people in such a short amount of time couldn't possibly all have gotten it by direct contact. Especially since so many of the infected have stated they had not been around anyone directly before testing positive with it. Lot's of professionals in the field have been saying this since very early on.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/28/8232...dence-on-coronavirus-transmission-through-air
Thanks for the link. Error on the side of caution are words to live by on this one.
 
 
US has confirmed, in the last 24hrs, one third of China’s total cases. What a complete crock coming out of China.
When you compare infection rates per million people, China’s reported numbers are laughable.
I try to only read my news from reputable sources like CBC, the BBC and the like. All these posted links from these unheard of sites are just not worth reading.
 
Maybe it is me but the bc CDC is reporting like a 50% recovery rate, while say Italy (hardly apples to apples) is around 14%. Are we doing that much of a better job with treatment than other regions? Italy is severely overwhelmed no question. I'm sure there are many more factors such as age of patients, etc.
 
Maybe it is me but the bc CDC is reporting like a 50% recovery rate, while say Italy (hardly apples to apples) is around 14%. Are we doing that much of a better job with treatment than other regions? Italy is severely overwhelmed no question. I'm sure there are many more factors such as age of patients, etc.

yes. We are doing much better in BC than most of the world. Italy was totally overwhelmed and population didn’t take it seriously to add to the population dynamics are made for lots of fatalities. Oldest country in the world by avg age
 
yes. We are doing much better in BC than most of the world. Italy was totally overwhelmed and population didn’t take it seriously to add to the population dynamics are made for lots of fatalities. Oldest country in the world by avg age

For infection rate I completely agree, hope that rate remains. But the recovery rate, I wonder how our treatment protocols differ than other areas? Score another for Super, Natural BC...
 
Europe is a completely different animal then BC.

Population density, life style..socializing ect...even how we shop for our food
 
I don't think focussing on the tested numbers is particularly helpful in determining the total number of people who might have the virus since the testing protocols are clearly set such that only a subset of the people with the virus are going to be tested.

Frankly, I think that the two most important numbers to watch are the # hospitalized and # in ICU . They are the ones that are going to tax our hospital system. The other two interesting numbers are the number dying and the number recovering, as presumably they are a subset of the number of people tested.

I think the state of the health care system is also a good indicator of the severity of this virus ability to harm a society because it speaks to the ability of a society to cope with it. Things like how many patients that have been denied critical care beds, oxygen or ventilators that would have received them if they were available and how many medical staff have caught it, died from it or have had severe disease and lung damage.

I also think that we won't really know the numbers of the infected and dead until long after this pandemic is years over, antibody tests are widely available and the epidemiologist have done the cross year death comparisons and mathematical modeling world wide. I do think it will be much higher than people think now.
 
Last edited:
I think the state of the health care system is a good indicator of the severity of this virus ability to harm a society because it speaks to the ability of a society to cope with it. Things like how many patients who have been denied critical care beds, oxygen or ventilators that would have received them if they were available and how many medical staff have caught it, died from it or have had severe disease and lung damage.

I also think that we won't really know the numbers of the infected and dead until long after this pandemic is years over, antibody tests are widely available and the epidemiologist have done the cross year death comparisons and mathematical modeling. I do think it will be much higher than people think now.
Everyone in Italy smokes. Like everyone. For your 12th birthday you gwt a barrel of wine and a carton of Benson and Hedges.
 
Best case scenario': COVID-19 measures expected to last until July, government document says

https://nationalpost.com/news/best-case-scenario-covid-19-measures-expected-to-last-until-july-government-document-says

COVID-19 likely part of B.C. life until summer, says Dr. Henry; five more deaths

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-p...e-until-summer-says-dr-henry-five-more-deaths


“I do think it’s more and more less likely that we’re going to be able to get back to full normal life, which I miss a lot, before at least the summer,” said Henry. “Then we need to start preparing ourselves for the potential of a second wave in the fall.”
 
Last edited:
Best case scenario': COVID-19 measures expected to last until July, government document says

https://nationalpost.com/news/best-...d-to-last-until-july-government-document-says

I see they mentioned the possibility of a 2nd wave, which is turning up more and more in modeling and discussion. The 1918 and 1968 novel virus pandemics did not end after the first wave but rather went on for a year or two killing people at decreasing rates over time and this virus may well follow that model unless we get a good treatment soon and/or an early mass produced, available and effective vaccine.

Worst case scenario, --- We beat it back now and into the early summer with massive cost, effort, isolation, and with the help of the warmer weather and summer social patterns. The govt. faces huge pressure to get the economy full blown open again and completely relents. The cold weather hits in the fall with the schools open (little disease spreaders that they are), business has gone through all the substantial start up costs and then it hits us all over again, almost as bad as the first wave we are dealing with now and evoking almost as severe a response to cope with it.
 
Last edited:
Maybe it is me but the bc CDC is reporting like a 50% recovery rate, while say Italy (hardly apples to apples) is around 14%. Are we doing that much of a better job with treatment than other regions? Italy is severely overwhelmed no question. I'm sure there are many more factors such as age of patients, etc.
So much of the numbers game is not going to translate, though, because of the different testing protocols in different countries.

Italy being overwhelmed, there's no way they can afford to test and test and test, confirming that minor cases are now completely recovered, etc. We can't even do that; globally it seems about the only people who can really do it are the Germans. So you can't take the Italian "recovered" numbers very seriously...there's just no way they're doing any testing that isn't absolutely necessary. I would guess their total case numbers are ten times their confirmed numbers at a bare minimum; probably a lot more than that. On the plus side, this means that their mortality rate isn't as bad as it looks, and their recovery rate is better than it looks, partly because they don't have the resources to throw at adding people to the officially recovered stats.


I would be hesitant to compare numbers across very many countries; Germany and South Korea seem to have the testing game dialed in way better than most and the Koreans were innovative and well-equipped from the get-go and got people into mass testing and everybody wearing masks while here, they were still telling everyone that masks wouldn't help in the hopes that they'd be able to stock up the hospital system, which was totally underequipped. In fact I haven't checked in the last couple of days; maybe Health Canada is still pretending masks won't help the average person? At any rate, clearly untrue but most people would have a hard time getting them right now anyway, since the global supply chain is so haywire.

And the Germans are testing on a scale would even impress the Koreans...they probably have the most accurate picture of the whole situation out of anyone. I would treat their numbers as the best indication of what it does in a powerful, industrial country and it looks like for the moment, a mortality rate somewhere around 1% of known cases is probably about right. Although I think ultimately it will stabilize at more like half that, probably less, because even the Germans aren't conducting random tests on a mass scale, nor is there any serology testing that I've heard of to test for the presence of antibodies in people who were sick and recovered, or were asymptomatic and never had any idea they were sick at all.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top