FR Sockeye/Pink

Peahead

Well-Known Member
Sockeye:
For pre-season planning
purposes, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal
chance of a higher or lower return) of 4,795,000 fish for all management
groups. This is similar to the cycle average of 4.789 million. The largest
contributing stocks for the 2019 return are expected to be the Chilko,
Stellako, Quesnel and Early Shuswap.

Pink:
For pre-season planning purposes, the Fraser
Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal chance of a higher or
lower return) of 5,018,600 pink salmon. This is well below the long term
average of 12.7 million.
 
I read through this entire press release, it sounded like our opening/closures is about as scientific as a flip of a coin ! It could be this or that, it might be big or small, so we’re basing your businesses and vacation plans on a 50-50 shot it might be one way or the other! OMG , as I stand on shore watching nobody fishing and now understand the decision making process that goes into our dfo modeling of future fisheries I am genuinely disgusted at what can only be described as amateur hour. ! Pray for help people. I know it’s likely not an exact science but I was at least hoping it WAS SCIENCE.
 
Its because they don't have a clue on ocean survivability. The difference between 1% survival and 2% is huge. 500 million smolts leave the river 1% survival 5 million fish come back and 2% 10 million fish come back.

While they have tones of models the error in the models for ocean survivability is a big unknown.
 
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